The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*
- I’m in a 12-team, 8-keeper PPR league. I have a deep roster, but my “superstars” have flaws. I just gave up Tyler Eifert, Phillip Dorsett, Ameer Abdullah and my first round pick (likely #7-11 overall) for Antonio Brown. What do you think? – Johnny in VA
I don’t hate it, although I think it’s a bit of an overpay. When it comes to deals like these, where multiple young or unproven assets are given up for a stud like Antonio Brown, I like to break the components down into how I’d valuate them as draft picks and go from there. Tyler Eifert is easily worth a high first round pick, and Ameer Abdullah is worth one in the 1.08-1.12 range. The first round picks is, well, obviously worth a first round pick, and Phillip Dorsett is likely worth a solid second. In other words, you gave up the equivalent of three first rounders (plus) to acquire Brown, who is arguably the top PPR dynasty receiver.
The difference here, however, is that Eifert is the only one on your side who’s actually done anything. Abdullah and Dorsett have flashed a bit here and there, but as of yet we’ve seen little in the way of sustained success. As for the pick, it should decrease in value now that you’ll have Brown in your starting lineup week in and week out. So while you might have parted with multiple, relatively valuable pieces, you’ve also vanquished your roster of a good deal of mystery. Adding in the keeper component, I’m fine with the end result.
- I am in a 12-team, 5-player keeper non-PPR league. We start nine and bench eight. I currently have Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews and Donte Moncrief on my roster. The guys in my league tend to think in short-term results rather than long-term success. For that reason the following players are available: Dorial Green-Beckham, Devante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Kevin White, Breshad Perriman and Josh Gordon. Over the next couple weeks I’ll have roster room to pick up 1-2 of these guys. I’m curious how you would rank them at this point in the NFL season and given my league set up. – Rhys in MI
The longer the season goes with nothing but workout videos from suspended Browns receiver Josh Gordon, the more his value appreciates in my eyes. Given the injuries and struggles of the other rookies you listed, I’d value Gordon a bit higher than the lot. From there my second tier is composed of DeVante Parker and Kevin White, with Breshad Perriman a half step below. Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Agholor then round out the grouping. Simply put, even with his warts Gordon affords more immediate potential than the rest of the waiver wire all-stars, which becomes invaluable as you sort through your short list of keepers for next season.
- I’m in a league that heavily favors touchdowns (six points per touchdown, one per 25 yards). A big Dallas fan offered me Devonta Freeman and TY Hilton for Dez Bryant and Alfred Morris. I’ve managed to stay in the top tier of my league without Dez. I know receivers rule dynasty but it feels like everyone has them and not running backs. Is Freeman for real? Will he continue this success? Thoughts? – Chris in OH
Though I do think Devonta Freeman is showing quite a bit more than he did as a rookie, surprising the majority of us in the process, his resume still lacks in comparison to stud receiver Dez Bryant. And while Freeman hasn’t had any issue matriculating the ball into the end zone, Bryant has possessed that skill for years. Given that touchdowns are king in your league setting, I think you need to stick with the tried and true – Freeman may very well prove to be the real deal, but he just doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt like Dez does. I’d stand pat.
- What do I do with Jimmy Graham? I picked up Gary Barnidge and I’m wondering if he is making it safer to trade Graham or if he is just a flash in the pan. If I were to trade Graham what would be a reasonable return? My playoff chances are very slim after this week and I’m not sure if a round one pick would be good value for Graham, or if I can expect more back? – Matt in MA
[inlinead]The emergence of Gary Barnidge as a dynasty force has been arguably the most surprising breakout since Brandon Lloyd in 2010. However, much like with Freeman above, it’s hard to give him the benefit of the doubt when compared to a perennial asset like Jimmy Graham. Yes, Graham has interspersed a few clunkers here and there between good games, and no, he’s not in New Orleans anymore – but I just can’t discount the years of success he had, and have to believe he’ll figure things out in Seattle. I have no issue if you want to play the matchups between he and Barnidge for the rest of the season, but I wouldn’t feel stable enough with the Brown as your only tight end, especially given the likely depressed market for Graham at the moment.
- I’ve managed to build a theoretically dominant team but due to luck and injury find myself at 1-6. I have almost no chance of making the playoffs unless I go 6-0 rest of year (six teams make playoffs). Do I just wait for next year for a championship push or do I look to move on some of these assets and get a bit younger? – Jon in the UK
To me, there’s a rhyme and reason to self-identification as it relates to your dynasty squad. It’s easy to tell if your team is underachieving (or overachieving), at which point you can make the necessary adjustments. After all, sitting on the fence is arguably the worst place to be when it comes to building a future formulation. However, if you have legitimate reasons (injuries and poor performances by theoretical studs, as an example) for why your season hasn’t gone as expected, I have no problem just playing spoiler for the rest of the year and looking forward to the next season. Unless you believe some of these player downturns are a sign of things to come, I wouldn’t do anything drastic. Sometimes it’s just not your year.
- I’m looking to move Tom Brady for Ryan Tannehill. Tony Romo and Joe Flacco are my other quarterbacks. Right now I’m not a top team in my league as I’m currently in 7th spot (top six make playoffs). My thinking is by keeping Brady I would have a shot at the playoffs and doing some damage, but if I move Brady I’m giving up on the year and looking toward next year which I’m also okay with. Thoughts? – Mark in Nova Scotia
I’m fine with it. I just spoke of self-identification in the question above, and it appears you’ve done exactly this and reached the conclusion you just don’t have the horses to give it an honest go. And while Tom Brady will likely outscore Ryan Tannehill over the duration of the rest of this season, Tannehill’s youth and upward trajectory leaves him as the more valuable dynasty asset. You’ll also be getting Tony Romo back in just a few short weeks, returning your quarterback corps to a position of strength. If you don’t see yourself as a true contender, this is a solid deal to make.
- I own Rob Gronkowski and Tyler Eifert at tight end. I’m a contending team but I’m lacking depth at running back. I’m fielding multiple trade offers for Eifert, but I’m worried about trading him and losing the depth. Should I sell high or hold for depth, and if I’m selling what should I be looking to get? – Jared in NY
Unless you plan on starting both on a weekly basis, I have no problem selling Tyler Eifert right now. Though I do believe he’s an ascending talent, he’s already valued highly, checking in just outside the fourth round according to the October ADP data. If you’re looking to add a running back, this is in the same range as players such as Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray and Gio Bernard. But to play the contrarian, while these are quality ball carriers it’s easy to say they’re a few tiers removed from the elite players at the position. If that’s the going rate, I can understand waiting just a bit longer to get someone even better – in my opinion, Eifert’s price is going to keep going up. There’s no time crunch, so ultimately you need to do what’s in the best interest of your lineup, both for now and in the future.
- I’m making a championship run in the second year of our non-PPR dynasty league. Despite a solid roster, I ran into absurdly bad luck and am 4-3 but with 100+ more points for than the next best team. I keep reading about stocking up for a playoff run, and I have talent and picks to trade. I’ve been offered Matt Forte, the question is, is he a decent enough upgrade over Lamar Miller and Jeremy Hill for the second half of the season to merit giving away future picks and talent? I’m being asked for Derrick Henry (my one devy player) and a first round pick. I could also do consecutive years of first round picks, or Duke Johnson and a pick. Given my status, is it worth doing this at all? – Jake in TX
I wouldn’t make a decision just yet. Lamar Miller has been playing much better in recent weeks, finally getting the volume his talent dictates. He’s arguably the biggest reason why the Dolphins have finally started to look like the team they were expected to be in the preseason. And while Forte remains a high-end RB1, he loses just a bit of luster in a non-PPR setting, closing the gap between he and Miller that much more. I’m not ruling it out in the future, but I think you can give it some more time in order to make a completely informed opinion.
- I seem to have acquired an embarrassment of riches at receiver, including Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, TY Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, Donte Moncrief, John Brown, Kevin White, Stefon Diggs and Jamison Crowder. I start four receivers in a 12-team standard scoring league. I picked up Dion Lewis and am thinking I’d like to cash out on him too. I’m weaker at running back and tight end, so who should I look to trade and who should I target? – Chris in the UK
Assuming you want to hang onto your top four guys, you’re now in the position of selling one of Donte Moncrief, John Brown or Stefon Diggs to a receiver-poor team. Each is worth a first round pick in and of themselves, and adding Dion Lewis to the mix only strengthens your trade package that much more. If you’re looking to add a running back I think you can shoot for the realm of TJ Yeldon, Melvin Gordon, or even Eddie Lacy. If you’re looking for a tight end, I don’t think anyone apart from Gronk is out of the equation. Regardless, given the hype surrounding your trade-able assets, you should be able to snag a great player in return.
- We keep 13 players in my league, including IDPs, so practically speaking, that’s like 7-9 RBs/WRs. My current receivers worth mentioning after my top three are Josh Gordon, Kelvin Benjamin and DeVante Parker. These guys obviously hold future value, but are not helping me this year. My running backs are the two Cincy guys, Dion Lewis, Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, Matt Jones and Thomas Rawls. I’m considering trading a non-Cincy running back for Stefon Diggs or John Brown, who could help me this year and be a potential keeper. How would you rank Lewis, Randle, Jones, Rawls, Diggs, and Brown? – Aaron in NY
To me, Brown is easily the headliner of the group, already functioning as a high-end, start-able asset in his second year. He’s stolen a significant amount of thunder from the resurgent Larry Fitzgerald in recent weeks, rocketing up the team’s totem pole in a hurry. He might already be a WR2 in dynasty, and keeps climbing.
Diggs would be next on my list, as he’s shown quite a bit over the last few weeks. Though I prefer a larger sample size before making a steadfast determination, it’s impossible to deny how good he’s looked. Even though he’s new to the scene, it’s easy to see how he could function as the Vikings’ future WR1.
After that, I have Lewis, then a couple of page breaks, followed by Thomas Rawls and Matt Jones, and then finally Joseph Randle at the bottom. The former few have shown well in the early portions of this season, and have the looks of future contributors, though I remain lower on their respective ceilings than I do for Brown and Diggs. As for Randle, he’s hurt, potentially suspended and looks to have lost his place on the top of the depth chart – I don’t given him any real consideration as a worthwhile dynasty hold.
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