IDP Watch: Week Five
IDP leagues can be won with some preemptive in-season pickups or trading for players who are on the rise, but whom the masses have not picked up on. Each week, we’ll detail a handful of IDP players or trends essential for dynasty players to monitor.
Often, things like quarterback hurries, quarterback knockdowns or snap counts don’t appear in the box scores – these are key indicators of potential value changes that may be forthcoming as they show a particular player is getting after the quarterback and a string of sacks may be on the horizon or a linebacker may be coming off of the field more than originally expected.
This week, we’ll focus on some buy low and sell high candidates through five weeks of the season:
Jabaal Sheard, DE NE (Buy)
Very quietly, Sheard is in the midst of a career rebirth under Bill Belichick’s tutelage. Through four games, he’s averaging a sack and two tackles a game while playing anywhere from 60% to 80% of the team’s snaps. He’s outplayed Rob Ninkovich and may continue to eat into his snaps given the success he’s had to date. Given his age and his recent turnaround, he’s a buy with long-term upside to steal starter snaps.
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Sheldon Richardson, DE NYJ (Buy)
The 2013 defensive player of the year who also finished as a 2014 top 10 defensive end in most formats was activated from the suspension list this week. He isn’t likely to be handed snaps or a starting job with how Todd Bowles runs his team, but Richardson is an all-pro talent who is saying he’s “going to eat.” Sure, he’ll rotate with Muhammad Wilkerson and Leonard Williams, but it won’t be long before he earns his ample share of snaps. He’s undervalued because of his off the field activities this past summer and should soon return to prime defensive end value. Now is the time to buy while owners worry about his snap count with the two other former first round picks in the mix.
Vincent Rey, WLB CIN (Sell)
With Vontaze Burfict out, Rey has played virtually every 2015 defensive snap. This has led to top IDP production in 2015 as he’s averaging almost six tackles and four assists per game thus far. This is consistent with how he finished the 2014 season, so a great sign as a sustainable trend. He’s set to be a free agent in 2016, but the difficulty is that he’s benefiting significantly from mediocre talent in the Bengals’ current starting lineup. As an owner, I’d be looking to move him for a younger prospect or someone with guaranteed value beyond 2015.
Shaq Thompson, WLB CAR (Buy)
Thompson has played less than 50% of the team’s snaps thus far in 2015, even with Luke Kuechly out since week one with concussion issues. Considering Thompson’s versatility, you would have thought he would assume subpackage snaps over AJ Klein, but it didn’t happen. This may leave owners frustrated making it a perfect time to buy with long-term production in mind. The long-term potential with Thompson remains sky high and shouldn’t be dismissed.
Lawrence Timmons, ILB PIT (Sell)
Timmons is benefiting from the absence of Ryan Shazier averaging roughly eight tackles and three assists over the last two weeks. The talent is there, but once Shazier returns, there will be significant competition for tackles considering Sean Spence is emerging as a short-term starter with Shazier out. Once Shazier returns, this production rate is highly unlikely to continue which makes Timmons a perfect sell candidate.
Kevin Minter, ILB ARZ (Sell)
Minter has taken full advantage the opportunity he’s afforded in 2015. He’s on pace for roughly 100 total tackles (assists plus solo tackles), however, it’d be surprising to see him in the starting lineup as a three down linebacker in 2016. Sure, he has two games over the last three weeks where he’s tallied seven or more tackles, but there aren’t many other options. It’s a perfect time to take advantage of cashing in on his value.
Avery Williamson, ILB TEN (Buy)
Williamson was once viewed as a popular 2015 sleeper or breakout candidate. However, a reduced snap count in the first few weeks of the season coupled with tackle opportunity volume less than average, Williamson has struggled in the box score. However, over the last two weeks, he’s played about 90% of the team’s snaps and averaged six tackles and three assists. All of those numbers are improved from the earlier weeks in the season. His potential remains significant and it’s only a matter of time before he consistently performs. If you can leverage his first two weeks of the season as potential struggles, it’s worth pursuing a trade to acquire.
Demario Davis, ILB NYJ (Buy)
In a contract year, Davis only has one game of stellar production in week three against the Eagles where he posted six tackles, seven assists and a fumble recovery. Otherwise, his production has been mediocre. Looking at the Dolphins game in week four, for example, the tackle opportunities he saw was well below average. Davis is improving from the raw rookie he was and is in a contract year. His value and production should trend upward for the rest of the season.
Sean Spence, ILB PIT (Buy)
Once a popular rookie selection, Spence damaged a nerve in his knee leaving many to question whether he’d ever play an NFL snap again. After a fairly long road to recovery, Spence is starting in place of the injured Ryan Shazier and, over the last two weeks, is averaging six tackles per game. With both Lawrence Timmons and Spence situated to be free agents in 2016, Spence is a perfect buy for the cheap price of a waiver wire stash. He’s playing extremely well in relief of Shazier.
Dante Fowler, DE JAX (Buy)
Like many injured players, dynasty value hits rock bottom during the season. The next few weeks is an time to acquire Fowler as teams try to sure up certain aspects of their roster in hopes of making a push for the players or a championship run. Use it as an opportunity to test the waters and see if Fowler can be acquired at a discount.
Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveWyremski
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