The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*
- I recently completed a trade in a superflex IDP league and had two teams drop out of the league with no explanation after the trade processed. They have not responded to any personal emails and I’m wondering if it is because of the trade that went through after being very involved and emailing back and forth multiple times a week for several weeks in regards to other trades? The trade involved me giving up Jimmy Graham, Carlos Hyde, Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson, Blake Bortles, Sam Bradford and Aaron Donald. I received Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski and Steven Jackson. I feel like I just gutted my depth for two top-tier players but a single injury to either of them will drastically hurt my team. Is their gripe reasonable enough to want to drop out of the league and should the trade be vetoed? – BigGreezy in AZ
Taking away from the fact that unless obvious collusion is proven trades shouldn’t be vetoed, I don’t understand why this deal would upset your former league-mates. Yes, you got the best two assets in Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, but you also gave away five start-able assets in Jimmy Graham, Carlos Hyde, Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson and Sam Bradford, and perhaps a sixth in Blake Bortles given the superflex setting (I’m not well versed enough in IDP to comment on Aaron Donald). If anything, I believe you overpaid here, which is often something that needs to happen when you’re acquiring top fantasy assets – as such it’s my opinion the other owners need to get a grip and worry about their own rosters.
- We are heading into year two of a dynasty league, and since we are all located in a college football town, our league drunkenly added a taxi spot for one college player, to be picked during the four-round rookie/FA draft. Also, this year we are expanding rosters to 25. When the start-up auction was held we did a randomized order draft for one college guy each. Some guys now automatically have the likes of Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Amari Cooper and the top two quarterbacks. Others have Karlos Williams or Bryce Petty. Anyhow, I managed to end up w the 1.01, 1.07 and 1.08 in the forthcoming draft (and Jameis Winston is my devy player), but don’t have any picks in rounds two or three. My question to you is where should I value that devy pick? At 1.07, I’m in Jaelen Strong territory, and that’s ignoring that the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Carson Palmer are FAs. I’m inclined to pick Kevin White, best available, then the rights to Ezekiel Elliot or Nick Chubb rights. Is that crazy? – Jake in TX
I like your plan. Kevin White is routinely being selected in the top three to four picks of full rookie drafts, so the bump here to 1.01, given the depleted player pool, is more than palatable. Moving on to your additional first round picks, if you’re looking at players like Jaelen Strong, you’re already more than likely not anticipating any year-one production – so if you can snag one of the top devy guys, why not do it? Sure, it could be tough projecting rookie involvement for them as well, but given the likely NFL Draft capital teams are going to have to spend on them, it’s a reasonable bet. In other words, you likely won’t be taxed another year of waiting – I approve.
- My league has one RB/WR/TE FLEX, three WR/TE spots and does not require a tight end. Travis Kelce is a free agent, so ignoring team needs, where is a good spot to draft him in comparison to this year’s rookie crop? I hold the fifth pick in a fixed draft. – Mike in NJ
It’s all about playing the projection game here. Travis Kelce indeed appears to be a tight end on the rise, but he plays in an anemic passing offense that picked up Jeremy Maclin in free agency and added Chris Conley via the NFL Draft. As such, what type of statistical output appears reasonable?
Taking everything into account, I’d suggest a liberal estimate would be a line like 75-1000-8, which would equate to 148 non-PPR points and a finish as a low-end 2014 WR/TE2. If you buy into that type of ceiling I’d say he’s worth a late first round pick. If you’re more conservative then an early-to-mid second would seem about right.
- I’m in a touchdown-heavy scoring league and desperately need some running back help. Obviously guys like Marshawn Lynch and Eddie Lacy rule our scoring, but who are some sleepers I can target that would come a little cheaper and help this season? Also, I have Chris Ivory & Joique Bell currently. Are either worth keeping on my roster this season? – Chris in OH
To the latter, sure, why not? Both Chris Ivory and Joique Bell should receive a reasonable amount of touches, and more importantly likely function as goal line ‘backs. Given your scoring system, that’s the name of the game.
[inlinead]As for some sleepers, I think you should be targeting guys who similarly profile as red zone weapons, even if they don’t receive the majority of touches. Off the top of my head I think you should look into Alfred Morris, Isaiah Crowell, Doug Martin, David Cobb, LeGarrette Blount and Andre Williams. None are guaranteed studs (far from it in some instances), but you won’t have to break the bank and the upside should easily outweigh the cost.
- We’re starting a dynasty league this year and using auction draft. Rosters are 25 players. Budget is $250. I’m having trouble finding any resources that have auction values that reflect 25-man rosters. Any advice? – Tomo in WI
When in doubt, stay flexible! As such, there’s no better tool than “FADS” (Flexible Auction Draft Strategy) courtesy of our own FF Ghost. Check it out here!
- I have almost finished with setting my keepers and I have three receivers that I need to fit into my last two spots. My options are Charles Johnson, Steve Smith, and John Brown. Which two should I throw my keeper tag on and which do I cut free? – Ray in NJ
One way or the other I’d definitely hang onto John Brown, who appears to now be the receiver to own in the desert. After that, it depends on what you’re looking for – if you want immediate viability I’d opt for Steve Smith, who once again appears to be a lock to lead Baltimore in receiving. If you’re searching instead for someone with more “dynasty value,” I’d go with Charles Johnson. Even though he should (rightfully so, in my opinion) take a backseat to new acquisition Mike Wallace, he’s clearly considered the better dynasty asset, which should at least somewhat carry over to a keeper setting.
- I was offered Julio Jones for picks 1.06 and 1.07 overall. Should I pull the deal or take Parker and Abdullah? – Craig in WA
Considering I’d trade picks 1.01 and 1.06 (and possibly some sweeteners on top) to acquire Julio Jones, I’d absolutely do this. You’re getting elite, proven production for guys who may or may not pan out. Don’t overthink this one.
- I just made a trade for Jordy Nelson in my 10-team dynasty league. The trade was a 2017 first round pick, Carlos Hyde, and Allen Robinson for Nelson and Chris Ivory. I made the trade since I’m really in win-now mode. I also own Randall Cobb, and I’m wondering how you feel about owning two receivers in the same highly productive offense? If it can be a problem, I’m can work a trade centered around Nelson for Travis Kelce+. Would you rather hold Jordy and go for it all, or should I flip him for Kelce+ and try to keep my title window open longer? – Ryan in AZ
I don’t believe there’s any inherent issue as it relates to owning two receivers on the same team, especially when it comes to a duo on one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league. I suppose there’s something to be said for diversifying, thereby insulating yourself against the possibility of a “down game” torpedoing your weekly chances, but we’re talking about two of the best receivers in the league. Considering your status as a contender, I think you should stand pat with your pair of Packers.
- I just started my very first dynasty league. It’s 10 teams with 2QB/2TE and 0.5 PPR, and we start 13 players and have 15 on our bench. I’ve already received a trade offer for my Julio Jones and my second round pick next year for Eddie Lacy and Kenny Stills, though I’m thinking about try to get Martavis Bryant instead of Stills. I still want to want to win this year, but I’ve got some decent players for this year and for the future. I’ve been hearing you should be going for the win or trying to rebuild your team, not both, and my friend thinks if I give up Julio I’m saying I don’t intend to contend this year. To me this feels more like a trade than a rebuild move. What are your thoughts? – Nicolas in CA
As mentioned in the question above, I’m a big fan of Jones and actually view him as my number-one overall dynasty asset. With that said, fellow Crimson Tide product Eddie Lacy isn’t terribly far behind, and Kenny Stills and Martavis Bryant are also well thought of in dynasty circles. So while you’d be giving up the best asset in the deal, you’d also likely be receiving two startable quantities in return.
I wouldn’t personally do the deal, but it’s a fair offer and to me doesn’t signal any sort of intent other than you’re doing what you think is best for your roster. Continuing, a true “rebuild” would more likely center around Jones instead of Lacy, at least given the prevalent “receivers are long-term assets” mentality. So again, I’m in agreement with your take on the proposed trade.
Finally, to the point about fence sitting, it’s true you don’t want to be in the middle of your league. But remember, it’s your first upcoming season and we simply don’t know how the upcoming year is going to shape out. At this point in the summer, I wouldn’t worry about it unless you drafted a team comprised either of all veterans, or all 23-and-under guys.
- In our rookie/FA draft both CJ Anderson and Charles Johnson are available. Where would you rank them within this year’s current rookie class? – Steve in ME
I’m a big fan of CJ Anderson and currently have him ranked as my dynasty RB9. As such I wouldn’t hesitate to take him around, or just after the “consensus” top five guys. Conversely, I don’t honestly understand the hype surround Johnson, and wouldn’t use anything more than a mid-second on the guy. I remain convinced Mike Wallace is the guy to own on that offense, and truthfully don’t think Johnson did anything special last season to warrant his recent bump in value. I’d rather let someone else overpay.
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