Instant Analysis: Antonio Gates Suspended
Despite being 35 years of age, San Diego tight end Antonio Gates has been outrunning Father Time longer than most assumed he would. However, in light of the recent four-game PED-related suspension handed down by the NFL, is it now fair to wonder if he had a little help in doing so? Perhaps more importantly, what ramifications will his absence have on the entirety of the Chargers offense?
Let’s take a look at the principal parties involved…
Antonio Gates, TE SD
Obviously this hurts contending teams counting on the future Hall of Famer for TE1 viability. Last year, Gates finished as the PPR TE3, largely on the back of his 12 receiving scores. He also finished second on the team in both receptions in receiving yards, proving once again age was just a number.
But to the point I made in the initial paragraph, how much of that was due to an illegal advantage?
Feel free to lambaste me for this take, but I don’t think it had anything to due with performance enhancing drugs. In 2013, Gates actually had more receptions and receiving yards, but simply failed to score the ball at the same rate (only four touchdowns). 2012 was definitively a down year (538 yards in 15 games), but 2011 (778 yards in 13 games) and 2010 (782 yards in 10 games) were spectacular. So clearly, for the sake of believability we have to assume Gates began taking PEDs after the 2012 season and somehow didn’t get caught until two full seasons later.
Nope, I’m not buying it.
Much like Tony Gonzalez before him, there exists the possibility – no, probability – that Gates is just that good. Remember, he isn’t going to be elected into the Hall of Okay, he’s going to the freaking Hall of Fame, largely because much like Gonzo and Mike Ditka before him, he helped revolutionize the position. If I owned Gates I’d be holding fast, expecting him to put up TE1 numbers once he comes back. And if your league-mates think his production was solely a by-product of an illegality, now’s the time to buy.
Philip Rivers, QB SD
Since taking over as “the guy” in 2006, Rivers has tossed 251 touchdown passes – 72 of these scores have gone to Gates, equating to 28.7%. Considering the duration of time we’re talking about, that’s absolutely huge. In fact, excluding 2013 and his rookie season, Gates has never failed to haul in at least seven scores in any given season – that’s a massive safety blanket for any quarterback.
While I don’t expect Rivers to fall flat on his face in 2015’s opening quartet of games, it’s fair to wonder if his red-zone effectiveness will suffer. I certainly wouldn’t be looking to sell here (after all, he’s still only 33 years old), but if I’m counting on the guy as my starter for nearly a third of the fantasy season it’s something to think about. Ultimately though, I think you need to stay the course – Rivers remains one of the best signal callers in the league, and should still be valued as such.
Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson and Malcom Floyd, WR SD
[inlinead]This can only be a good thing for the trio above, right? Last year Allen, Floyd and the now-departed Eddie Royal combined for 304 targets, showing that the offense clearly revolved around its receivers and Gates. As such, I would expect slight bumps for all three, particularly Johnson since he seems most likely to spend his time in the slot, corralling the shorter passes. The touchdown vacuum should also favor Allen, who despite his down year as a sophomore still managed to catch eight touchdowns on just 105 targets as a rookie. It might be challenging to predict who will receive the weekly bump, but as the most talented of the three I can see Allen procuring the additional work.
Ladarius Green, TE SD
Ah, now we’ve reached the crux of the matter. As the man slated to directly replace Gates for the early-season stretch, as well as a card-carrying member of the “Christine Michael Super Hype All-Stars,” much of the dynasty focus has shifted to Green and his theoretical potential. Let’s explore what this means for the soon-to-be fourth year player.
To date, Green truthfully hasn’t done much of anything between the white lines of the NFL playing field. In three years he’s only managed to achieve a modest line of 40/658/3, never seeing more than 30 targets in a single season. I understand he was stuck behind one of the all-time greats, but if he was as good as advertised, why wouldn’t the coaches scheme specifically for him?
To that last point, the list of Chargers targeted more heavily than Green last year is six-deep, including the previously mentioned Gates, Allen, Floyd and Royal. Also above Green in the pecking order were a pair of running backs in Branden Oliver and “Dammit” Donald Brown, neither of whom could possibly be confused with any sort of transcendently talented footballer. So apart from Gates, and to a lesser extent Allen, why was Green so blocked off from making any sort of NFL (and fantasy) contribution?
Some of it comes from where he plays – tight end is arguably the most nuanced position in the NFL, and it takes rarities like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham to make any sort of early-career contribution. But I also don’t think we should be glossing over the fact that Green was a fourth round pick by now-deposed General Manager AJ Smith, a man affectionately labeled as “The Lord of No Rings” by local media. In other words, though Green has physical gifts on his side, it wasn’t enough for the 31 other teams to pass over him (at least) three times apiece, ultimately ending in a selection by a comically bad GM.
Speaking to those physical gifts, I want to draw your attention to the figure below, which highlights a direct comparison of the measureables of two different NFL tight ends, while also showing their stat-lines through three years:
So who’s behind our two mystery doors?
I’ve already provided the answer to Contestant A earlier, who is none other than Mr. Green. But how about Contestant B, a player who is not only more of a physical presence than Green but has also out-performed on the gridiron? Yup, that’s none other than budding superstar Rob Housler.
If you’re wondering what I’m driving at, it’s simple. Firstly, it’s not as if Green’s physical gifts are some sort of new NFL phenomenon – the tight end landscape is littered with guys who “just need to realize their upside,” and Housler is a perfect example. Yet despite his relative successes compared to Green, he’s viewed as a fantasy pariah instead of a budding superstar who “just needs a shot.”
Secondly, Green’s lack of production to date is alarmingly low. I’ve touched on the fact that he’s behind Gates, but even a guy like Housler, who was so deep in Bruce Arians’ doghouse that he effectively resembled a post-Ramsey Theon Greyjoy, out-performed him with ease. For a fourth round pick with little more than a profile as an “athletic mismatch” to his name, that’s not exactly good.
Bringing this full circle, I think it’s imperative to see what owners of Green have to say on the matter. Recently I took to Twitter and asked said dynasty aficionados what draft picks they would have accepted in compensation for Green, both before and after the Gates suspension. Here are the tabulated results:
While this is only a small sample size, it’s easy to glean a common trend – seven of the nine owners placed a higher value on Green after the Gates suspension than they did before. Again, it’s not as if Green himself did anything during this timeframe to cause us to value him more highly, but rather it’s owners sensing the volatility of the tight end landscape, and understanding the potential valuation shift. It’s also notable that outside of one owner, the consensus remained that Green still wasn’t worth more than an early second round pick.
So what should dynasty owners be looking to do with Green right about now? For my money, I’d be actively seeking the Housler owner and trying to flip Green for Housler and a future second round pick. Not only would this provide additional draft capital next year, but it would also result in procuring a player who has a full season of opportunity as a starter, and one who offers the same “upside” as Green.
But ultimately, I won’t fault those owners who choose to stand pat. Likely they’ve been riding out the storm for a few years now, and truly believe in the eventual Green breakout. Perhaps more importantly, they know he’s a free agent at the conclusion of the season, so if he puts a good show on tape it’s entirely possible he’ll find himself in a more ideal situation next season. At the end of the day though, I expect more of the same – Gates coming back in week five and reclaiming his starting job, with Green owners left holding the bag full of another off-season’s worth of “what if?” eventualities.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27
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