Late Round Gems
Did you know diamonds aren’t expensive because they are rare? In fact, high prices are maintained due to gem companies controlling the larger-than-you’d-imagine supply in order to starve the market. De Beers invented this method of legal price fixing some 125 years ago, and despite the number of companies currently in the fray, the quantity made available to the open market has always been outpaced by the demand for the so-called precious gem.
Movie pitch: Our hero Dave (played by Vin Diesel), breaks into ACME Big Diamond Company, LLC, LTD and steals all the diamonds they have hoarded in their secret vault. His original intent to sell them and buy his hometown Cleveland Browns changes when he meets Cathy (played by Bruce Dern in drag). Bruce’s character convinces Dave to release all the diamonds to the public, bringing prices down so much that the stones are sold in those little 25 cent plastic bubble dispensing machines at Pizza Hut.
At this point, even I have no idea where I’m going with this. One minute I was writing an intro for a late round dynasty gems article, but apparently blacked out before waking up with a nosebleed about an hour later.
Once I recovered from whatever that was, I hit the inner nets to find a few youngsters who went late but are still are worth looking in to. I limited my search to skill position players selected in the sixth and seventh rounds of the NFL draft. Despite the slim pickings, I was able to come away with three prospects to discuss.
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Darren Waller WR, BAL (Round 6, Pick #28)
I am not Mel Kiper Jr., Mike Mayock, or even DLF’s own, The FFGhost. I don’t watch hundreds of hours of college film and couldn’t tell Aaron Ripkowski from Kelly Kapowski. It is with this in mind that I have to assume people know something I don’t about Waller. When I sat down and watched an hour of his film for this article, I couldn’t even begin to guess how he lasted until pick #204.
Due to an overall lack of polish and very uneven effort, I wouldn’t suggest Waller should have been a top-100 pick. But when you look at some of the receivers taken as early as the fourth round (*cough* Vince Mayle *cough*), I’m having a hard time seeing how he wasn’t in that mix.
There are warts to Waller’s game. His effort is uneven both in blocking and route running. I witnessed more than one instance of him slowing down on a fly route after the ball was in the air, causing an incompletion. He is a willing blocker, but sometimes just plain whiffs and doesn’t seem interested in getting back in the play. The big receiver can also be a bit slow in and out of breaks. Part of this comes down to his hulking frame and stiffer-than-I’d-like hips, but I believe it is also effort based at times.
I do have to wonder how much of his effort issues come down to the offense Georgia Tech runs (the triple option). It isn’t hard to imagine a 21-year-old wide receiver becoming disinterested as a result of getting to run so few routes in a very limited tree. Whether that is a valid reason or a poor excuse is up for interpretation.
While the bads are bad, the goods are good. Even if he makes some drops, Waller has good catching technique, nearly always snagging passes away from his body. He has solid body control and the ability to sky over defenders, making the mammoth receiver nearly impossible to cover in one-on-one jump ball situations. His straight line speed is such that a linebacker or safety can’t handle Waller, which would make him a big-time mismatch if he becomes a move tight end, as some have suggested he should.
Basically, Waller shares a lot of traits (good and bad) with Dorial Green-Beckham, who is going in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts.
Waller’s current ADP has him as a mid/late fourth round pick. Due to his draft pedigree, I’m not sure he’ll get enough of a chance to really shine. I’m also not sure he ever ends up polished enough or has the willingness to play hard every time out. But if we can get a handful of if’s to pan out, Waller has a very nice ceiling and is worth every penny of his asking price (and probably more).
Josh Robinson RB, IND (Round 6, Pick #29)
This kid’s Twitter handle, @Bowling34Ball, says it all. There isn’t much wiggle or creativity to Robinson’s game, but with his battering ram-ness, there doesn’t need to be. Or, rather, there hasn’t needed to be. There is some concern, which I share, Robinson will struggle to consistently run over NFL-sized defenders. Despite his play style, the Mississippi State prospect is only 5’8” and 217 pounds, which is hardly a prototypical power back frame.
As I alluded to above, Robinson lacks burst and anything more than an initial cut. His vision is poor, an issue exacerbated by his overall lack of NFL caliber athleticism. Robinson does have decent feet for a squatty guy, but is very susceptible to ankle tackles (the feet giveth, and the feet taketh away).
As long as the Colts are willing to employ Robinson as a one-cut runner, and as long as their suspect offensive line can open up holes for him, and as long as Andrew Luck is in town, keeping defenses on their heels, and as long as Indy doesn’t draft a more talented back as Frank Gore’s successor, Robinson could be a productive player. But that’s a lot of “and as long as’s.” I think the more realistic scenario is he is a solid, reliable, no frills, gets what’s blocked backup to an aging stud on a prolific offense, and that counts for something. His mid-third ADP feels about right.
Tre McBride WR, TEN (Round 7, Pick #28)
Amazing hands, truly elite body control, good speed, highly intelligent, very productive and physically dominant are things you don’t expect to hear about a receiver taken one pick ahead of whatever a Geoff Swaim is. Yet all of those superlatives are very fairly assigned to Mr. McBride, who was the 245th overall pick. So what gives?
McBride played in the CAA, which is like the CIA except we know way less about the people in it. The lower level of competition small schools face always creates some trickiness when evaluating film. There is also concern over his ability to separate/play as fast as he times. After some digging on YouTube, which led me to the excellent RSP Film Room with Matt Waldman and Sigmund Bloom, I can see where the worry is coming from. But because he is so brilliant at creating separation at the point of the catch, I’m not bothered.
From a fantasy perspective, my apprehension has nothing to do with McBride’s talent. Instead, I’m worried about his draft pedigree. Touted as a third round pick by some, his slip to the late seventh is a huge roadblock. NFL teams are notorious for giving strong favor to players drafted in earlier rounds. This makes sense on three levels:
- Generally speaking, the most talent players are drafted highest.
- The more you invest in a player in terms of draft and financial capital, the more you need them to be productive.
- NFL coaches and GMs have egos. Benching Justin Hunter for Trey McBride requires admitting you blew a very valuable 2013 draft pick (34th overall) on a mutt of a player.
So what we are left with is a potential stud who may never get a completely legitimate shot to shine. That said, I’d be completely comfortable gambling on McBride in the top-half of the third round, which is at least half a round above his current ADP.
I wish I had written this article in March, as I’d be significantly more educated on all three of these players. With my rookie drafts almost all concluded, I won’t have as much of a chance to capitalize on what I learned as I’d like. Instead I’ll have to shake hands and kiss babies to see if I can’t grind out some trades. I guess it beats working in the diamond mines (or being in love with Bruce Dern in drag).
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