Instant Analysis: Tom Brady Suspended Four Games
Although many have suspected a suspension was coming for Tom Brady after the Ted Wells report was released last week, most considered a punishment of one to two games to be on the way. Count me as one of the surprised when a four game ban for the golden armed quarterback was handed down earlier this evening. After all, the report did say in part, “It is more probable than not that Tom Brady (the quarterback for the Patriots) was at least generally aware of the … release of air from Patriots game balls.”
“More probable than not” is hardly a claim of guilt but you’re likely not here to read anybody’s thoughts on how appropriate the length of the suspension is and you’ve probably heard enough jokes about deflated balls so let’s cover something worthwhile – the dynasty ramifications of today’s suspension.
Tom Brady, QB NE
Many dynasty owners may think getting through a four game suspension to their top quarterback at the beginning of a season shouldn’t be a big deal. Losing a top-10 fantasy quarterback for the first five weeks (including the Patriots’ bye), which equals 38% of the fantasy season’s 13 game schedule, is a pretty big deal however – especially in super-flex or 2QB leagues.
If you happen to be a Brady owner in such league, the best advice I can give you is to be patient. Because things were so murky in the Wells report, it’s very unlikely he’ll take this punishment without a fight so there’s still a very real possibility that the suspension could be lessened by a game or two. Until that all happens, dynasty owners without a quality replacement should take time to weigh their options and look for reasonable priced replacements for the first month of the season rather than overreacting and taking the first lopsided offer that comes their way.
All things considered, the thing that may be the most relevant to Brady’s dynasty value is the motivation this suspension has undoubtedly given him. Fueled by competitiveness and the drive to prove naysayers wrong for his entire career, it’d be incredibly surprising if he didn’t come back with a vengeance starting week six against the Colts.
Particularly in super-flex and 2QB leagues, contending teams with a need under center that can get him at even a slight discount should consider adding Brady. With his weapons and certain hell-bent attitude to stick it to everybody that doubts him, it could be an unbelievable 10 game ride to close out the 2015 fantasy schedule.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB NE
Picked late in the second round of last year’s draft, many figured Garoppolo wouldn’t get meaningful snaps for at least a few years but at least right now, it looks like he’ll get a four-game audition to start the Patriots’ title defense in 2015.
[inlinead]A pre-season darling a year ago, Garoppolo completed 46-of-79 passes (58.2%) for 618 yards and five touchdowns in four pre-season games but due to Brady’s presence on the depth chart in front of him, he was never looked at as anything more than a long-term stash. Despite following that up by completing 19-of-27 passes (70.4%) for 182 yards and a score in limited regular season snaps, the prevailing opinion was that he remained a prospect with little immediate value.
Fast forward a couple months and the glowing reports coming out of Foxboro throughout the off-season as well as the news he’ll be under center to start the season have put Garoppolo’s trade value higher than ever.
Overall, deciding what to do with Garoppolo is extremely dependent on league settings and team makeup. Despite some suggesting Brady’s situation could point to a changing of the guard at quarterback if Garoppolo plays well, owners should keep in mind that we’re still at least a couple years away from Brady being out of his way. With that in mind, it’d be irresponsible for any Garoppolo owner –especially those rebuilding – not to at least test the trade market in the coming weeks. The first call or email should go out to the Brady owner and probably should have already been made.
LeGarrette Blount, RB NE
If there’s a player (or group of players) who could perhaps benefit most from this suspension, it’s whoever is running the ball in New England. Although it’s impossible to tell which runner Bill Belichick will prefer on a week to week basis, it’s relatively safe to assume that the loss of Brady will take the air out of the ball (I couldn’t help myself) to some extent.
At this point the most logical benefactor of what is sure to be an increased workload for the running game over the first month of the season is Blount. With 704 career carries and averaging 4.6 yards per carry with 25 career touchdowns, he’s easily the most experienced tailback on the Patriots’ roster and seems to have the trust of Belichick and the New England coaching staff.
While Belichick’s history would suggest that Brandon Bolden, James White, Jonas Gray or Travaris Cadet are equally as likely be the one benefiting from what should be a commitment to the ground game early in the season, the safe money at this point is Blount. Any owner looking for some relatively cheap early season production with upside (perhaps as a replacement for LeVeon Bell) could do worse than inquiring about Blount.
Julian Edelman, WR NE
Although the loss of Brady will be felt throughout the New England pass catching corps due to what is sure to be more conservative play calling, Edelman may not feel the effects as much as others. Primarily running short, quick routes close to the line of scrimmage, it’s reasonable to expect Edelman to play the role of security blanket for Garoppolo early in the season.
Coming out of college, scouts and coaches raved about Garoppolo’s quick release and speedy decision making skills. Most likely, the New England coaching staff will attempt to get the young signal caller in a rhythm early in games with quick timing throws which plays right into the wheelhouse of Edelman.
Although there are never any guarantees with a young passer under center and Edelman’s upside is certainly limited until Brady returns, it’s reasonable to expect that his dynasty value in both the short and long-term shouldn’t be affected very much by the suspension.
Brandon Lafell, WR NE
Unlike Edelman, Lafell did a majority of his damage on the outside last year and depended often on Brady’s strong arm which isn’t a strength of Garopollo’s. Lafell runs good routes but doesn’t get a lot of separation which means his quarterback needs a bit of a gunslinger’s mentality to fit the ball into small windows. Having a young quarterback afraid to make mistakes will likely limit Lafell’s upside in the early part of the season. But if he does have a slow start, it could present a buying opportunity once Brady returns.
Rob Gronkowski, TE NE
While the loss of Brady is sure to affect most receivers at least a little bit, it’s difficult to believe it will do anything to Gronk’s dynasty value.
A mismatch no matter who’s lined up across from him, Gronkowski is open so often that even the worst NFL quarterbacks should be able to get him the ball. Considering his massive size, incredible hands and outstanding catch radius, it’d be surprising if the Patriots didn’t force feed him the ball while Brady is away from the team.
Because the offense may be dulled down a bit, Gronk may have less opportunities to find the end zone but dynasty owners shouldn’t worry about it. He’ll still get a majority of red zone targets and should have plenty more shots once Brady returns. If for some unknown reason his owner is concerned about the effect of Brady’s suspension on Gronkowski, be happy to pay full price for the best tight end in football – regardless of who’s throwing him the ball.
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