Triple Take: Duke Johnson

Rob Willette Posted On April 30, 2015

johnson
Opinions are good. Multiple opinions are better. It helps DLF avoid the “group think” mentality while providing you the insight you need to dominate your leagues. In this installment of “Triple Take,” our Dynasty Scouts writers evaluate another up and coming prospect.

Randy “Duke” Johnson
Running Back, University of Miami (FL)
5’9” 207 pounds
5 star recruit

2012: 139 carries for 947 yards, 6.8 yards per carry, ten touchdowns, 27 receptions for 221 yards, one receiving touchdown
2013: 145 carries for 920 yards, 6.3 yards per carry, six touchdowns, four receptions for 77 yards
2014: 242 carries for 1652 yards, 6.8 yards per carry, ten touchdowns, 38 receptions for 421 yards, three receiving touchdowns

Athletic Profile & Vision

(Caraccio) Throughout history, the NFL has proven that successful runners can come in all sizes. At 5’9” and weighing 207 pounds, Duke Johnson is not a large running back by any measure. As an athlete, Johnson does not posses a bevy of elite traits either; in fact Johnson might be the walking embodiment of the phrase “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.” Johnson has adequate, not exceptional long speed (not terribly important for the position), and functional lateral agility. Johnson’s most outstanding (borderline special) athletic traits are his balance, initial burst and acceleration. These traits, which transfer well to the NFL, allow Johnson to extend plays and gain yardage when the situation dictates otherwise. It is the primary reason Johnson appears to “play faster on film”. Whether between the tackles or on runs to the outside, Johnson’s ability to reach maximum speed before hitting the line of scrimmage is incredible. In fact Johnson’s short area burst is one of the biggest reasons he has such scheme versatility as a runner. Whether it is a gap (power) or zone running play, Johnson’s ability to accelerate to top speed quickly is his most lethal asset. On more than a few occasions on film, defenders were caught flatfooted as Johnson scampered by them. In addition to short area burst, Johnson’s excellent balance mitigates most arm and indirect tackles. One area in particular where these traits intersect is at the moment of impact with a defender.

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Johnson might be the most elusive player at the moment of impact in this class. Let me explain this term. I define the moment of impact as the precise time in a play in which a pursuing defender is within a yard of the ball carrier in either a head-up or shaded (approaching on either the inside or outside shoulder of the ball carrier) relationship on the field. In most of these situations a ball carrier’s power is critiqued, since the primary means by which a ball carrier attempts to defeat a tackle in theses instances is with physical force; very few runners have the kinesthetic acumen to elude the tackle. Johnson is one of those special backs that possess the acumen necessary to navigate the moment of impact without exceptional physical force. On film, Johnson often falls forward with great frequency because of natural leverage and a variety of elusive efforts (last second cuts or spins). Johnson’s signature move is a last second spin in these moments and he executes them with surgical precision. The importance of this trait cannot be overstated, especially for a back like Johnson that struggles to push a pile. Please do not misunderstand my assertion, Johnson’s savvy at the moment of impact does not mean he will excel in obvious short yardage situations at the next level. Rather Johnson’s tactics at the moment of impact preserve his body (less direct hits), potentially extend plays (poor tackle?) and create extra yardage. This skill at the moment of impact also indicates Johnson’s exceptional strength in another crucial area; vision.

In order for a back like Johnson to succeed at the moment of impact he must have good vision. If not he would rarely fall forward and his lack of power would relegate him forever to a committee role. Duke Johnson has very good vision and outside of the situations discussed earlier, Johnson’s decisive nature as a runner is evident throughout his film. Johnson attacks the line of scrimmage like a missile. Johnson’s ability to quickly diagnose the line of scrimmage allows him to maximize his potential on every play. On runs between the tackles, Johnson can get skinny when needed without sacrificing speed. Specifically when navigating tight quarters, Johnson relies on jump cuts to elude defenders. While this works fine in college, leaving the ground does slow you down even if just for an instant. However when body’s pile up on the ground a running back has little recourse but to hurdle the players and Johnson performs this task exceptionally well (again a testament to his vision). On outside running plays, Johnson is equally efficient and deliberate carrying the football. In addition, Johnson showcased a nice stiff arm on several occasions, which he used to extend his runs. One area where Johnson really needs to improve at the next level is developing more patience as a runner. While Johnson does a good job of setting up his blockers, there were more than a few instances on zone running plays (could be inside or stretch) where Johnson could have pressed the hole a bit longer, but instead made a cut up field. I am confident Johnson can improve in this area at the next level.

(Whalen) Johnson measured in at the combine at 5’9″ 207 pounds, which was heavier than I expected. He started his college career at Miami weighing in the 180 pound range. The added weight has slowed down Johnson from running in the 4.4 range to a 4.54 at the combine. He was quicker and more agile before the added weight as well. Many have him regarded as a very good athlete and I think he’s overrated in that regard. Johnson has solid change of direction skills and uses a hesitation move mostly to make defenders miss. Outside of a jump cut, I don’t see anything else in the agility department. Due to his slight build, Johnson doesn’t possess very much power. He has solid effort and has okay power for his size, but it’s only going to get worse in the NFL as they are bigger and stronger. Johnson displays good patience to wait for his hole and then decisive when a hole opens up. He tends to cut back too early or bounce runs outside too often though. The way Johnson wins in college is due to his high effort, vision, and change of direction ability. A few other concerns about Johnson are being injury prone and ball security. Johnson takes a lot of big hits and tends to get dinged up often, I see this as only getting worse at the NFL level. I saw him fumbling the football quite a few times as well.

(Leath) I find the best description of Johnson’s physical tools to be that he possesses “functional athleticism”, which is my non-poetic way of saying that he’s got enough juice in his legs to compete at a high level yet leaves you wanting a little more in that department. He certainly competes on every down and maximizes the tools at his disposal; you’re not going to see him give up on a play or go down without a battle. He looked more explosive early in his career, when he was not carrying the extra weight. Much like the original Randy Johnson, he lost a few miles per hour off his fastball as the years wore on. Where he does excel is with his initial burst. He can scoot through the hole and has enough long speed to get on top of a defense in a hurry. While small, Johnson’s toughness and desire are evident in traffic. He will burrow ahead for the tough yards, even if he is not moving the pile with consistency. He is in a tough spot because added weight has sapped some of his natural athleticism, while dropping said weight would make him very undersized. Ultimately, I feel he’d be better getting down to that to 200 range and focusing on a niche role in the NFL.

Passing Game Skills

(Caraccio) Johnson has the opportunity to become a nice receiving threat at the next level. Soft hands and a good catch radius, Johnson showed good instincts when the ball was in the air. On several plays Johnson showed an ability to adjust to poorly thrown passes. In addition, Johnson demonstrated the capacity to run routes and defeat defensive converges. Specifically, on an option route out of the backfield, Johnson showcased the ability to adjust both his pace and trajectory to facilitate an easier throw for his quarterback. On another play Johnson showed good instincts as a route runner, when he broke off his route to catch a poorly thrown pass. At the next level Johnson will be able to add dimension to any teams passing game. As a blocker, Johnson is more than willing. He can diagnose the line of scrimmage well and he does a nice job of positioning his body between the rusher and the quarterback. He also showed the capacity to redirect pass rushers; working the circle. Despite his size, Johnson could become a very competent blocker and remain on the field in passing situations.

(Whalen) This is the area Johnson needs to be very good at in order to be good at fantasy football because of his size. However, owners are going to be disappointed with his passing game skills. He isn’t strong enough to hold up in pass protection and gets pushed around often. Johnson has average hands as well. He drops some easy passes and doesn’t have great range to adjust to passes.

(Leath) Passing game success is absolutely pivotal to Johnson’s NFL fortunes. He’s not going to be a two-down thumper, and he will need versatility to separate himself from the surfeit of complimentary backs at the next level. Fortunately, he has enough skill in this area to be a valuable asset, showcasing natural ball skills and an understanding of how to play in the screen game. He’s a willing blocker, which is a large part of the battle when it comes to pass protection. He just needs some seasoning at the NFL level; experience will compensate for his lack of girth.

Dynasty Projection

(Caraccio) Scheme versatility is the phrase that most aptly describes Johnson as a running back. A potential three down back, Johnson could be an asset in either a gap or zone running scheme. Personally, I would rather see Johnson used as the better part of a committee to help assuage at least some of the physical rigors of the position. That said, Johnson’s upside as a receiver provides the necessary dimension teams are looking for in runner. Johnson is my fifth ranked fantasy running back in this class (behind Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, and Ameer Abdullah). Why, because I feel Johnson is almost a finished product. Please do not misunderstand me, Johnson is an excellent running back, but there are not that many areas in his game where I see room for tremendous growth. As a fantasy commodity his potential as a receiver could make him a great asset in PPR leagues. Outside of PPR formats his value might be limited depending on the team that drafts him. I firmly have Johnson slotted as a mid to late first round pick in rookie drafts.

(Whalen) Johnson is a smaller sized running back, doesn’t possess great speed or agility, average hands, below average power and he gets dinged often. That combination makes me wonder how he can “win” at the NFL level to be enough of a fantasy asset to invest capital into him. I won’t own him on any of my teams. I can see Johnson being on the lesser part of a committee on an NFL team and becoming a spot starter in fantasy football. In a way, he reminds me of Ka’Deem Carey (Carey is more physical and Johnson is more athletic) because both aren’t big enough to be a fantasy starter, nor do they have the game to have a big role otherwise.

(Leath) I’m not going to be pushing people out of the way to land Johnson. I do not see consistent success, and question how many touches NFL coaches will be earmarking for him at the next level. He’s got enough appeal for me to spend a second round rookie pick on him, as that is where you start to eyeball flawed players that can carve out a significant role at the NFL level.

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