Dynasty Capsule: Jacksonville Jaguars
As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.
True story – the game where I decided to like football and was going to actually watch it instead of just making fun of my Dad for watching it, was a Monday night game back in 2003, Byron Leftwich led the Jaguars to a win over the Buccaneers. Leftwich instantly became my favorite player. I was ten years old and they still have yet to win that elusive title. So, what are we looking at on the Jaguars from a dynasty perspective? I’ll dive in.
Quarterbacks
Blake Bortles
Bortles didn’t exactly have a banner year under center for Jacksonville in his rookie campaign. He took over for Chad Henne at halftime of the week three game against the Indianapolis Colts and started 13 games total, throwing 11 touchdowns and 17 interceptions with 2,908 passing yards. Bortles didn’t get much help from his offensive line as the Jaguars finished with a -32.4 PFF grade, good for 18th best in the NFL and he was also sacked 54 times. I think that offensive line is one of the positions they will be addressing in free agency and the draft to protect their franchise quarterback. While his stats were mediocre to porous, Bortles did show some promise on the field and the situation around him is only likely to get better. Many expect Justin Blackmon to return from suspension, along with the development and health of the trio of 2014 rookie wide receivers in Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns, Bortles looks to have his fair share of weapons for the 2015 season and the future. If he is unable to show growth and development in this offense, he likely never will.
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Chad Henne
From both a Jaguars and Dynasty perspective, Chad Henne is only Bortles insurance. In 1 QB leagues, your roster can’t afford to spend a roster spot on him, but in Superflex/2 Quarterback leagues, if I am the owner of Blake Bortles, I am spending a roster spot on Henne in case he gets hurt or just flames out and gets benched. So, in short, Chad Henne really has no dynasty value unless you have Blake Bortles.
Stephen Morris
I doubt Morris makes the 2015 roster, as they will likely bring in another veteran or sign another rookie flyer in undrafted free agency.
Running Backs
Denard Robinson
In a backfield that had a lot of mediocrity, Denard Robinson was a shining star. The former Michigan quarterback got fully acclimated to the running back position in his sophomore year in the NFL. Robinson averaged 4.3 yards per carry, running for 582 yards in 13 games behind the 25th ranked run blocking offensive line per PFF. Like Bortles, Robinson could benefit from improvements on the offensive line. I don’t see him as a player who is going to carry the load with 20+ carries per game, but he is the best back on the roster right now and I could see him averaging 15 carries per game in 2015. The only way Robinson’s value and carries could plummet is if the Jaguars draft a running back in the earlier rounds,which I see as unlikely with how many other needs they have.
Toby Gerhart
Toby Gerhart was a redraft favorite last off-season, going in the top five rounds in many drafts. I don’t think the dynasty community were as in love with him, but he was certainly a disappointment regardless, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry on 101 carries. For now, Gerhart is an end of roster player on dynasty teams and not much more. Like I said, Robinson is likely not a workhorse type back, so there will be some other back getting carries in the Jaguars backfield in the 2015 season.
Storm Johnson
Alongside his college teammate at quarterback, Storm Johnson had an unimpressive rookie campaign. He appeared in six games, with 29 carries for 86 yards – good for a 3.0 yards per carry. I expect Johnson to get more playing time in his sophomore year, but he certainly didn’t flash enough to get any sort of off-season buzz. Like Gerhart, he’s an end of the roster player who is completely dependent on quality playing time, which he didn’t get much of in 2014.
Wide Receivers
Allen Robinson
Robinson is the most valuable dynasty asset on the Jaguars offense. He was hobbled by an injury in the preseason and missed all of the preseason and most of the Jaguars week one game. Outside of that contest, he recorded at least four catches in his nine other games, making for a consistent PPR asset. He only scored two touchdowns in ten games, but I expect that number to increase in 2015 as the 6’2” 210 pound receiver has a similar profile to Dez Bryant.
Marqise Lee
Lee’s rookie year started slowly due to injuries as he missed three of the first five games and he was never really healthy until week 12 of the season. Starting in week 12, Lee showed signs of development with five consecutive games with three catches or more, featuring a 30+ yard catch in four of those first five games. Hamstrings were an issue for Lee in college, so the injuries may be a recurring problem, which would be disappointing for dynasty owners, but I think he showed signs in his rookie year that when healthy, he can be a solid dynasty asset.
Justin Blackmon
When the Jaguars selected a pair of wide receivers in the second round in the 2014 NFL Draft, many thought that had sealed the fate of Blackmon in Jacksonville. But, with recent reports, that may no longer be the case. The dynasty value of Blackmon is 100% dependent on his ability to stay clean, and if he is able to, I think he is a top 20 fantasy wide receiver and the most talented receiver on the Jaguars with Robinson not too far behind.
Cecil Shorts
Shorts is an unrestricted free agent and is unlikely to return to Jacksonville. He has been injury plagued throughout his career, missing 14 games in his first four seasons. The dynasty value of Shorts is heavily situation dependent in my opinion. He has recorded 50 or more receptions in each of the last three seasons and is in a somewhat situation to Emmanuel Sanders last season as he is not an amazing talent, but in the perfect situation, he can put up numbers. If you are a believer in Shorts as a talent, now is the time to buy, because if he lands in a great situation, his price will rise.
Allen Hurns
The value of Hurns is directly related to Justin Blackmon’s status with the Jaguars. If Blackmon returns to the Jaguars, there is not much value in being Blake Bortles’ fourth receiver. Some quarterbacks can support four fantasy assets at receiver, but Bortles is not one of them. So, for Hurns to be relevant in 2015, he would likely need an injury or suspension from the receivers higher on the depth chart.
Tight Ends
Marcedes Lewis and Clay Harbor
There’s not much at the tight end position for Jaguars in terms of dynasty value. Marcedes Lewis is a 30-year old tight end who hasn’t eclipsed 550 receiving yards since 2010 and Harbor is a 27-year old tight end who has never eclipsed 300 receiving yards in a season. So, unless the Jaguars address tight end in the draft or maybe free agency (Jordan Cameron?), no one is really rosterable at the tight end position for Jaguars outside of deep tight end premium leagues.
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