Dynasty Stock Market: Off-Season To Do List

Ryan McDowell Posted On December 18, 2014

foster

Here we are. For most reading this, your dynasty season has already concluded. Not that I doubt your ability. As DLF subscribers, you’re more than prepared to dominate your league. It’s just a numbers game and you can’t win ‘em all. So, now that your off-season has begun, what should you be doing?

In my third grade class, I teach my students about synthesizing, which is when your thinking changes. For students that age, this often happens when learning new information from a book or when learning a new math concept. As dynasty players, you are going through a period of synthesizing as well, at least you should be. Your thinking and your strategies should change when the off-season begins. After all, player value changes and you should take advantage of that fact.

I played in 15 dynasty leagues this season and was fortunate enough to advance to the title game in six of those leagues. While I’m anticipating those six contests this weekend, I am also already hard at work on the nine leagues where I fell short of the ultimate goal. While all teams and leagues are different, here are six things I am focusing on to improve my teams this off-season.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

1.) Acquire Draft Picks

I listed this first, not because it is most important, but instead because it is most pressing. The worst time to acquire draft picks is during the draft and every day that passes, those draft picks gain value. While it’s always fun to load up on first rounder picks, it should be easier and possibly as beneficial to focus on acquiring second and third round picks. Not only in the class of 2015 expected to be another impressive rookie class, loaded with late round values, but, as I said, those picks will be gaining value. You could package them for a higher pick or flip them to a rookie hungry opponent for a solid veteran who could help your lineup in the short-term.

2.) Drop Kickers, Defenses and Perishable Players

This one should go without saying, but if your league still uses kickers and defenses, it’s time to let them go. No kicker or defense is worth a roster spot during the off-season. Looking back at the past four seasons, on average, only one top five team defense per season is able to maintain their top five status to the following year. Looking specifically at the top five team defenses from 2013, along with their rank this year:

Team	2013 Fantasy Rank	2014 Fantasy Rank
Chiefs	1	16
Seahawks	2	14
Panthers	3	26
Bengals	4	23
Cardinals	5	5

As you can see, even the defending Super Bowl champions Seahawks, who many dynasty and redraft owners used a relatively high draft pick to acquire, failed to even score as a top 12 defense this season. Please drop your defense and add someone who has a chance to bring value to your team over the long-term.

I started to do some of the same research on kickers, but then remembered dynasty leagues shouldn’t even use kickers. If your league still uses the kickers, add another item on your off-season dynasty to-do list…petition to remove kickers from your lineups altogether.

Letting those perishable players go is the most difficult task, as it can sometimes be tricky to identify them. As a reminder, a perishable player is one who only carries value during the season. These are often older veterans who may or may not have value again next season. Along with the players mentioned in the article linked above, other examples are Nate Washington and Marcedes Lewis. These players are likely to remain on your waiver wire throughout the off-season, so you can grab them in August or September if they still have short-term value. By the way, I mentioned Antonio Gates as a perishable player in the original article. While I do expect his off-season value to drop, I would gladly keep him on my roster.

3.) Target Cheap Veterans

I’ve mentioned in a few recent articles my game plan last off-season was to add an infusion of older, “win now” type running backs to my youth filled, wide receiver heavy teams. This worked to perfection, as the combination of players like Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster, along with Julio Jones and Randall Cobb, led to a successful season.

This off-season, I’ll be taking this a step further. There’s really no reason to limit my trade offers to older running backs when players like Roddy White, Philip Rivers and the previously mentioned Gates will be dirt cheap for the next few months. Players like this could be key components to a title winning team a year from now. I wouldn’t go crazy buying all older players, but instead I will be assessing the needs of each of my teams and filling any discovered weaknesses with veterans.

4.) Play the Waiver Wire

This probably goes without saying, but it’s crucial that you stay active and monitor your waiver wire on a weekly basis, at least. There will be a long period of time without any significant news and the waiver wire will appear barren, but keeping on top of the latest signings, off-field news and camp battles will help you dominate your league.

Looking at the starting level players from each position, many could have been found on waiver wires last off-season. This includes Justin Forsett, CJ Anderson, Chris Ivory, Brandon LaFell and Delanie Walker. This doesn’t mean it’s easy to identify these players, but staying abreast of the recent news and knowing your waiver wire should help.

5.) Target Short-Term Running Backs

I’ve already mentioned this one in some of the above tasks, but it’s very important and has led some of my teams to a title game this weekend. It’s well established that all older players see their value dip during the off-season months, which is a large part of these tasks.

Often, dynasty owners treat running backs beyond age 26 as if they should be residents at the local senior citizens home, rather than suiting up each week and battling against 300 pound men. I have been guilty of this myself, with a laser like focus on the incoming rookie class, along with other young players. Looking back at the current top 24 running backs though, 14 of them, which represent 58%, are over 26 years old. Veteran running backs like Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Arian Foster and even Jamaal Charles should offer a very good return on your off-season investment.

6.) Complete Consolidation Trades

In fantasy football, studs rule. Like any statement, there could be holes punched in that one, but give me a team with Aaron Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas and Jimmy Graham and I’ll take my chances. In fact, I’m fortunate enough to have a roster with all of those players and more. I had each of those players along with a great deal of young depth, but I continued to fall short of a title. I decided to turn that depth into players who could make an impact for my team, rather than just fill bench spots.

I made two big trades in a span of two days in February and those deals, which were what I call consolidation trades. These trades turned out great for me, but at the time, many thought I overpaid…seriously.

Trade #1

I gave Khiry Robinson, Victor Cruz, Cecil Shorts

I received Le’Veon Bell

There are a couple of important things to be learned from this trade. This deal came on the heels of the surprising release of Darren Sproles by the Saints. With Sproles now gone, the value of Robinson was booming. He was not a player that I necessarily a believer in, so I began to see of the Mark Ingram owner had interest. I began by offering Robinson, along with Cruz for Bell, since I had depth at receiver, but lacked many useable running backs beyond McCoy. That trade was rejected, with a comment alluding to how close he considered the deal to be. I acted on that comment, adding Shorts, who had much more value a season ago, to the deal. It was quickly accepted and I had moved some depth for what would become a cornerstone of the 2014 version of my team.

Trade #2

I gave Jordan Reed, Ryan Mathews, David Wilson

I received Rob Gronkowski

For context, this was during the long period of uncertainty regarding the health of Gronkowski, while at the same time, a few positive reports began to emerge regarding Wilson and his possible return to the field. Obviously, those two players went in different directions this season. Reed and Mathews were both players who were riding my bench and had injury concerns. That is a bad combination and I felt fine “overpaying” for the potential game changer in Gronkowski.

Neither of these deals are shared as a lesson in ripping off fellow owners, but rather as a best case example of consolidating your roster to acquire some of the best players in the game. Getting the best player in the deal will almost always work in your favor.

The Hall of Fame game, the first pre-season game of the year, is a little over seven months away, so you should get started on this to-do list as soon as possible.

Follow @RyanMc23 on Twitter

[am4show]

Author
Recent Posts

Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.