Tuesday Transactions: Week Eleven

Eric Hardter Posted On November 18, 2014

garcon

Dynasty football is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint. With that said, in-season roster management is still every bit as critical as in a standard re-draft format, and arguably even more so given the potential long-term ramifications. As such, this weekly piece is here to provide you with a dozen moves it might just behoove you to make.

Continuing, these transactions will be broken down into four categories: players you should buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low. The first two are self explanatory and follow the typical stock market analogy, which is that you should pounce when the market fluctuates in your favor – if you can get the most bang for your buck or scoop up the metaphorical penny stocks who have room to grow, it could be in your best interest to do so. Conversely, the latter two categories represent a contradictory stance, and some might even consider them “desperation” moves – however, it’s my belief that buying high beats buying higher, and selling low is preferable to selling even lower.

Before I dispense my advice though, I want to provide one final disclaimer – these opinions are my own. If you’re higher or lower on any of the players mentioned below you should absolutely stick to your guns. With that said, I believe there’s also enough of a sample size thus far in the season where we can begin to diverge from our off-season assessments.

In the interest of transparency, here were my week ten suggestions:

Buy Low: Cody Latimer, Rashad Jennings and Travis Kelce

Sell High: Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore and Roddy White

Buy High: Percy Harvin, Josh Gordon and Jarvis Landry

Sell Low: Vernon Davis, Marques Colston and Carson Palmer

Jennings’ (18-59-0, 4-8-0) was a ball-hog in his return, while Kelce’s minimal returns (3-37-0) actually led the Chiefs in receiving. Gore (19-95-0, 2-19-0) looked spry but lost a fumble, while White (8-75-1) was the catalyst in Atlanta’s passing attack. Landry (5-46-1) continued his ascent up the depth chart versus the Bills, propagating a solid rookie season. Davis (1-7-0) was a non-factor yet again, while Colston (4-56-0) maintained his minimalist ways in a disappointing loss to the Bengals. Latimer, Peterson, Gordon and Palmer were all inactive for various reasons, while Harvin was on bye.

Onto the fallout from week 11!

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Buy Low

Pierre Garcon, WR WAS – No, I can’t defend this assertion with any 2014 numbers, because the truth is Garcon has been nearly devoid of relevance so far this season. With that said, we’re still talking about a player who led the league with 113 receptions in 2013, a feat obviously not easy to accomplish. Yes, game-flow and a lack of weapons played a large part in that, but Garcon still had to get on the field and accumulate those stats. Long story short, he’s not as bad as this year has shown and if you can get him for a late second round pick (or possibly lower), I’d do so.
Marquess Wilson, WR CHI – It’s no mystery why the Bears chose to release veteran wide receiver Santonio Holmes last week – okay, it’s mostly because he’s useless at this stage in his career, but Wilson’s return from the short-term IR list had a lot to do with it as well. Though he did precious little on Sunday (2-11-0), Wilson remains a big-bodied receiver in the mold of starters Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, and would be targeted relentlessly if either was to go down. Tight end Martellus Bennett has also cooled off after a hot start, meaning there should be opportunities for the sophomore pass catcher.
Eric Ebron, TE DET – As I’ve mentioned on numerous occasions, the last time a rookie finished as a PPR TE1 was the incomparable Rob Gronkowski in 2010. In other words, it’s just not something that happens at the position. Ebron’s slow start should therefore come as no surprise, especially considering he missed time due to injury. With that said, I’ve now seen multiple rookie mock draft “do-overs” where he’s fallen to the middle of the second round, despite his firm status as a mid-to-late first rounder over the summer. If you can cash in on the new market value, you’d still be getting the same player, but now at a significantly better price.

Sell High

Chris Borland, LB SF – Don’t get me wrong, the “2014 Paul Worrilow” has flashed immense playmaking skills over the past three weeks. His eye-popping numbers (48 tackles, 7.0 TFL, two interceptions and three passes defensed) have provided a boon to owners smart enough to stash him early in the season or shell out their FAAB money. With that said, the long game could potentially yield diminished returns, as injured starters NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis will be back healthy, presumably reclaiming their ILB positions. Borland should remain a starter, but will more likely be pushed to an OLB spot that typically doesn’t produce robust fantasy value. Capitalizing on Borland’s current price point might just be the prudent move.
CJ Anderson, RB DEN – Yes, Anderson’s aggregate numbers (9-29-0, 8-86-0) filled the stat sheet in PPR leagues, but that was primarily dictated on injuries to his skill position cohorts. The trio of Emmanuel Sanders, Julius Thomas and Montee Ball all went down with injuries, causing quarterback Peyton Manning to lean more heavily on his starting tailback. Though he should have the run of things while his fellow ball carriers are on the mend, I wouldn’t necessarily count on these statistics being replicated.
Coby Fleener, TE IND – See Anderson above. An injury to fellow tight end Dwayne Allen caused Fleener to receive more looks than usual, which he managed to turn into seven receptions for 144 yards. While this looks nice on paper, I wouldn’t expect it to keep up, as his yardage represents 32.8% of his yearly total. Allen is expected to return potentially as soon as week 12, and Indy’s opponents won’t routinely scheme against TY Hilton and Reggie Wayne. This could and should easily stand as Fleener’s high-water mark for the year.

Buy High

Roy Helu Jr., RB WAS – Though starter Alfred Morris has been rejuvenated due to the return of starting quarterback Robert Griffin III, the Redskins remain a poor team prone to falling behind on the scoreboard – this routinely leads to Morris’ removal and Helu has benefited by picking up the receiving slack. To that point, Helu has 14 receptions in the four games started by Griffin, and on the season has averaged 11.4 YPC. He should continue to provide low-end FLEX viability for the remainder of the year, but more importantly is a free agent come 2015. It’s at this point I expect him to pay even bigger dividends.
Ryan Mathews, RB SD – Mathews returned from injury on Sunday and announced his presence to the tune of 16 carries for 70 yards, leading the team in touches. Rookie Branden Oliver still got a reasonable amount of touches, but it’s evident this is Mathews’ backfield as long as he’s healthy. This should give him PPR RB2-level viability for the rest of the season.
Jordan Matthews, WR PHI – Yes, the Mark Sanchez effect is real, but as mentioned with Garcon above, Matthews is still on the field making plays. To that point, the rookie has accrued 17 targets over the past two games, which he’s turned into a robust 12 receptions for 245 yards and three touchdowns – that’s good for an average of 27.25 PPR points per game, a rate that is impressive regardless of the impending regression. The bottom line is Matthews has climbed the Philly depth chart while propagating the trend of phenomenal rookie play – as mentioned in the intro, buying him high now beats buying him higher later.

Sell Low

Giovani Bernard, RB CIN – Selling low should still net 85-90% of his prior value, but the writing is on the wall with regards to Gio’s usage. Freshman running back Jeremy Hill has been outstanding in his stead (63 carries for 361 yards and two touchdowns) and is deserving of more work in what is likely to become a split backfield. Both were picked in the second round by the same regime and while it’s not fair to ignore Bernard’s fine rookie year, he no longer has any inherent advantage over the surging Hill. He may be turning into Shane Vereen-Midwest before our very eyes.
Travaris Cadet, RB NO – We were supposed to see the rise of the newest member of the Saints’ plug-and-play RB factory, but Cadet simply hasn’t paid off. His 14 catches over the past four games have been nice, but he hasn’t approached the 9.3 touches per game the injured Pierre Thomas received prior to injury. With Thomas due back sooner rather than later, Cadet’s time in the spotlight was both short-lived and non-existent.
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB IND – I hate ending this column with an injured player for the second week in a row, but my reason for doing this is to separate any emotional response from the fantasy bottom line. In this case, Bradshaw has accumulated yet another lower-body injury, a fractured fibula which will end his stellar 2014 campaign. For a soon-to-be 29-year-old running back with a significant injury history, this could be the end for the dynamic ball carrier. If you could flip him for any type of younger player or any pick, you’d arguably be gaining upside in the deal.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.