Put a Milo on Him: Isaiah Crowell vs. Terrance West

Scott Peak Posted On July 20, 2014

westcrowell

Fans of Moneyball will know what “Put a Milo on Him” means and how it can impact player evaluation. It can keep fantasy owners from making the same mistakes over and over again. As explained in the book, Phil Milo was an assistant with the general manager of the Oakland A’s, Billy Beane. He had a personality that didn’t mesh well with others and he was soon replaced. When scouting baseball talent, if a player didn’t have the right mental make-up, he was labeled a “Milo” and removed from the draft board. Beane changed the way baseball teams are built, and lessons learned in Moneyball can easily be applied to fantasy football. Let’s talk about two polarizing players – Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell. Which player is the better target for dynasty owners?

The story on Crowell has been told over and over. Five-star recruit out of high school, enrolls in a big-time Southeastern Conference (SEC) school, the University of Georgia Bulldogs. Crowell played one year, and looked the part. As a freshman, he had 850 yards rushing and six touchdowns. He displayed strength and vision, plowing through SEC defenders with relative ease. He was a future NFL star. Then, he ran into trouble, and was booted from the team. Those who like Crowell as a prospect might say he didn’t commit a heinous offense, especially compared to other athletes with worse transgressions who don’t get kicked out of school. That makes me wonder, why was Crowell kicked off the Bulldogs? Then I read this article by Matt Waldman. Crowell landed at Alabama State and played football for head coach Reggie Barlow, a former NFL player. Scroll down to an interview with Barlow, and I find it very intriguing.

“When you’re NFL personnel and you’re investing big money in these young adults, you want to know he’s going to play to the best of his ability for as long as he can play, you want to know he’s going to practice to the best of his ability and you want to know he’s going to be a good teammate and not cause strife.”

[am4show have=’p2;p3;p4;p5;p6;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

That last point is exactly why I will not draft Crowell on any of my dynasty teams. I’m guessing there is a faction of readers who won’t agree, but I will give you some names to ponder. Kenny Britt. Josh Gordon. Aldon Smith. Justin Blackmon. All have been in deep trouble and have or will miss a large chunk of playing time in the NFL, and if they’re not on the field, they aren’t scoring points for fantasy football teams. Yet, all of them have been, or continue to be, desirable assets to dynasty owners. Reasoning might include taking a risk on talent, upside or a discounted price. If a player isn’t going to score points for a fantasy team, price does not matter. Even trading a fourth round rookie pick is a waste. I drafted Stevan Ridley in one dynasty league in the fourth round of a rookie draft after he was supposedly too slow and lacked upside. Alfred Morris could have been picked in the fifth round of rookie drafts.

In fantasy football, perception does not always agree with reality. Or results. The best fantasy owners discard online rhetoric and make bold decisions, either to take an unheralded talent (Ridley) or avoid a coveted player with a ton of baggage (Britt). Owners who spend precious draft picks on a player like Crowell ignore his past mistakes and are obsessed with what is heard online, how his talent is off-the-charts. At the same time, a lengthy track record of off-the-field issues is not prioritized.

Football players can make mistakes and still be forgiven. Arrests for assaulting spouses. Driving drunk. Felonious abuse of a TSA employee. Driving Lamborghinis into a tree. But not giving full effort to win games? This is only my opinion and I could be wrong, but that’s the impression I’m getting when I read Barlow’s comments on Crowell. It sounds to me like Crowell didn’t care enough about his teammates to try hard in practice and not be a distraction. He was a huge distraction when he came over from University of Georgia, and if he had an ounce of common sense or desire to be an NFL star, he would have changed his ways. Not for fantasy football owners, but for himself and his teammates. When I read those quotes from Barlow, that’s a huge red flag for me. The NFL is not college. Coaches need to win to keep their jobs. Same goes for veteran players. NFL players are older, have families and need to make money to support them. NFL players could get cut anytime. Fred Jackson has to overcome age every year to prove doubters wrong. NFL veterans will not tolerate a player who won’t make the effort to help a team win. Coaches and players want to keep their jobs. If they don’t win, they get fired, collect unemployment and wait until the next opportunity arises. If it ever will.

I will say Crowell’s tape is impressive. I’m not a scout, nor am I pretending to be one. As a fan, when I watch Crowell on tape, I see a ferocious, determined runner with good vision and the ability to gain yards in chunks. He looks like an NFL player, toying with SEC defenders. I definitely got excited when I watched him play. I thought he’d really impress at the NFL Combine, but curiously that didn’t happen. He did finish fourth in the bench press (23 reps) and had the fourth best vertical jump (38 inches). Yet, he also ran a 4.57 40 yard dash. He is a large man, so that can be forgiven. The rest of Crowell’s workout was nothing special, and for a player with his track record of indiscretions, you would think he’d work extra-hard to have a huge combine performance. If Crowell is that good of an athlete, why didn’t his combine support it? Maybe he had a bad day. But, for a player with his off-the-field baggage, I have to wonder how much of his performance was based on a lack of effort. It might seem unfair to raise this question, but given all the drama surrounding Crowell, I think it’s critical for dynasty owners to give it some thought.

West is the exact opposite of Crowell. West was a heralded high school running back out of Baltimore, but academic issues kept him out of a big-time college football program. Instead of sulking about it, West got a job selling shoes to support his family. He worked hard to regain eligibility and finally got a shot with Towson University. He took that opportunity and literally ran with it.

West is everything I look for in an NFL talent. Humble. Hard-working. Determined. Talented. Most of all, he cares. Or at least seems to care. Either way, I like it. West played at a small school in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). Crowell played in the SEC for a year. Doesn’t matter to me. West looks like a good teammate, a fighter, with a determination to succeed. Will he? I don’t know. But I believe in him, certainly way more than Crowell. When I watch West play, and again I’m no scout, but I see a runner with surprising agility for a man his size. West can change direction quickly, and has the vision to find open lanes. He is tough to bring down, and while he’s no speedster, he is an explosive, determined runner. West dominated the FCS, rushed for 4,854 yards and scored 86 touchdowns in three years. He ran for 2,509 yards and scored 42 touchdowns in 2013 alone. At the combine, he didn’t have a great performance, but he didn’t fall on his face either. His 40-yard dash was respectable for a man his size (4.54 seconds), but I’m not drafting West for his combine performance. I’m drafting West because I believe he can succeed, and that’s enough for me

Let’s now compare college statistics for Crowell, West and running backs who have thrived in a Shanahan system.

westchart

Numbers can be deceptive and not always predictive of outcomes, or in this case, fantasy production. Still, I see running backs who experienced success in a Shanahan system (Foster, Torain, Morris) yet were underrated by NFL scouts and fantasy football experts. Foster had the most receptions, but almost half came in his junior year at University of Tennessee (39), and he didn’t get drafted. West did manage to haul in 26 receptions his last year at Towson, an improvement compared to his prior two years combined (10).

One knock against West is his age as he’s already 23 years old. That is a bit old when compared to Crowell, who is just 21 years old. Still, maybe that will help West be a more mature player and NFL running backs have had great success entering the league at the same age (Foster).

I have seen Crowell routinely drafted ahead of West and it’s mind-boggling to me. I won’t complain, since I’ll gladly scoop up West a few spots later. Still, not only do I think drafting Crowell ahead of West is a mistake for dynasty owners, I think drafting Crowell at all is not worth it. I’d rather take a shot on players drafted after Crowell, such as James White, Jerick McKinnon or Andre Williams. Heck, I’d even rather take Tevin Reese, a player with incredible speed on a team that needs a field-stretcher at wide receiver, the San Diego Chargers. Reese is a free agent in most dynasty leagues.

If you are thinking about taking Crowell ahead of West, do yourself a favor, put a Milo on him.

[/am4show]