IDP Draft Watch
We can evaluate defensive talent all we want, but it can only take us so far in IDP leagues. Offensively, we always hear about “talent rising to the top,” but the most important factors in IDP are situation, scheme and opportunity – that’s why some of the most talented and dynamic IDP players are far better “real” football contributors than fantasy factors. This is where the NFL draft is key for IDP owners. Instantaneously, we need to determine who has the best opportunity and situation presented.
With that, here are a handful of story lines and situations to keep close tab on throughout the draft.
1.) Will Clowney land in IDP mud?
Jadeveon Clowney’s landing spot has been talked about ad nausem over the past few months. The Texans now claim they’re unsettled with their selection and may be leaning against Clowney. I think still think they’re playing games and this talk is a smoke screen, though. I believe the young end will head to Houston. In that situation, Houston would instantly create, arguably, the most disruptive defense. For fantasy purposes, this couldn’t be worse. If Clowney ends up in Houston, he’ll stand up and be classified as an outside linebacker – that’s a killer for IDP purposes unless you’re in a big-play league where he can salvage some value with his sack potential. Despite my Houston presumption, if the Texans pass or a trade occurs for Clowney and he lands in a 4-3 defense, that would be a nice surprise. In that situation, he’d be classified as a defensive end and shoot up rookie draft boards.
2.) What happens with all of the tweeners?
There are a ton of hybrid pass-rushers in this draft class (i.e., Dee Ford, Jadeveon Clowney, Khalil Mack, Scott Crichton, etc.). Their fantasy value is highly dependent on what scheme they land in. If any of these players are drafted into a 3-4 scheme, they’ll slide down draft boards. On the flip side, a 4-3 scheme could slate them as a 4-3 linebacker or a defensive end depending on the player. It’s going to be important to sort through this madness come draft weekend and as we head into rookie drafts.
3.) Who replaces London Fletcher in Washington?
We know Perry Riley will once again be one of Washington’s inside linebacker starters in 2014. This time, London Fletcher won’t be along side. With Fletcher retiring, there is a sub-package role and a significant number of snaps available – this spot is an IDP production well.
Many once thought Keenan Robinson was the incumbent to Fletcher, but injuries have kept Robinson from progressing and may have squashed his opportunity. Akeem Jordan and Daryl Sharpton are also in the mix, but they’re stop-gap players who won’t be around long-term.
This year’s draft will be telling. If Washington doesn’t add a linebacker, it’ll be a sign that Washington still has hopes for Robinson. If an addition is made, Robinson will continue to fizzle and we’ll have someone who is instantaneously a huge IDP target.
4.) Will Foster hold onto the middle linebacker job in Tampa?
We mentioned it earlier this offseason, as well, but given Mason Foster’s struggles in coverage, it’s likely Lovie Smith will be searching for a linebacker who can drop back and make play. Foster has been inconsistent for much of his career and struggles downfield in coverage, so he may find himself elsewhere in the near term. With Foster in his contract year in 2014, an early addition at middle linebacker would be a clear indication that he won’t return to Tampa. The addition of a rookie will not only be an indication for Foster, but a linebacker addition in the first half of the draft will present IDP owners with a nice long-term option.
5.) Opportunity at linebacker in Oakland?
Kevin Burnett currently owns the Raiders’ weakside linebacker spot, but he’s 32 years old and in the last year of his conract. There’s talk of Oakland selecting Khalil Mack, which would shake up the Raiders’ linebacker group. Mack’s addition would likely push Sio Moore from the strongside linebacker spot. That could then have the ripple effect of uprooting Burnett from his weakside linebacker role. In this case, Moore’s stock would soar.
Whether it’s Mack or another young linebacker that’s added to this group, with Burnett on his final year and aging, a linebacker addition would come with some short-term and long-term IDP value. Not adding a linebacker may be an indication that Miles Burris is healthy again and ready to contribute like he did in the latter half of his rookie year.
6.) Who will be the top ‘rookie corner rule’ options?
If you don’t know the rookie corner rule as an IDP owner, you should. Regardless of how good a rookie corner is supposed to be in coverage, he’ll be tested as a rookie. Veterans always pick on the rookie corner, which means a larger volume of tackle opportunities. As we all know, tackle opportunities translate to IDP potential. So, as corners come off the board, it’s important to evaluate if the corner could walk into a starting role as a rookie and serve as a top IDP cornerback option.
There are a few teams with available opportunities at the corner spot to watch for this year’s rookie corner rule options – the Jets, Panthers, Browns, Colts, Jaguars, Seahawks and Chargers.
7.) Time for a youth movement in Jacksonville?
The Jaguars have a big hole at linebacker. Next to Paul Pozluszny in the middle sits an opportunity at weakside linebacker. Former linebacker Russell Allen was released earlier this off-season after it was determined he had a stroke back in 2013 – that leaves a vacancy at a spot that will be naturally productive for IDP owners. I’d expect an addition later this week.
Separately, the Jaguars have brought in a number of defensive ends in free agency, but their group consists of players who are either mediocre or a short-term option. This with the exception of Andre Branch who started making plays in 2013, but has been an underachiever to say the least. With the departure of Jeremy Mincey, the group now consists of Jason Babin (33), Red Bryant (30), Chris Clemons (33) and Tyson Alualu (mediocre). As this defense continues to be built, watch to see if the Jaguars grab a weakside linebacker or defensive end. These two positions could yield short-term and long-term opportunities.
A number of people are predicting Khalil Mack to the Jaguars with the third overall pick. He’d likely play the ‘Leo’ or ‘Elephant’ role on the Jaguars defense (see Clemons use in Seattle) or he could also be used like Von Miller (strongside linebacker with hand in dirt in pass rushing situations). If this selection happens, it’ll be interesting to see how he’s classified between linebacker and defensive end (see story line #2).
8.) Is Hunt the answer in Cincinnati?
In 2013, the Bengals drafted a raw Margus Hunt as depth with hopes he’d develop into a starter. With the exit of Michael Johnson in free agency, that hope will be put to the test rather quickly. There isn’t much competition on the roster for Hunt if he progresses like the Bengals hope. The question is whether the Bengals are comfortable with Hunt given the highly publicized growing pains in 2013. If the Bengals don’t add another defensive end early on in the draft, it’ll certainly support Hunt’s IDP potential.
On the flip-side, if another defensive end is added, Hunt’s stock will drop and another young rookie could be faced with a sizeable long-term opportunity.
9.) Selvie and Mincey holding the edge down in Big D?
The Cowboys lost DeMarcus Ware in free agency a few months back and added very little as a response. Because of that, expect the addition of a defensive end this coming weekend. The question will be in what round. Right now, 2013 breakout end George Selvie and free agent addition Jeremy Mincey are holding down the fort. The likely situation is that Mincey will be used as a short-term filler or situational player until the added rookie is ready for a full volume of snaps. The bottom line is this is a prime situation for a rookie defensive end.
10.) Time for the Giants to add some talent at linebacker?
With oft-injured Jon Beason patrolling the middle along with mediocrity across the Giants linebacker group, New York is a strong favorite to draft a linebacker. That would place a rookie in a very solid situation with the opportunity to unseat Spencer Paysigner on the weakside or push Beason to the weakside and take the middle. This is a perfect landing spot for a rookie.
There’s lots more to watch for as well (e.g., Denver and linebacker, Vikings and linebacker). What do you have your eye on?
Editor’s Note: We’ll again be having our annual live IDP pick-by-pick analysis all through the NFL Draft to cover these very situations as they unfold.
