IDP Scheme Changes, Part Two

Steve Wyremski

As we posted in the first installment of this series, one of the most important IDP actions to monitor throughout the off season is scheme changes. They can have a huge impact on the IDP landscape, present opportunities for value on the waiver wire, or destroy IDP stud value.

For example, when the Houston Texans switched from a 3-4 base to a 4-3 base scheme in 2011 it resulted in an IDP position switch for Mario Williams from a defensive end to an outside linebacker. As many of us know, that destroyed Williams’ IDP value in tackle-heavy leagues as, generally, outside linebackers are tough to depend on in that format.

On the flipside, a switch from a 3-4 base scheme may find an outside linebacker swapping to a defensive end. That could result in a big spike in a player’s IDP value if a guy moves from outside linebacker to defensive end given the handful of studs at latter.

There are a number of IDP impacting changes that have happened thus far in 2014. The annual scheme changes is another example supporting that taking IDP studs early in a rookie startup may not be the best strategy. Philosophy changes have a significant and immediate impact on the defensive side of the ball, much more than on the offensive side.

Here is an early take on how things are falling into place for three more teams who face significant changes:

Cleveland Browns

New head coach Mike Pettine and defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil favor a 3-4 hybrid scheme – that’s exactly what Cleveland switched to in 2013, so the fit is right. O’Neil and Pettine worked together in Buffalo and New York, and now have worked together for about five years. Expect the defense to be attacking much like it was when both were with the Jets and Bills.

It’s worth noting that O’Neil was enthralled with Barkevious Mingo during last year’s draft. In fact, leading up to the draft, O’Neil worked to convince the Bills to select Mingo, but the Browns got to him first. He went so far as to have his wife bake cupcakes with Mingo’s name on them as a final push for the Mingo selection. The Bills didn’t get the opportunity, but a year later O’Neil has his guy. That relationship is going to be one of the more interesting things to watch with O’Neil throughout the off season.

Barkevious Mingo, OLB

mingoThe hiring of both O’Neil and Pettine works in Mingo’s favor. As mentioned, Pettine and O’Neil come from a background of attacking defenses. Pettine effectively used Mario Williams in Buffalo and coached Terrell Suggs in Baltimore. He knows how to get production out of his primetime pass rushers and should accomplish that with Mingo as well. The staff is already pushing Mingo to add weight to his frame in an effort to help him shed more blocks and become more disruptive. Double-digit sacks are a realistic expectation for Mingo in 2014 with remaining upside.

TJ Ward, SS

Ward excelled in Horton’s 2013 defense and should do the same with Pettine/O’Neil’s scheme in 2014 given the IDP success we saw from Buffalo’s Aaron Williams in 2013. Expect top safety production again from Ward.

Jabaal Sheard / Paul Kruger, OLB

O’Neil has highlighted Kruger, Sheard, and Mingo as guys who have stood out and who they need to get on one-on-one match-ups to create sacks. Kruger only had four and a half sacks in 2013 and Sheard finished the year nicely with three sacks in his final five games to close out his first season at outside linebacker. Outside of big-play or deep leagues, these two are likely waiver wire fodder. However, given the success that Pettine/O’Neil have in creating sacks for some underperforming players, expect an increase in sacks in 2014 from the Browns outside linebackers compared to 2013.

D’Qwell Jackson, ILB

Jackson is a better fit as a 4-3 middle linebacker and there’s been some buzz that Jackson may be let go given the awkward fit and a roster bonus he’s due next month. Obviously, if Jackson moves on, that would create significant opportunity in the middle of the Browns defense. The beneficiary would likely come via free agency or the draft given the lack of inside linebacker talent currently on the roster aside from Craig Robertson. Keep an eye on the situation as the Brown’s have said that they’ll make a decision in advance of when his roster bonus is due in mid-March.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With the Lovie Smith hire and the addition of Leslie Frazier as the Bucs’ new defensive coordinator, the expectation is a Tampa 2 defense will be instilled. While that’s been Lovie’s tendency throughout much of his career and is his pedigree, don’t forget that he played a lot of man-to-man coverage towards the end of his days with the Bears given Charles Tillman’s and Tim Jennings’s man coverage ability and the evolution of NFL offenses. With Darrelle Revis in the mix, Smith and Frazier are likely to apply a 4-3 base with man-to-man to take advantage of Revis’s coverage ability. They’ll certainly mix in some Tampa 2 packages, but it’s unlikely to be a strict Tampa 2 defense. Much of the media coverage of this hire has pushed the Tampa 2 adoption, so this view is contrary to the general knee jerk reaction to this hire.

Here is a direct quote from Smith confirming it: “We’re a 4-3 team. There’s a reason why we have ‘Tampa 2′ associated into one of our coverages,” Smith said. “But I want you to know, especially if you are Darrelle Revis, we don’t play Cover 2 every snap. We have plays for a great cover corner that’s physical and he can do [different] things.”

Mason Foster, MLB

Upon assembling the new coaching staff, there were immediate rumors that Frazier hinted that an upgrade at middle linebacker is needed. Foster has been inconsistent thus far in his NFL career and struggles in coverage, so that’s no surprise. Given the type of middle linebackers that Lovie Smith is accustomed to relying on (London Fletcher, Brian Urlacher, Hardy Nickerson), this upgrade leak isn’t much of a surprise. Granted, Lavonte David is the leader of the linebacker group, but it’s reasonable to expect an upgrade in the middle.

There aren’t many other significant impacts of this hire. Smith talked up Mark Barron and Gerald McCoy, as well, who should be the cornerstones of this defense with David.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys pushed Monte Kiffin to an assistant position and promoted Rod Marinelli who’s had a ton of success with the Tampa 2 defense. Turnovers are Marinelli’s focus as we saw with the Bears from 2010 through 2012 when the defense was at the top of the league in turnovers. Marinelli’s defense is centered on defensive line play to create pressure and drive turnovers. Director of player personnel, Stephen Jones, stated rebuilding the defensive line is a priority this off season with the likely loss of Anthony Spencer and Jason Hatcher, so it appears the staff is on the same page. With the Marinelli hire, here are the players impacted most:

George Selvie, DE

Selvie’s 2013 is a credit to Marinelli who took Selvie from a player on the street to a breakout player with roughly 40 solo tackles and seven sacks. Expect Selvie to continue to get coached up given his freakish athletic ability and the production he flashed in 2013.

DeMarcus Ware, DE

Not that he’ll be cut in 2014, but coming off of a mediocre season, Ware is due a significant non-guaranteed amount of money over the next two years and is apparently not open to a pay cut. With that, he’ll be on the hot seat in 2014. Whatever young player the Cowboys add this off season at defensive end via the draft or free agency is someone to stash. That individual may be a year away from starting. It’s a situation to keep an eye on for long-term purposes.

Defensive Tackle

Jason Hatcher is a good bet to be lost to free agency, so there is opportunity here. Expect the Cowboys to upgrade this spot via the draft given the aforementioned importance of the defensive line for Marinelli, but Tyrone Crawford is suspected to be moving inside. This could be an interesting option with upside for owners in defensive tackle required leagues. Just remember he’s coming off of a major injury from last summer.

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