Dynasty Stock Market: Flash Forward to 2015

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 10, 2014

gerhart2 The 2014 NFL free agency period is all but over with all players of note to dynasty owners finding new homes or remaining with their teams thanks to a new pact. Although many of the moves over the past few weeks were expected, there were some transactions that may have caught you by surprise. A quartet of players saw their dynasty value significantly rise as result of free agency and these are moves we probably should’ve seen coming.

At the running back position, longtime NFL backup runners now look to be starters as Toby Gerhart inked a three-year deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars and former Raider Rashad Jennings landed with the New York Giants and is in line to start, barring a miraculous David Wilson return. Both of these players were set to be unrestricted free agents at the conclusion of the 2013 season, unlike other players who were surprisingly cut by their former team. The pair also played well with limited opportunities. Jennings most significant playing time came last season in his first and only year with the Raiders. Starter Darren McFadden was dealing with some nagging injuries that left him in and out of the lineup on a week-to-week basis. McFadden rarely played from week nine through the conclusion of the regular season and over that time period, Jennings performed as a RB1 in PPR leagues, averaging over seventeen fantasy points per game. Gerhart has not had quite the same opportunity playing behind the superhuman Adrian Peterson, but even in 2011, when Peterson missed four of the final six weeks, Gerhart played well in his absence, averaging over sixteen fantasy points per game – good enough to place him as the RB10 over that time frame. So, both players have proven to dynasty owners and the rest of the NFL that they can succeed, which of course led to their respective signings.

A pair of wide receivers also saw their dynasty value shoot up as a result of free agency. Former Pittsburgh Steeler Emmanuel Sanders bolted, not for New England as many expected, but to the Denver Broncos and the best offense in football. Meanwhile, Golden Tate chose to leave the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks and still upgraded his situation by signing with the wide receiver needy Detroit Lions. Sanders has been a solid wide receiver for the Steelers over the past four seasons, but he’s been little more than a tease for fantasy owners. Only this past season did he finally crack the top 50 wideouts, but he did so in an inefficient manner with his lowest yards per catch of his career. In Denver, Sanders will likely be relegated to the third option, at best, in the passing game, just as he was when Mike Wallace was still in Pittsburgh. The difference, of course, is the quality of the offense and the volume of targets, which comes with playing alongside Peyton Manning.

For Sanders owners, this was a best-case scenario and his flirtation with the Patriots in past seasons made it obvious that Sanders would not be back in the Steel City. It also seemed a near certainty Tate would be leaving Seattle, mostly due to the addition of Percy Harvin and the smart spending habits Seattle has displayed in the past. Spending a lot on a second wide receiver in their run heavy offense never made much sense. So, we knew Tate would be with a new team, but signing with the Lions was among the top options for his dynasty value. The Lions have desperately needed a WR2 for years and quarterback Matthew Stafford throws the ball more than anyone. Tate potentially gained more value than any other player as a result of free agency.

These four players had some qualities in common which could help identify the next set of players to experience a dramatic rise in value. First, we knew these players would all be free agents. As I mentioned earlier, none of these were surprise cap casualties, but instead were scheduled to be unrestricted free agents. Not only were they scheduled to be free agents, but there were some signs that they might not return to their team. Next, they had all displayed their talent and ability to perform, when given the opportunity, albeit often limited. Finally, there were all players who did not have a great deal of value entering the 2013 season. In fact, Jennings was probably on your league’s waiver wire. Depending on the depth of the league, some of the others may have been as well.

As is often mentioned here at DLF though, it is necessary to stay on top of things in order to achieve and maintain success in dynasty leagues. So, with the above criteria in mind, let’s dig for some 2015 free agents who could prove to be valuable assets this time next year.

Examining the upcoming free agent class is enough to make your head spin. It’s basically a who’s who of elite NFL players and while many of them could sign contract extensions with their current team before they hit the open market, the thought of some of these players free to sign anywhere is breathtaking. Here are just a few of the players set to be unrestricted free agents in the off-season of 2015: Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Tom Brady, DeMarco Murray, Shane Vereen, AJ Green, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Michael Crabtree, Roddy White, Jimmy Graham, Jordan Cameron and Julius Thomas. Wow! Granted, none of those fit the mold I outlined above since none of these players are expected to leave their current team. Let’s look at a pair of players with little current value who could be dynasty risers next year:

Mikel Leshoure, RB DET

It was an odd way to begin a career.

As a rookie in 2012, Lions running back Mikel Leshoure was suspended for the first two games of the season. While this did not seem to be a major setback, it obviously hurt, especially after Kevin Smith got off to a hot start, averaging over 80 yards per game in the season’s opening pair of games. Not only did Leshoure play well upon his week three return, he dominated the run game for the Lions. After back-to back quality games from Smith, he gained less then 20 rushing yards the rest of the 2012 season, while Leshoure went on to be a borderline RB1 from week three on, finishing as the RB13.

What happened next was even more odd.

The team signed Reggie Bush in the 2013 off-season and Joique Bell overtook Leshoure on the depth chart. Leshoure went from gaining just shy of 800 rushing yards to only getting two rushing attempts in the entire 2013 season. There was some speculation the team would trade or even release Leshoure since they’ve clearly soured on him, but that has yet to happen and appears doubtful at this point. Following the 2014 season though, Leshoure will be an unrestricted free agent and I can’t imagine him returning to the Lions. There are a large number of aging starting running backs around the league, so many teams could be willing to take a shot on him.

Jarrett Boykin, WR GB

Wide receiver Jarrett Boykin was also a rookie in 2012, though he saw very little action as part of the Green Bay Packers deep receiving corps. 2013 was a different story though as veteran Greg Jennings had moved on and the Packers dealt with multiple injuries, namely to starter Randall Cobb. Even though he served as the third wideout in most sets, Boykin still amassed over 80 receptions and 650 yards. Now, veteran James Jones is off to Oakland and Boykin is expected to play an even larger role in 2014. He’s still likely the third option in the receiving game behind Cobb and Jordy Nelson and hasn’t given anyone a reason to think he’d like to leave the Packers. The issue is more about money and timing. Not only will Boykin be an unrestricted free agent next year, so will stars Cobb and Nelson, who will be the clear priorities for the Green Bay front office. It would make some sense for Boykin to look for a larger role and get out from the deep group of wideouts that inhabit Green Bay.

Finally, there are several other 2015 free agents who could gain value with a potential new location, but are not even as proven as Leshoure and Boykin. These players will have to perform in 2014 in order to prove worthy of a new contract as well as a spot on your dynasty roster. Among the players to monitor here are Ryan Mallett, Lance Dunbar, Chris Polk, Kendall Hunter, Jerrel Jernigan, Jeremy Kerley, Andre Holmes, Rod Streater and Jermaine Kearse.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.