2014 NFL Draft Blog: QB Analysis & Ranking

Okay all you fantasy ballers, it’s time to officially kick-off 2014!

Here at DLF, in fact, it’s difficult to tell when the “official” kick-off of any new season is because we’ve always believed that there is NO off-season!  For me, regardless of all the work that goes into projecting which would-be rookies will be leaving college early, analyzing the players, researching team needs or developing early tiering, the NFL Combine is where the rubber meets the road.  All the hype, intrigue  expectation plays out in a few short days as the rookies don their Under Armour underwear and hit the turf.  Plenty of debate and analysis will occur following the event but there’s nothing quite like seeing the players in the flesh.

Once again, we’re bringing you our live blog which will run from the Combine through the NFL Draft.  In this blog, I will be updating items of note, thoughts on the rookies, noteworthy news as well as my impressions of the players as they perform their drills.  In many cases, my entries will be made well after the drills as I review the tape to ensure accuracy.  In other cases, especially as the skill position drills unfold, I’ll be updating quite often.

Following the Combine, look for the discussion to turn to further analysis of team needs, discussion of impending free agents, veteran play movement and the rising/falling values of both rookies and established players. It is our hope that via this single blog, we’ll be able to keep you updated with the information that you need to know all with a single click.  The goal here is to have you completely ready for your rookie or inaugural dynasty league draft.  So check back early and often.

Let’s get started:

Mar. 19

Tonight we start down the rabbit-hole of each position, doing the dirty work, tape review and analysis that I do each year toward giving you an edge come draft day.  The Internet, especially in the fantasy space, is crawling with armchair and would-be scouts all jockeying for your attention with various articles, rookie guides and podcasts.  I don’t begrudge anyone willing to put in the work the opportunity to reach an audience but I’ll just throw out one word of caution to readers here: fish carefully from this ocean of individuals because the ability to publish Internet content in no way guarantees a level of due-diligence, knowledge, work or otherwise.

Any one of us can look at statistics, size and combine performance and give a fantasy ranking without a second of further research.  Vote carefully with your time and your dollars and be sure that your sources are putting in the work.  Find those that are willing to go against the grain and do individualized analysis, not simply parroting what has already been said or joining the bandwagon blindly.  All of us will be right and wrong many times over, but those that you can trust will emerge over time, year over year, with consistent analysis and performance.

What does “going against the grain” look like?  In recent years, opportunity after opportunity exists to rank with the grain, making these easy calls.  Following many hours of research, I (including others here at DLF) came out against such players as Trent Richardson calling him far less than elite.  While others were quick to anoint Delone Carter a rising star and sure-starter in Indi, I called him pedestrian and lacking any special ability. Ronnie Hillman was a popular fast-riser in drafts but we at DLF warned owners not to over-draft him.   In 2010, I spoke highly of Jimmy Graham.  Early last year, while most had forgotten of Julius Thomas, DLF was busy making sure our readers knew not to lose sight of him, based on what we knew about him in 2011 when he was drafted in the fourth round.  I was high on Marvin Jones, Rueben Randle and Greg Jennings based on film review first, size and statistics second.  At quarterback, most recently I suggested fantasy owners not to give up on Russell Wilson due to his size and said “don’t bet against him”.  Character and work ethic research uncovered just how much of a workaholic and football fanatic he was at Wisconsin.  Colin Kaepernick was one of my favorite quarterbacks to emerge over the past five years.  I strongly suggested steering clear of Jahvid Best due to the grades and significance of his concussions.   I’ve had my flops as well. Brandon Jackson and Donald Brown have never lived up to expectations.  Brown due to injury and Jackson due to injury combined with early career issues in protection schemes and poor play.  Jonathan Dwyer never emerged and Sidney Rice (one of my favorite players) simply couldn’t stay on the field.

There is nothing boastful here.  This isn’t about being right or wrong in the end as much as it is about doing the work and making sure our readers and subscribers get the best of what we have to offer.  You deserve nothing less.  You depend on us to give you a leg up on your competition and if we can’t point to the things that we do to earn your trust and give you that leg up, then we don’t deserve your money or your trust.   We do the work! Vote carefully with your time and dollars.

Let’s get to work on the quarterbacks:

The position is slipping in fantasy.  Not in the bigger picture as much as the top three names in 2014.  When the TV experts can’t agree on the order, it goes a long way to erode value in fantasy.  Where as earlier in the year, Teddy Bridgewater appeared to be a lock for a high fantasy selection, Johnny Manziel and Blake Bortles closed ground and even leap-frogged him in some cases on NFL boards.  In fantasy, that will manifest itself in a loss of value very quickly.  Without a clear Andrew Luck or RGIII on the board, we can expect 2014’s quarterbacks to slip to the end of the first round and potentially beyond.  But should they?  Let’s do some quick breakdown and end with my top five at the position.  The players are listed in no particular order as far as review goes.

Teddy Bridgewater

The tape doesn’t lie on Bridgewater.  When evaluating quarterbacks I look for an increasing completion percentage and TD:INT ratios to tell a story.  From tape, I focus on footwork, delivery, release point, snap, IQ, decision making and leadership/character.  These are just the primary areas where my research begins.  For Bridgewater, we’ve all heard about size concerns.  It’s now up to each of us to determine if that concern is worthy of a drop in value on fantasy draft day.

Stats, completion percentage and efficiency ratios all favor Bridgewater without question.  He easily passes the number tests.  When grading out Teddy in the area of mechanics and under-center in general, there’s a lot to like.  I say that in every sense of the word as my most recent film study on him left me even more impressed than my early 2013 reviews.   TB has everything you could want or desire in the area of leadership and character.  I couldn’t give greater marks in this area and note that he’s only 21 years of age.  His footwork and drops are fluid and float well beneath his hips.  It’s a fluid motion that allows for the creation of a stable throwing base, allowing him to get to the depth needed with the foundation to deliver the ball quickly.  His release point isn’t prototypical in my estimation and is more of a 7/8ths delivery if I can call it that.  He has the ability to drop down to a 3/4 delivery when called for, particularly on a roll to his right with a throw outside the hash.  He has small hands and does, on occasion, appear to fight the ball on release.  But in most cases, his release is clean and with enough drive to deliver the pass to the receiver’s hands quickly.  He doesn’t receive ultra-high marks in this area but he’s capable enough.  His release is quick and he’s more of a snap-thrower.

On the downside, I mentioned his hand size which sometimes seems to come into play.  Additionally, I’ve noted a fair number of passes being delivered on his back foot without a good weight-transfer.  This leads to throws that tend to float high and long in cases.  While this hasn’t affected his completion percentage, his snap motion is obviously leading to inaccurate longer throws when he’s not pulling his shoulders through the pass effectively.  Thankfully, this isn’t his standard delivery as noted previously.  He normally gets his base well under him with good shoulder alignment with footwork and delivery mechanics that allow him to complete passes effectively.  His mobility is better than I believe he’s being given credit for. He understands when to be mobile and is always looking to deliver the ball first before running, a key trait.  Most notably, I love how Bridgewater, even when on the move, has the ability to square to his target when throwing.  This provides optimum mechanics for being mobile and accurate.

In the area of football IQ and leadership, he gets high marks.  He has the ability to read defenses and this is obvious in game film.  He’s not as quick in his progression as was Andrew Luck but it’s obvious that, in many cases, Bridgewater has read the defense and knows where the ball is going to be delivered, cutting down on the need for longer progressions.  Working from under center in his offense as he has translates very well to the NFL.

Ultimately, I’ve seen enough to rate him highly as a passer.  The issue of weight and bulk loom large again.  Let me say one thing that should alleviate some concern.  Tom Brady, in 2000, was nearly two inches taller and weighed approximately 211 lbs.  He was rail thin and still was able to add weight.  Bridgewater’s base is thinner than is Brady’s and I don’t see a lot of opportunity to add much weight, but I have little doubt that he’ll be able to add 10-15 lbs. once the weight room becomes part of his routine.  At 220 – 225 lbs., we’re not having this same discussion.

Johnny Manziel

It’s easy to pick apart Manziel’s mechanics as they are all over the place and inconsistent.  When reviewing him for NFL and fantasy production, it’s simply a question about dynamic vs. the prototypical quarterback build. Manziel has dynamic in spades and has an unnatural ability in space, behind the line of scrimmage or in front of it.  He has natural field vision with the ball in his hands and elite running vision.  This same vision doesn’t consistently play out in his throws but it’s hard to argue his nearly 70% completion percentage.

He’s nervous in the pocket and, as said earlier, his mechanics across the board and inconsistent and jerky.  He’s an “instinct” passer and tends to feel the pocket and the throws that need to be made.  Everything with Manziel appears to be sudden and unplanned and in a NFL system, I have a hard time believing that success can follow such a style.  My biggest issue with Johnny Football is his arrogant and bigger-than-everyone demeanor.  This character style can ruin a young player if success doesn’t come quickly.  Manziel would tell of his leadership ability but it’s a fine line between leadership and bravado.  His words and mannerisms won’t inspire NFL players to reach new levels of performance and I’m not confident that he can exhibit the accountability that will be needed when cameras are rolling.

As I asked early on, it’s a fair question of “how much would we be talking about Manziel without the success of Russell Wilson?”.  I stand behind that question.  Manziel is a dynamic player with the ball in his hands and there’s little question that he could almost will his team to a win, much like Tim Tebow.  But unlike Russell Wilson, Johnny Manziel doesn’t possess the same work ethic or well-grounded confidence that I believe is needed for him to ultimately succeed to a high level in the NFL.  But then there’s always that dynamic ability that I just can’t get away from.  He’s hard to root against … as he is very easy to root against for many other reasons.

Blake Bortles

I’ll admit that after multiple tape sessions reviewing Bortles I expect to see a more polished passer than I did.  My belief was that due to his prototypical size, weight and traits that I had seen, Bortles was going to end up on the top of my quarterback board.  He will not.  This isn’t to say that he’s not worthy of consideration but he’s much more raw than I expected to find.

There’s no questioning that he has enough arm strength to make it in the NFL.  In fact, based on his motion and mechanics, I think it can get substantially better with the right coach.  Bortles footwork is a little mechanical and sloppy but he’s able to pull it through when the time comes to deliver the pass.  His release is odd and the ball comes out more quickly than it should given his wind-up and delivery.  He doesn’t have a hitch, but it’s not far from just as he begins to bring the ball up through his motion.  His release point is decent but his balance is often off without proper weight-shift.  This is most evident in the ball that he throws, which often flutters or is otherwise not pretty.

Bortles is more mobile than I originally gave him credit for.  He had many called runs at UCF but even on called pass plays, he has the ability to tuck the ball and gain meaningful yards when the timing is right.  He generally makes good decisions in this case.  Strangely enough, I like Bortles’ delivery and mechanics better when on the move.  His release, motion and release point all improve and he’s able to drive the ball with a nice spin. There’s enough to work with here.

In the end, Blake Bortles is as intriguing as they come for a prospect needing development.  His good size, strength and leadership skill are unquestioned and he’s got enough of what is needed to successful for a long time in the NFL with the right coach and system.  I don’t believe he’ll command a selection now at the top of the NFL draft to the Houston Texans, but I believe his ultimate development would fit their situation.  But for the 1.01, I’d want more polish and tangible traits as opposed to promise and potential.

Derek Carr

Much like I came away somewhat disappointed in Bortles, quite the opposite was true with Derek Carr.  Carr stands tall in the pocket and exhibits enough patience to deliver a good ball from a stable foundation.   While I’m not a fan of comparing every prospect with a NFL counterpart, I’ve heard the comparison of Tony Romo.  After watching tape sessions on Carr, it’s a fitting comparison.  His footwork is consistent enough and he holds a good position at the top of his drop.  He scans the field well and has perhaps the best release and ball in of the 2014 class.  The ball leaps from his hand and Carr has the ability to drive it well, delivering a capable deep pass with good velocity and arc, very catchable.  On the negative side, Carr operated from the shotgun formation almost exclusively and appears a little raw in his progression reads, even if he is patient enough to do so.

He has a quick release and wrist-snap that is the engine to the aforementioned delivery.  There’s a lot to like about his throws when he’s balanced and stable through his entire motion.  When his weight transfer appropriately shifts, his balls stay low and on a rope.  When not, they float high and long.  This is a typical issue with young passers that will be corrected at the next level.

His mobility is better than average and his statistics against a relatively soft schedule were impressive.  His size is underwhelming as is his 9 1/8″ hands.  He’s tenacious and confident with the ball in his hands and he isn’t afraid to take control.  As is the case with most quarterbacks that come from a system like Fresno State, his routes were shorter and less impressive, leaving him somewhat untested against a NFL route tree working from under-center.  He’s a somewhat raw prospect that will need to make a lot of IQ and system progress at the next level, but he’s starting from a foundation that should provide enough intrigue to take at the top of the second round … and could slip into the bottom of the first round.

Jimmy Garoppolo

Garoppolo is an interesting study case for me and I have to admit that I wasn’t overly familiar with his game or his characteristics.  After watching film, I’m as confused as I ever have been with a higher rated prospect. There’s enough to work with to make for an intriguing NFL quarterback prospect, but enough rawness to suggest nothing more than a deeper sleeper at the position.

On the positive side, his compact delivery gets the ball out quickly and with sufficient velocity.  His footwork is adequate to inconsistent but there’s enough to work with.  He throws a nice ball with significant touch to the corners and outside the hash.  He shows a level of maturity and intelligence with the ball in his hands.  He doesn’t force poor throws and is willing to take the incompletion rather than risk a turnover.  He exhibits great character and leadership skill and is the type of player that may only need a chance to prove himself.

He’s a little ‘flighty’ and ‘antsy’ in the pocket and doesn’t appear to be overly comfortable.  He tends to be erratic with many of his throws, leading to inconsistency in completion numbers.  While he’s able to make the impressive completion, dropping the ball into tight places or perfectly over-the-shoulder of his receiver, he’ll also miss an easier, shorter, throw without significant pressure upon him.  I don’t see enough on tape to project anything more than a back-up caliber player in the in the NFL but fit and situation will likely be a determining factor.  In his case, he’d benefit for at least a year or two holding a clipboard.

As I’m only ranking five quarterbacks here, there’s a chance that Garoppolo may fall to sixth in my ranking, in favor of AJ McCarron.  They both exhibit enough tangible ability to give a certain amount of promise while, at the same time, lacking that “it” factor that suggests anything more than a backup level player.  More to come on this.

With that, here are my updated (yet unchanged) rankings:

1. Teddy Bridgewater
2. Blake Bortles
3.  Johnny Manziel
4.  Derek Carr
5.  Jimmy Garoppolo

Mar. 10

Nothing destroys rookie value more than a poor situation.

I may be naive but I believe there’s even more hype for an approaching NFL rookie draft than there is kick-off of a new season.  Fantasy owners, dynasty owners more specifically, are nothing if not excited about new prospects, building a team and over-analysis of every off-season news tidbit.  I plead “guilty” myself.  I wouldn’t have it any other way.

With the rookie draft, as long as you’ve held your picks that is, it’s almost as good as Christmas.  We all get to select a ‘present’ to add to our teams that nearly assures us that our team will be taking home the ring “next year”, the final piece of the puzzle or the player that “puts me over the top”.  Use whatever cliche’ you wish, they all basically mean the same thing.  We’re excited about rookies and what they present.  The only problem with this mindset is that the hype is almost always overdone.  Rookies bust at an incredibly high rate, even in the first round.  Get beyond the first round and you’re looking at a, roughly, 15% hit rate on your shiny new toy. As it turns out, the odds don’t drop much as you enter the third round of fantasy rookie drafts.  Even first round selections bust something to the magnitude of 60%, depending on the year.

There’s one item that destroys rookie value more than any other item in the NFL draft – The draft itself.  Yes, it’s true.  Poor NFL teams pick near the top, better NFL teams with later picks in the first round, often add talent over need, dooming good names to poor fantasy situations.  A highly valued rookie receiver will, many times, see themselves staring up from the bottom of the depth chart.  True that all rookies do enter at the bottom of the depth chart in theory, but many are ordained starters from the moment they hear their name called due to team need.

What I want to focus on with this entry are the first round situations that we, excitable dynasty owners as we are, don’t want to see/hear come draft day.  For this update, I’m going to ask you to review the highlighted players from March 9th below.  We’ll cross reference some of those players with the draft order:

1.  Texans
2.  Rams
3.  Jaguars
4.  Browns
5.  Raiders
6.  Falcons
7.  Buccaneers
8.  Vikings
9.  Bills
10.  Lions
11.  Titans
12.  Giants
13.  Rams
14.  Bears
15.  Steelers
16.  Cowboys
17.  Ravens
18.  Jets
19.  Dolphins
20.  Cardinals
21.  Packers
22.  Eagles
23.  Chiefs
24.  Bengals
25.  Chargers
26.  Browns
27.  Saints
28.  Panthers
29.  Patriots
30.  49ers
31.  Broncos
32.  Seahawks

Texans – Holding 1.01, there’s a nucleus in Houston that, despite owning the first pick in the NFL draft, presents enough to be excited about.  Arian Foster is still in town and Ben Tate will likely depart to a better starting situation.  Andre Johnson, when combined with last year’s rookie receiver DeAndre Hopkins provides a foundation for offensive production.  The only piece missing is a franchise quarterback.  Veteran Matt Schaub may or may not return but I consider it unlikely.  Case Keenum showed a spark but couldn’t muster a victory under-center.  The mystery of this year’s NFL draft begins with Houston’s selection at 1.01.  Will they select the talented defensive end in Clowney, or select a new face of the franchise?  I’ve gone back and forth on this selection and this week I’m in the camp that they MUST select a quarterback.  I’d love nothing more to see Keenum given a chance with an entire off-season of preparation to be the starter but when picking first overall, you need to draft need – the Texans badly need a quarterback.  I think Blake Bortles will be the guy.  I still have Bridgewater higher on my board, but Bortles is the prototypical passer in this year’s class.  I don’t see the Texans risking any of the other names.  It will be Bortles or Clowney.  In either case, this is a good situation for a rookie.  Nothing to fear here.

Jaguars – At 1.03 Jacksonville, too, has a decision to make.  Word is that the Jags will be passing on quarterback but I’ll believe that when I see it.  They have inked Henne for another two years and are said to be considering taking a quarterback with their second choice, but I believe that Bridgewater will likely be selected with their first selection, unless his size (weight) scares them away.  If Clowney remains on the board for some reason, I expect the Jags to bite.  But like Houston, this situation doesn’t frighten me for quarterback prospects and receiver is not an area of immediate need, at least in the first round.

Browns –  With 1.04, the question for the Brownies is whether they select standout receiver Sammy Watkins, or one of the top three quarterbacks.  Fit of Manziel will be questioned until draft day and their pick is revealed.  I believe that should Bortles and Bridgewater both be taken prior to this pick, that Cleveland will pass on quarterback and select Watkins.  In either case, however, the Browns have a lot to offer a quarterback and a selection of Watkins, starting across from Josh Gordon, is enough to be excited about even without a big name at quarterback.

Raiders – At 1.05, Oakland has needs similar to the Browns.  There is little way that Watkins will get past Oakland.  The only question is whether or not Watkins remains on the board when the Raiders are on the clock.  In all likelihood, I expect the decision to come down to Manziel or Watkins, with Manziel as the name remaining on the board.  And this leads us to our first poor situation.  Manziel’s stock is already sliding a bit due to tape review by some big NFL scouts and talent reviewers.  But Manziel is the most dynamic name of this year’s quarterback group and tell me you can’t see him in the silver and black, it’s a perfect fit.  But for fantasy production, Oakland truly is the black hole, especially at quarterback.  The Raiders badly need to improve on offense across the board.  Rashad Jennings should be resigned at running back but the cupboard isn’t stocked with leading names at receiver.  There’s potential, but not the type of talent needed to help Manziel early.  And if there’s one name that you don’t want to be frustrated early in his NFL career, it’s Johnny Manziel.

Vikings – There’s a chance that the third quarterback goes off the board with the the Vikings’ 1.08 selection, but if that’s the case, I don’t believe it will be the Vikings that make the selection.  The Vikings have many needs but look for them to trot Ponder and Cassel out one more year as they attempt to continue the rebuild.  This isn’t a horrible situation for a passer if the Vikings do select a quarterback as the offense still sports Adrian Peterson, Kyle Rudolph and dynamic 2013 rookie, Cordarrelle Patterson.

Bills – At 1.09, fantasy fans should be holding their collective breath when the Bills are on the clock.  With receiver still a need, Mike Evans will get a long look.  I’ve called Buffalo “where quarterbacks and receivers go to die” many times in the past.  I had high hopes for Robert Woods as a rookie but didn’t think he was dynamic enough to rise above the legacy of the Bills.  Sure, there has been Stevie Johnson and even Peerless Price for one year (2002), but until otherwise proven, it’s a dead zone.  I will downgrade any receiver (or quarterback) playing in Buffalo.  Sorry Bills’ fans, I do find myself rooting for them to return to glory.  That all said, Evans is the only skill player that I have mocked to the Bills with this selection.  Should Evans find his way to northern New York, I could foresee him falling from the fantasy 1.02 selection that seems locked in at this point.

Ravens – As much as I’d like to say otherwise, the Ravens selecting at 1.17  scares me, especially considering their receiver needs.  Arguably Baltimore needs help at linebacker more than at receiver, but there’s a dynamic missing in the passing game that cannot go unaddressed again.  Interesting that I say this when the Ravens finished twelfth overall in passing yardage.  Highly paid Joe Flacco threw 22 interceptions to 19 touchdowns in 2013 and needs better targets.  Look for them to add a slot receiver type that can challenge the width of the field on crossing routes.  First names that come to mind are Brandin Cooks and Odell Beckham.  Bigger receivers such as Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin will still be on the board as well and would provide a bigger dynamic that has been missing as well.  Veteran receiver Torrey Smith can still stretch the field with the best of them and would get a bump in quality receptions with a notable underneath threat.  But for a rookie, this is not a situation that bodes well for fantasy production.

Jets – 1.18.  I will go on record here and defend my position vehemently.  I will NOT select any fantasy player drafted by the Jets in 2014.  They are a fantasy wasteland and until I see tangible signs of life, I will not throw away a pick in this way.  They must sign a receiver in free agency and there’s little chance that they don’t also select one in the first round.  Say a prayer for Marqise Lee because it sure seems to fit.  Nothing more needs to be said about this situation.

So, this highlights four draft situations that we do not want to see come draft day. With free agency due to begin tomorrow (or today depending on when you read this), fantasy owners can hope  that these teams fill these needs from the players currently available. If not, early first round selections may lose significant value following day one of the draft.

Mar. 9

Free agency is nearly upon us.  Things are going to be quite interesting this year as we track the prospects of the likes of Hakeem Nicks, Eric Decker, James Jones, Ben Tate and even role players such as Donald Brown, Golden Tate and Darren McFadden.  Heck, I even have interest in Toby Gerhart, a back whom I feel is more capable than his statistics to date.  But until FA opens, let’s keep our focus on the rookies.  Below is my new top five rookie ranking within the big three positions:

Quarterbacks

Bridgewater and Bortles remain neck and neck as does my number five choice, Jimmy Garoppolo with Zach Mettenberger, just missing the list.  I need to watch more tape on Bortles and Bridgewater, but for different reasons. I’ll update you should anything change.

1. Teddy Bridgewater
2. Blake Bortles
3.  Johnny Manziel
4.  Derek Carr
5.  Jimmy Garoppolo

Running Backs

We have a change at the top.  Sankeyy takes over for Hyde based on versatility and production.  I now believe that Sankeyy is likely to go in the top six picks in fantasy rookie drafts.  Situation will be important but I don’t think fantasy ballers with a need at the position will be able to lay off Sankeyy (or Hyde) if they go to a good situation, even if their talent isn’t on par with the receivers.  The next fight is between Hill and the back that just missed the list, Charles Sims.  They, too, are neck and neck and could easily flip-flop after I watch more tape.  Key to this will be Hill’s on-tape speed.  His 4.66 40 was slower than I was hoping for  and his off-field issues are well known.  He has huge (10 3/8″) hands but can catch.  Sims, however, is a more natural receiver and pulled in 45 receptions in 2013.

1.  Bishop Sankeyy
2.  Carlos Hyde
3.  Lache Seastrunk
4.  Tre Mason
5.  Jeremy Hill

Wide Receivers

Okay, you talked me into it.  Because of the depth of the class, I’m going to expand my top five into a top ten.  This group is all about the selection at 1.03 in your draft, which is likely to be another receiver following Watkins and Evans.  Will Marquis Lee starting gaining ground?  Will Brandin Cooks lose any ground after a great combine?  What about the underrated Jordan Matthews?  Kelvin Benjamin has huge upside but fell into the second round in a recent mock draft I participated in.  This receiver class has it all for just about any taste.  I’m impressed by the size of the group as well.  What have they been feeding these kids?

1. Sammy Watkins
2. Mike Evans
3. Brandin Cooks
4. Marquis Lee
5. Jordan Matthews
6. Kelvin Benjamin
7. Davante Adams
8. Odell Beckham
9. Donte Moncrief
10. Allen Robinson

Looking at these receivers again, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will be the performers out of this class in three years.   History tells us that more than half of these players will bust, more than that for those that are drafted in the second round or greater in the NFL draft.  I don’t have a great feeling for Lee and Beckham and think that many may be too high on both.  Davante Adams is a freak that has done nothing but stack production.  But he’s very raw.  Jordan Matthews reminds me a lot of Justin Hunter in style of play.  If your recall, I felt that Hunter could have the highest upside of any rookie receiver from 2013.  Benjamin is an enigma but from what I’ve seen, too many are selling him short.  He’s huge and I still believe that he could be a tight end/receiver hybrid, similar to Timothy Wright in Tampa Bay.

I’m in the process of going down the rabbit hole on all of these receivers and will be updating you all shortly.  If you’re wondering about the tight ends … It’s still all about Ebron and Amaro.  Niklas and ASJ just don’t excite me.

Mar. 5, 7:00 PM

One quick item of note before I get to my main entry.  I’m in the middle of a rookie mock draft and as luck would have it, I ended up with 1.03.  The reason I say “as luck would have it” is because this is the pick where anything goes.  1.03 this year is as good as 1.07 or 1.08 in all reality with names such as Cooks, Lee, Benjamin, Matthews, Seastrunk, Hyde, Bortles and Bridgewater in the mix.  Fantasy quarterbacks nearly always fall in drafts so you can likely take them out of the mix.  All that said, I just selected Brandin Cooks.  He’s much smaller than I would normally take with a pick such as 1.03, but the more I watch his tape, the more I’m intrigued. And he’s as high a character as you’ll find, a very good mix.

Onto my topic of the night, free agency players of note.  Good coaches can take advantage of those that haven’t done their homework, especially in the area of players about to change teams.  Whether you have a troubled player like Kenny Britt about to get a change of scenery, James Jones who could be a legitimate WR2 on a new team or Ben Tate who is likely to land a good shot at a starting role, timely trades of intriguing free agents can pay off if you’re willing to take the risk(s).

Let’s look at a few of the players I’m tracking:

Arizona Cardinals

Rashard Mendenhall – Talking retirement and his best days are behind him.
Andre Roberts – Likely a WR3 at best, he’ll get upgraded if he goes to the Patriots, Lions or the Chiefs.

Baltimore Ravens

Ed Dickson – Not expecting much here, but I’m watching.  Bigger upgrade for Dennis Pitta.

Cleveland Browns

D’Qwell Jackson – IDP’ers should stay tuned.  My money is on Miami with Denver as a close #2.

Denver Broncos

Knowshon Moreno – His value won’t be as high as it is/was in Denver, but he’s a top FA in 2014. Can he carry the load?  Watch Tennessee and Cleveland.
Eric Decker – A top free agent himself and like Moreno, won’t carry the value he did in Denver. Would be a great fit in Detroit or New England.

Detroit Lions

Brandon Pettigrew – I expect the Lions to ultimately resign Pettigrew but it’s 60/40 in my book.  If he signs in Atlanta, his value could rise.

Green Bay Packers

James Starks – Has shown the ability to start and bring a punch and he finally was healthy.  Best as a complement back however and would fit well in Arizona.
James Jones – The hot and cold Jones is likely to find a new home.  I think he fits well in Detroit, Cleveland or Kansas City where there is an established WR1.
Jermichael Finley – I’m still high on Finley and buying every chance I get.  Would love to see him in Seattle, Arizona or, especially, Atlanta.

Houston Texas

Ben Tate – He’s going to get a chance to start.  Texans can’t afford to keep him.  Cleveland, Arizona and fear Cleveland and New York Jets.

Indianapolis Colts

Donald Brown – I’m watching Brown with great interest.  I think he’ll resign in Indi as Richardson can’t be trusted.  Brown has starting talent IF he can remain healthy.  Big IF.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Maurice Jones-Drew – He’s got maybe one year left and I’m not interested for any reason outside of curiosity and the opportunity to buy on the very cheap, if offered.

Minnesota Vikings

Josh Freeman – I still think Freeman can play the position and will get another starting opportunity.  I’m not against a chance in Cleveland or Houston, but the draft should end that hope.
Toby Gerhart – I’ve read that many believe he’s got RB1 capability.  I don’t see it unless it’s in a substantially equal time share role.  I’m not buying unless for a handcuff
Jerome Simpson – No, never … not again.

Oakland Raiders

Rashad Jennings – He’ll be retained and should be the starter.  When he falls to injury, watch Latavius Murray and Jeremy Stewart.  Money is on Murray for the longer term>
Darren McFadden – Owners that held onto him will be penalized, but not persecuted.  So much talent, such a long injury record.

Philadelphia Eagles

Michael Vick – Too many opportunities around for him not to land a starting gig.  My money is on the Jets over the Raiders.  Not on my radar in either case.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Jonathan Dwyer – I had high hopes.  He’s had his chance and flopped.  He’s still listed at 229 and he hasn’t been that weight since he was 16.  That’s the issue.
Jerricho Cotchery – Steelers should resign him and, if they do, he’s one of those low value players that can come up big out of your WR4 hole.
Emmanuel Sanders – Put me down for the Jets as his eventual landing spot, which would be perfect because I want nothing to do with the J-E-T-S in fantasy.

Seattle Seahawks

Sidney Rice – He’s on his way out of the Emerald City with his ring.  He’s always been one of my favorite players but he’s been a fantasy zero due to injury
Golden Tate – I’m not a big fan of his game due to inconsistency.  My belief is that he’ll stay in Seattle but he’s got upside in the right offense.

Tennessee Titans

Kenny Britt – He’s at the age cut off for me where if he doesn’t clean up his act, I’ll label him a chronic.  But, believe it or not, I’m buying low where I can.

Washington Redskins

Fred Davis – Insert picture of atomic bomb mushroom cloud here. 

Feb. 27, 12:00 PM

Ok, took some time to let the dust settle on the Combine, take a look around and survey the field.  Also spent a lot of time looking at the lay of this draft, the picks that the teams have and then cross referencing all the information into fantasy information that we can use.  Firstly, let me give you my first top 20 from the Combine.  It’s still VERY early and this is sure to change as I watch more film, break down the tape and the players and then really get down the rabbit hole.

#    Name    POS
1    Sammy Watkins    WR
2    Mike Evans    WR
3    Kelvin Benjamin    WR
4    Brandin Cooks   WR
5    Teddy Bridgewater    QB
6    Marqise Lee    WR
7    Blake Bortles    QB
8    Eric Ebron    TE
9    Carlos Hyde    RB
10    Lache Seastrunk    RB
11    Bishop Sankeyy    RB
12    Johnny Manziel    QB
13    Jordan Matthews    WR
14    Tre Mason    RB
15    Odell Beckham    WR
16    Jace Amaro    TE
17    Ka’Deem Carey    RB
18    Jeremy Hill    RB
19    Charles Sims    RB
20    Storm Johnson    RB

Let’s talk about this a bit.

This is an interesting draft, especially for those of you in PPR systems.  As I’ve said all along, this is also the draft to be very comfortable in the bottom half of the first round.  Why you might ask?  Because the receivers are stacked at the front end, heavily.  There’s a lot of talent, even if not elite, at the receiver position.  This is important because the running backs are decidedly weak and mysterious.

In most all drafts, draft picks lose value after the NFL draft.  This is due to good talent going to questionable situations.  I’ll discuss some of those situations shortly.  Running backs are still the primary draw in the top end of fantasy drafts.  In a class with weak backs, you can still expect that a few of the backs are going to go to noteworthy (potential starting) situations.  Many fantasy coaches cannot withstand the need/urge to take a starting-opportunity back, regardless of talent level.  I fully expect this to be the case with such backs like Mason, Carey, Sankeyy, etc.  This is not to say that they do not have talent and could be productive fantasy players.  But a selection of these second and third tier players will push down the better talented receivers and quarterbacks.  If you have a need at either WR or QB, this is your draft to sit in the second half of the first round, or even acquire another pick in that area.

Let’s talk about my list just a bit.  These rankings are very early and will change drastically.  I’m already seeing Benjamin starting to slide the more I review.  Sankeyy, Seastrunk, Sims, Hill and Beckham could move up significantly.  Hyde, Lee and Ebron may be falling.

We’ve got some intriguing draftable situations out there to consider, both good and bad.

Houston Texans (1.01):  All eyes will remain on the Texans as they struggle with the decision between a selection of Clowney or the need at quarterback.  Given the depth of the quarterback class, I expect that Texans to pass on quarterback in round one and, instead, address the need at the top of the second round.  Enough options exist to provide upside at the position in the second round and Case Keenum remains in the picture as a possibility at least for competition.  The Texans’ selection will dictate much of what follows in the draft and this year looks primed for a whirlwind of action on the trade front.

Cleveland Browns (1.04, 1.26):  Cleveland fans, dare I say that I believe you may be on the verge of being extremely viable.  I’d love to see them step up to select Watkins or Cooks, passing on a quarterback in the first.  They do need a face of the franchise but a selection of one of these two players will open up that offense in a big way.  50/50 chance.  I like Bridgewater as the best fit if they do go quarterback.

Oakland Raiders (1.05): It’s no secret that the Raiders need both a franchise quarterback and a receiver.  While popularly mocked Sammy Watkins with their fifth pick, my belief is that the Raiders will look for their face of the franchise.  It’s been too long since they’ve had a viable signal caller and the depth of the receiver position in 2014, provides a good opportunity to address the quarterback need early and address the receiver need in the second round.  Should Watkins remain on the board  at 1.05, will Oakland be able to withstand the allure?  Again, it’s a 50/50 proposition.  Either way, any fantasy player taken by the Raiders will lose near-term value.

Buffalo (1.09):  The Bills are once again receiver and tight end needy.  And much like the Jets and Baltimore, Buffalo is not a scheme or team that I trust in the offensive skill position area.  A selection of Ebron or Mike Evans is a frustrating situation for fantasy owners.

Detroit Lions (1.10):  The Lions are expected to address the receiver position early.  Across from Megatron, there’s plenty of opportunity for fantasy relevance by a young receiver, especially considering the wide open competition that will be waged for the WR2.  Look for the Lions to target one in the first round.

Baltimore Ravens (1.17):  Similar to the Jets, I have issues with the Baltimore scheme relating to receivers.  I will not be highly valuing any receiver in their system.  Torrey Smith is still productive and Dennis Pitta has a chance to be good, but the WR2/WR3 just doesn’t have significant fantasy relevance until they prove otherwise.

New York Jets (1.18): They’ll be looking for TE/WR early.  I will devalue any player that goes to this situation.  I don’t have enough faith in the offensive scheme, quarterback or history to value this situation any other way.  Should the Jets draft Ebron, he’ll drop precipitously on my list.  Same goes for any receiver that they select.  The Jets are clearly in a “show me” mode before I value their situations differently.

San Francisco 49’ers (1.30):  I’m looking forward to see what the 49’ers do in the draft and no one will be surprised if a receiver is chosen.  I like the prospects of the WR2 in SF.  The mobile Kaepernick, when combined with the field stretching ability of Vernon Davis and a healthy Michael Crabtree provides enough allure for me to be excited about.  That’s not to say that I think they’ll be a high producer in year one, but the potential is there in a way that is intriguing.

Seattle (1.32): Look for the Hawks to address the tight end and receiver situation, especially considering the likelihood that Golden Tate will not be back.  A selection of Jace Amaro or Eric Ebron (if he were to fall) would be an intriguing situation.  A receiver to replace Tate or the released Sidney Rice is something fantasy leaguers should watch.  Jordan Matthews would fit well in the Emerald City.

Feb. 24, 7:30 PM

I am busily building my rookie rankings after completion of the Combine, at least for the skills position.  The Twittersphere was rocking withe the trending Jadeveon Clowney who ran an official 4.53 40 at 6’5″/266 lbs. with a ridiculous 83″ wingspan.  The leverage and space that he’ll be able to create on first contact will be problematic for anyone lining up against him.  Houston HAS to be considering a selection of Clowney to pair with Watt.  Can he keep his head on straight?  He seems to be reading a lot of his own press clippings.  IDP’ers will be all over Clowney on draft day.

Some may notice a couple of omissions in my rankings when I release my first set.  Names like Devonta Freeman, Andre Williams, James Wilder Jr., etc.  If I didn’t see them at the Combine and haven’t watched enough on tape, I will reserve judgment until I see more.  There’s plenty of time folks.

A quarterback that I’ll be doing a lot more work on is Logan Thomas.  He ran a very nice 4.61 official 40 and has a combination of huge size and a huge arm.  There’s no telling where a ball will land when it leaves his hands, but he’s got much of what cannot be taught.  If coaches can refine his footwork, mechanics and decision making, they’ll have a very nice upside project on their hands.   He absolutely killed the Combine.  He’s got nearly 11″ hands but fumbled 23 times, to go with nearly 40 interceptions.  He’s obviously relying on his arm strength which will need to be corrected.  A lot of work ahead of him but I think he’ll be a great later round stash

My top 20 dynasty rookie countdown has begun on Twitter so be sure you’re following me.  Once it concludes, I’ll be posting it here as well.

Feb. 23, 8:00 PM

Running Backs

Overall, I was mostly disappointed with what I saw from this year’s running back class.  I think there’s ability there but nothing that I’d be hot for in the top half of fantasy league drafts.  Dri Archer flew in the 40 but you can’t draft him with any fantasy expectation.  He’s likely a third round selection in fantasy and a complete wild card.

I was disappointed across the board with Ka’Deem Carey and to a lesser degree, Tre Mason.  Carlos Hyde exited early with a hammy but he’s just not dynamic enough for my fantasy taste.  A few backs really helped themselves today that I’ll hightight in a bit with my risers and fallers.  But again, there’s just not enough here to sell the farm for, but plenty of good backs that should go in fantasy picks 8-15.  If you’re sitting with picks in that range, hope that some of these backs go off earlier and that the receivers fall.  If they don’t, take one of these backs knowing that any one of eight to ten of these guys could end up the best back from this draft.

I was going to write a bit more about this class but I’ll reserve much of what I had to say until after I watch more tape.  But I’ll give a quick run down in the next section here as I summarize my thoughts from the Combine below, noting risers and fallers.

Summary

For the quarterbacks, I think most have maintained their value and the top three are the top three.  With most of the big names doing very little, just not a lot to summarize.

At the running back position, the group is getting larger with a huge second (at best) tier.  In fact, dare I say that most of the backs may be third tier from what I like to see, but I’ll give them second tier status because I’m feeling generous tonight.  Let’s summarize:

Risers

Tyler Gaffney – Smaller hands but I love his size of 5’11″/220 lbs.  I liked his fluid movement and his hip swivel was better than I expected.  This is a key trait to me and he helped himself in this area.  His 4.49 forty didn’t hurt as well.  He’s a risky addition but so goes this running back class

Storm Johnson – Again, like Gaffney, his hips were looser than I expected given his scouting report.  Feet were relatively quick as well and he’s got good size.  He’s a really nice zone scheme runner that will need the right system to produce, but he had a nice showing today.

Lache Seastrunk – The book on him is that he’s not a great receiver and he can’t run well through the line of scrimmage, choosing instead to bounce most runs outside.  Aside from that, he’s a thick 201 lbs., ran a 4.51 40 and jumped out of the building with a 41.5″ vert and a 134″ broad jump.  He’s ultra-athletic and he’ll be a boom or bust selection in the bottom of the first round in fantasy.

Bishop Sankeyy – He surpassed my expectations in the forty (4.49) and his strength (26 reps).  He also caught the bell naturally and he’s a back that similar to recent Husky Chris Polk that could be productive as a runner and a receiver, but without the medical flag.

Fallers

Ka’Deem Carey – Just didn’t have a good showing today.  I really thought he had a chance to give Hyde a run for the first back off the board honors, but he’ll slip following today’s effort.  A poor 4.70 forty and weak 32.5″ vert and he looked stiff and a bit clumsy in cone-agility running.  I was disappointed.

Tre Mason – He held his value pretty well, but I still found myself wanting more from Mason.  His vert of 38.5″ was fine as was his 4.50 forty, but he just didn’t show me anything that led me to believe that he’s going to produce at a high level in the NFL.  He’s intriguing to me but I’d prefer to allow a fellow coach to make the selection unless he falls into the mid second round.

For the receivers, the group really lit it up today and much like the running backs, added a few more players into an already crowded second tier.  Sammy Watkins is alone in the first tier and there are a fair number of second tier receivers with ability, not to mention a healthy group of third tier receivers that are very close in skill/ability as displayed today.

The main names held their value, primarily Watkins, Evans, Benjamin and Lee.

Let’s summarize this group a bit:

Risers

Odell Beckham – 5’11″/198 lbs. with 10″ hands that displayed VERY well.  He snatched the ball with ease and showed ease in reversing his hands in receiving drills.  His 4.43 speed was about as expected but his agility stood out in both cone drills.  He needs to add strength badly and will need time to develop in the right NFL system to ever meet his potential, but he got off to a great start today.

Brandin Cooks – He may have risen the most on my board today.  He really stood out in all drills and looked the part of a play-making slot receiver+.  He’s got bigger (9 5/8″) hands than would be expected for his 5’10″/189 lbs. size and he absolutely ripped the 20 yd. shuttle (3.81) and the 60 yd. shuttle (10.72).  Best of all, his 4.33 40 was fluid and looked faster.  I think he’s worked his way into the first round for a team like the Chiefs, Browns, Saints or the Panthers.  The Browns are an intriguing target for Cooks as he will play very differently than that of Gordon on the outside and provide a new dimension that they never realized with troubled slot receiver Davone Bess.  Cooks may very well be a top seven selection now in fantasy drafts.  Recall thought that Tavon Austin possesses much the same type of dynamic and has yet to make a significant impact in fantasy.  But it’s only been one year for Austin.

Martavis Bryant – Didn’t light up any one area but his 4.42 speed with his listed 6’4″/211 lbs. size stood out.  He looked fluid, athletic and capable.  Each year I look for those players that have an “it” factor about their game and I’m most at ease and successful at locating it with the receivers.  This year Bryant and Fresno’s Davante Adams seem to be catching my eye (beyond Sammy Watkins of course).  Adams didn’t help or hurt himself today and he’s still on my “it” list.

Donte’ Moncrief – NFL Network avoided him like the plague for whatever reason but he ran a fantastic 4.40 40 and notched a 39.5 vert jump.  He needs to add strength and is very raw, but with upside.

Jeff Janis – at 6’3″/219 Lbs., Janis looks like the second coming of Eric Decker.  His hand size of 9″ could be an issue but they didn’t cause any issues in any of the drills and his 6.64 3-cone drill was impressive.  He’s agile for a big man.  He’s a division II player so he’s yet to be tested, but his measurables leap off the page.  That said, I would have liked to have seen him leap a bit more than his recorded 37.5″ vert.  He’ll be a nice third round selection for fantasy coaches that maintain awareness.

Fallers

Jarvis Landry – Mike Mayock is high on Landry and I wanted to see much, much more from him.  He was disappointing all the way through.

Allen Robinson – Aside from his 127″ broad jump, he did little to catch my eye.  He plays better on tape than he showed today so I’ll need to revisit his film.

Robert Herron – Needed to have big day to maintain some of his momentum coming into today and he largely disappointed.

That’s a wrap for much of the Combine coverage.  Now the fun part begins and I know what you fantasy ballers want …. RANKINGS!.  In my next update, I’ll be assembling my first top 20 list based off of my early film review and much of what I saw this weekend.  It’s a VERY early listing and I will ask you for patience and temperance if ‘your’ guy isn’t where you think he needs to be.  Heck, if that’s the case, you should praise me for not highlighting him and allowing you to select him with a lower pick.

This draft is going to be VERY interesting, especially for those of your in PPR formats.  This is very much a PPR rookie draft that we’re about to have with a few levels of intrigue and potential.

Feb. 23, 10:00 AM

Some further thoughts:

Watching Bortles throw, he’s as good as advertised.  He’s drives the ball well.  I saw a football IQ session on him as well and he’s engaging.  He’s rising on my board but I don’t think he’ll be taking over the QB1 ranking on my board, which is currently held by Teddy Bridgewater.

I still think Tajh Boyd is an intriguing quarterback that you’ll be able to get later in your third round, perhaps even fourth round.  He’s only 6’1″/222 lbs. but he has a big arm with an interesting throwing style.  More of a mid-arm slinger or flicker.  Good mobility but erratic on many throws, likely due to throwing mechanics.  But I like Boyd and I’ll be watching a lot more tape on him.

Following up on my “bulk” comment earlier on Wisconsin’s Jared Abbrederis, he could only muster four reps of the 225 lb. press.  Not overly critical for initial draft status, but he”ll need to improve that at the next level.

I was intrigued by Nebraska’s Qunicy Enunwa before he pulled up lame with a left hammy pull.  He’s got good size at 6’2″/225 lbs. with 9 1/2″ hands.  His hands are inconsistent but he’s got upside.

Brandin Cooks is really having a nice Combine and he’s going to go to a good team if he goes in the first round.

Running backs up soon …

Feb. 23, 8:30 AM

Excited to see the receivers this year.  This is an incredibly deep group that will offer fantasy a lot of intriguing options.  Outside of Sammy Watkins, I can’t say I’d be all in on any of the receivers to the point I’d be trading up, but that’s because the group is deep enough to be excited regardless of where you are in your first round if you are needy at receiver.  We’re not going to see much from the quarterbacks unfortunately but I don’t put much stock in the Combine for this position.  Sure, it’s nice to see them throw well and run a fast 40, but for the top names, I can see what I need to in tape review.  For the second and third tier slingers, I do like to see them drive the ball on out routes, throwing mechanics and their drop-footwork, but without pressure and in game situations, much of this can change.

From this point forward I will be marking unofficial times with a (u) or “u” following the time.

Quarterbacks

We did get to see Manziel and Bortles run.  Manziel clocked a pair of 4.5s in both forties, unofficially.  Bortles was a bit quicker than expected at 4.81 unofficially.  Either way, we already know what they possess.  Derek Carr ran a 4.65 unofficially.

Wide Receivers

As i said, I was really looking forward to seeing this group.  More than any year that I can recall without referring to my notes, this group has just about anything a fantasy coach could want, especially in the area of size/speed dynamic.  We’ve had classes of big receivers and classes with smaller receivers, but this group contains a second tier that is big, fast and deep.  Even at the smaller end of the scale, there are intriguing names. There are literally a dozen receivers here that could end up being worthy of the 1.02 pick after a selection of Sammy Watkins.

Jared Abbrederis looks legit and he’s not going to go in your fantasy first round.  He just ran a 4.44 (u).  He’s put up good numbers against very good defensive backs.  His hands are big enough at 9 5/8 and his speed looks good.  Would like to see him add some bulk for the next level.

Davante Adams at 6’1″/212 ran a 4.50 (u), good enough to be intriguing.  Small hands at 9″ but this hasn’t been an issue for him as of yet.

Odell Beckham ran a pair of forties in the 4.30s.  Measuring in better than expected at 5’11″/198, he’s going to be another intriguing selection in your second round.  Hoping he can go to a good situation.  He’s a solid prospect now and those that questioned his speed have been proven wrong.

The huge Kelvin Benjamin, with his 10 1/4″ hands ran well, clocking a 4.53 (u) 40 time.  He caught the ball well but  I would have liked to have seen greater acceleration in the gauntlet down-line.  The biggest question mark for Benjamin was his straight line speed and his 4.53 time is plenty good enough to stay in top five consideration in fantasy.  Remember that Larry Fitzgerald ran a 4.63 40 time.

Brandin Cooks is rising on draft boards, as well he should.  Cooks, who plays in our backyard up here in the Pacific NW is a very high character kid who is impossible not to like.  At nearly 5’10” and 190 lbs., he’s going to be a slot receiver specialist at the next level without much doubt.  Highly productive for the Beavers, Cooks is as dynamic as they come and should remind many of a slightly larger Tavon Austin, be that good or bad.   I liked how he ran his gauntlet drill with max down-line speed.  He snatched the ball adequately, struggling with the last two in his first run, but catching everything in the second.  But a 4.30 40 is where his bread will be buttered.  I expect he’ll slip into the bottom of the first round in the NFL draft.

Jumping to Mike Evans, who most have as the fantasy 1.02 currently, he ran a 4.47 (u) time which is much better than expected in my book.  He’ll be a solid prospect in the first two or three picks in fantasy.  His gauntlet drill showed good hands but inadequate speed.  Evans’ speed dynamic has always been an issue but  at 6’5″/231 lbs., speed isn’t where he’ll make his money in the NFL.  He’s a bit stiff and a one-speed player but he’ll be a monster target on the outside.

I thought Martavis Bryant looked good today.  Great size at 6’4″ with adequate bulk.  He ran a surprising 4.34 (u) 40 and I’ll be watching more tape on him.

More to come shortly….

Feb. 22, 12:00 PM

A couple of updates on the times.  Official times of most 40 times have been lowered by .10.  Ebron’s time was lowered to a 4.60.  Amaro to a 4.74.  A.C. Leonard to 4.50.

In route drills,  Amaro looked tight and clumsy almost across the board.  Given his slower 40 time, he hasn’t helped himself much today.  Eric Ebron pulled out after his 40 time and was seen icing his right leg.  That’s a disappointment.  I wanted to see those big hands at work.  He’s got a big catch radius and plus speed, would have liked to see him work it today.

Jacob Pedersen from Wisconsin caught my eye today.  His underwhelming 4.89 forty time won’t help his situation but I’ve seen enough that I want to watch more film on him.  Troy Niklas looked adept catching the ball but doesn’t seem to be possess a lot of dynamic.  More tape review needed here too.

Given what is known, I won’t be surprised to see Ebron end up being the only first round selection now.  Amaro just didn’t look good and it could cost him.  Overall, it was largely an underwhelming performance by the group today.  Ebron has the speed and size dynamic to be a middle first round selection and there’s a lot of need at the position this year.  Fantasy selection will depend on drafted team and situation.  Tight ends typically fall to the second round in fantasy drafts but Ebron may be in play at the bottom of the first.

Feb. 22, 11:00 AM

The first set of tight ends has hit the field.  And the first grouping contains our top two players at the position.

Looks like Eric Ebron is a true 4.50 40 runner, running 4.50 on both attempts.  Unofficially.  His speed is a bit underwhelming given the hype he put on himself, but he’s tough not to like and his speed is still very good. Very impressive 10″ hands and he should put on a display in receiving drills.

Jace Amaro is a mid 4.60 runner and looks the part of a proto-typical tight end.  His speed is about what I expected and is good enough to secure his position in the bottom of the first round.  Kudos on his 28 reps on the 225 bench press.  Hands are only 9″.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins isn’t running.  A disappointment.  Has a foot injury supposedly.

A.C. Leonard busting out a 4.43 40.  Very nice.  His 6’2″/252 lbs. frame is a bit limiting but he’s a fluid athlete that won’t provide a team much more than receiving ability.  9 1/4″ hands.

Michael Sam on the podium.  Nothing but respect for the man and his attitude is fantastic.  What a courageous young man.

Feb. 22, 10:00 AM

Here are a few first impressions and some of the things I’m watching today.

We’ve yet to see any of the tight ends, which will be a bit later.  I’m anxious to get a look at both Eric Ebron and Jace Amaro.  I was nervous about Ebron’s size but he measured in at almost 6’4 1/2″ and 250 lbs. which removes that flag.  The utlra-athletic rookie will be in a dog-fight with Amaro to be the first tight end off the board but his athleticism should keep him on top.  Recall that in my Draft Decade: TE article, first round drafted tight ends are nearly a lock for fantasy production.  Both Ebron and Amaro have what would seem to be long careers ahead of them and both should be first round selections in the NFL Draft.  I’ll be watching with great interest to see them catch the ball today, specifically for soft hands, natural snatching ability and the ability to reverse their hands during the gauntlet drill or adjusting for poor throws.  Of course, the all-important 40 will be a prime focus as well.  Ebron could run out of the building but I expect his time will be less than the hype.  He has declared his size and speed as “illegal” so he had better be able to walk that talk.

Jace Amaro is the more prototypical tight end but is also an inch taller and 15 lbs. heavier than is Ebron.  Amaro didn’t play much in-line at Texas Tech.  He isn’t as atheltic as Ebron but likely more versatile.  He’s been popularly mocked to New England which could see him first off the board in fantasy should Ebron end up as a Jet.

Notre Dame’s Troy Niklas is making a first-round push.  I don’t see it myself but I’ll be watching more tape.  He measured in at 6’6 1/2″ and 270 lbs.  which could sap his play-making ability just enough to kick him into the second round, but I’ll reserve that opinion until more film is analyzed.  Seferian-Jenkins from Washington is intriguing as well but a bit enigmatic.

Let’s talk quarterbacks.  Need I even mention the top three?  All three of Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel and Blake Bortles are going to be top ten selections come May.  There just isn’t much question about that in my mind.  That said, I can’t in good conscience put Manziel any higher than the QB3 in this draft.  Bridgewater is smooth, classic and accurate. Bortles is prototypical, mobile enough and has the size and arm to be successful. Manziel is a pure wildcard at the position.  So much talent, ability and mental tangibles to suggest a high selection, but size, immaturity, game tape and questionable humility issues will continue to dog  him leading up to the draft.  In the end, I still believe he’ll be a top ten selection.  Little way he gets beyond Tampa Bay or Minnesota at picks seven and eight respectively.  I posed the question on Twitter that I believe is a worthy one to ask: How much would we be talking about Manziel without the success of Russell Wilson?  Manziel is worthy of discussion but without the recent success of Wilson in Seattle, it’s quite possible that Manziel would be a second or third round selection as the next in a long line of undersized quarterbacks attempting to play the position typical possessed by larger players.   Wilson’s success has proven that work ethic, athletic ability and intelligence can eclipse size, at least to some degree.  I’m not ready to hang that same tag on Manziel, especially should he be drafted into a situation with a questionable offensive line.

As for Blake Bortles, I’m not overly excited about his prospects but he’s a solid player with the ability to be a long term starter in the NFL if he’s surrounded by play-makers.  I’d like to see him in Houston myself, but that goes for Bridgewater as well.

There are arguably seven quarterback-needy teams in the top ten selections.  I include St. Louis at #2 but have no expectation that they will be looking at the position.  Nor do I expect Tampa Bay to select a quarterback. That leaves Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Oakland and Minnesota fighting for the top three.  Few seem to be talking about Oakland and I have little doubt that they will be selecting one of the top three if one falls.  I see little choice for the Raiders.

The key to the quarterbacks during the draft will be Jadeveon Clowney and Greg Robinson believe it or not.  Both are such great foundational players that they cannot be ignored even for quarterback needy teams. I will not be surprised at all to see Houston select Clowney to pair with Watt to create the most feared defensive line in the NFL.   St. Louis seems to be a lock for Greg Robinson.  Jacksonville will have a choice to make but I have to believe they’ll go the more traditional route of Bridgewater or Bortles than Manziel.

I’ll follow up with the receivers shortly as I turn my attention the tight ends that are taking the field.

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Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

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