Dynasty Capsule: Jacksonville Jaguars
As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.
The Jags have been a mess on the field over the past few seasons, but that doesn’t mean there’s a complete lack of talent here for dynasty leagues. Let’s take a closer look.
Quarterback
Blaine Gabbert
First, the positive: He has beautiful hair. If I knew I could touch it without being arrested, I totally would.
The bad news is Gabbert did not have a good 2013. Just how “not good” was it? How about one touchdown, seven interceptions “not good.” We didn’t expect much from the former first rounder, but following two consecutive seasons where he had more touchdowns than picks, there was a glimmer of hope for improvement. Word out of Jacksonville is they plan to retain Gabbert strictly as a backup. With Chad Henne re-signing, I strongly suspect the flaxen haired deposed starter’s time in Florida is limited. In any event, it would take a fairly apocalyptic scenario for Gabbert to have any true dynasty value.
Chad Henne
Freshly re-signed, Henne’s 2014 role could be as a bridge starter or the number one backup. Thoroughly unimpressive, but somewhat harmless, as a starter, the Michigan Man has a career touchdown to interception ratio of 55:62.
If Henne does end up at the top of the depth chart, we shouldn’t write off their skill players entirely. Over the last two seasons with Gabbert under center, Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts averaged 7.1 and 9.8 PPR fantasy points per game (FPPG) respectively. When Henne is taking snaps, those numbers jump to 17.8 and 14.9. For dynasty purposes, Henne doesn’t retain much in the way of value. Even if he somehow ends up starting games in 2014, it will be as a mediocre one-year bridge to their quarterback of the future.
Matt Scott
Scott was signed off the Jags practice squad right before the new year. A former Arizona Wildcat, the book on Scott entering the draft was he had very good athleticism and a strong arm, but was raw overall. He ended up undrafted after being pegged as a possible mid round prospect. Buried on the depth chart on a team likely to bring in at least one additional quarterback this offseason, Scott has no dynasty value at this time.
Running Back
Jordan Todman
The current de-facto starter, Todman was reliable, but fairly unimpressive in 2013. You’d have to assume the Jags look to upgrade the position. If that does happen, Todman could still have some value as the speed half of a committee. If they decide to stick with the fourth year back, there is an outside chance the slightly built speedster attains low-end RB2 level value this coming season. For that reason alone, he is worth stashing on the back end of your roster in most dynasty formats.
Denard Robinson
Part of Robinson’s problem ishis size and skill set is very similar to the much more polished Todman. On the other hand, Head Coaches love nothing more than athletic gimmicky guys and seem to never stop finding ways to force their involvement. If all this sounds like a lukewarm assessment of the former quarterback, that’s because it is. Even if Robinson’s touches increase five-fold over the 20 he saw in 2013, he is still a longshot to ever have an impact in fantasy leagues.
Wide Receiver
Justin Blackmon
This guy is one-third David Boston, one-third Titus Young, and one-third elderly cat lady. If he could ever get his head in the right place, there is a ton of potential here, but his current indefinite suspension as a result of a 32nd violation of the league’s substance abuse policy has landed him firmly in the commish’s doghouse. If you own Blackmon, all you can do is hold. The value you could get in return isn’t likely to be nearly enough considering what you paid in the first place. If/when he returns to the Jags, he is in the WR2 discussion. Even then, there is always the risk that one more violation will result in expulsion from the league.
Cecil Shorts
Due in large part to a shoulder injury and in no small part to a poor supporting cast, Shorts disappointed in 2013. He had 11 more receptions than the previous season, but 200 less yards and four fewer touchdowns. Despite this, his ADP is roughly the same now as it was last year, which is a testament to his talent. When right, Shorts is a solid WR3 with upside for slightly more. If you can pry him loose at a reduced cost from an impatient owner, he should at the very least provide quality depth.
Ace Sanders
An itty-bitty little guy, Sanders generated a lot of buzz in the 2013 preseason. Surprisingly, the talk turned out to be somewhat prophetic, with the diminutive fourth rounder posting a solid NFL (not fantasy) season. While he did manage double digit scoring in PPR formats four of the Jags last seven games, Sanders lacks the ultimate top-end speed required for such a diminutive slot-only receiver to be an effective dynasty addition.
Mike Brown
Brown started a handful of games in place of the suspended Blackmon. He was largely ineffective and has no fantasy relevance.
Kerry Taylor
I am only including him here to nip in the bud any notion you had of rostering him following his Week 17 “breakout.” Taylor has been re-signed to fill the WR5 role, rendering him utterly worthless, even in 20-team hipster leagues.
Tight End
Marcedes Lewis
In 2010, Lewis scored ten touchdowns on his way to 184 fantasy points. He hasn’t topped 130 since. I doubt anybody reading this owns him, but if you do, you should probably stop abusing prescription medication.
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