Dynasty Capsule: Denver Broncos

Jeff Haverlack Posted On March 8, 2014

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

The Denver Broncos set numerous offensive records in 2013, but they ultimately couldn’t decipher the defense of the Seattle Seahawks in the big dance, falling a game short of their goal. With more than one big-named free agent to attend to in 2014, Peyton Manning and the Broncos are likely to look a bit different as they attempt another run.

Quarterbacks

Peyton Manning

peyton_manning2 What’s there to say about the elder Manning that fantasy coaches don’t already know? He’s recently been given the green light (neck) for 2014, steered the Broncos’ offense to numerous offensive records in 2013 and failed to shed the big-game monkey firmly perched upon his back. It’s arguable whether Manning does or does not have issues in big games, but evidence exists on both sides of the discussion to provide for an intriguing debate.

What we do know is Manning can be successful with far less on the offensive side of the ball than he has currently in Denver. With Knowshon Moreno and Eric Decker likely to depart in free agency, material changes to the offense will result. Expect Denver to land a complementary receiver to start across Demaryius Thomas and next to Wes Welker. Keep an eye on James Jones. But regardless of the name, expect Manning to have another banner year. Soon to be 38 years of age, the question remains just how many more years can be expected under center. Until that question can be answered more clearly, he’s a top name to own. There are few safer players in fantasy to have at the position as he’ll surely elicit four-letter bombs from your opponents.

Brock Osweiler

Osweiler owners are going to have to be very patient as there exists no controversy as long as Manning remains a Bronco. As the QB2 in a high powered offense, there’s value to be had, but in that it’s anyone’s guess when Osweiler will see the field, it will be a frustrating situation for dynasty leaguers. He’s only valuable for the upside he presents under center as the current heir apparent, but with little guarantee of success when the opportunity is presented, each coach must make the decision as to his future value into the value of the roster spot he possesses. He’s most valuable to Manning owners and is sure to be snatched if/when dropped, so choose wisely.

Running Backs

Knowshon Moreno

There may be no greater mystery in 2014 relating to talent and productivity than with Knowshon Moreno. No doubt the beneficiary of taking hand-offs from Peyton Manning, the question remains just how productive Moreno could be as the lead back in a lesser offense. For his part, Moreno has averaged over four yards per carry in three of the four previous years, but with 2013’s touchdown total eclipsing the total from the previous three years combined, there’s little chance your fantasy mates will put a high trade value on his head. In Moreno’s favor is the fact he’s a dual threat, can pass protect and had 60 receptions in 2013. But given his injury history, it’s hard to project anything more than last year’s 242 carries.

There’s an NFL team that will likely step up to pay Moreno $3M+ to begin the season in the backfield, but his best play, money aside, would be to provide a hometown discount to the Denver Broncos and maximize his chance for a championship ring. Dynasty coaches, especially those owning Montee Ball, will not be pleased should that occur, but in all reality, it’s the best case scenario for Moreno and his owners.

Montee Ball

There’s little doubt most all Ball owners were frustrated with is production in 2013. Few projected Moreno to beat out both Ball and Ronnie Hillman to carry the load. On the bright side, Ball will be 23 years old for nearly the entire 2013 season, averaged 4.7 yards per carry and showed adept (enough) hands out of the backfield. Patience will be rewarded for owners of Montee Ball. If you are looking to acquire, now is the time to act as there still remains the slight possibility Moreno could return to the Broncos and the fact Ball’s production in ’13 fell short of expectations. As soon as Moreno’s departure is confirmed, Ball’s value will reach nearly-untouchable levels.

Buy, buy, buy.

C.J. Anderson

Anderson has good size (224 lbs.) for a shorter (5’8″) back and he brings a load with the ball in his hands. But with only seven carries on the season for 38 yards (5.4 yards per carry), he’s a tough back to value. What we do know is Ronnie Hillman likely doesn’t factor into the Denver’s offense and is unlikely to overtake Anderson without injury occurring. C.J. should be owned in dynasty, but he’s a stash who should exist at the bottom of your roster as long as Moreno remains in the picture. If/when Moreno departs in free agency, Anderson’s value will immediately rise and he should be retained.

Ronnie Hillman

During the run-away hype train that was carrying Ronnie Hillman in 2012, we strongly advised our readers to stay away and not overpay for the undersized and fumble-prone back. Instead, we saw him being drafted as highly as 1.03 in rookie drafts by coaches with dreams of grandeur. Weak in size, fumbling and pass protection, Hillman just doesn’t have enough value other than last-player-on-your-roster in deeper leagues. He can be held during the off-season in hopes that he is traded to a more appealing situation, or while we watch preseason play out, but unless something noteworthy occurs, he’s likely to begin the season on your waiver wire.

Wide Receivers

Demaryius Thomas

Thomas will turn 27 on Christmas Day in 2014. At only 26 years of age with great size, speed and a large catch radius, he will once again remain a quality first round selection in new dynasty drafts. Having Peyton Manning tossing the pigskin doesn’t hurt his value in any way, shape or form. Injury prone in his first two years, patient owners have been rewarded as Thomas has accumulated 186 receptions, 2,864 yards and 13 touchdowns over the past two. The potency of the Denver offense has kept his touchdown total lower than would be otherwise since they have such a number of offensive weapons, but his production clearly deserves first-round status. You can’t go wrong with a pick of Thomas later in the first round and he’ll be a quality WR1 in 2014 and beyond as long as the injury bug stays far away.

Eric Decker

There’s little chance Decker returns to the Broncos as the soon-to-be 27-year old receiver is in line for his first major contract. He’s somewhat untested as a WR1, but has produced 172 receptions, 2,352 yards and 24 touchdowns over the past two years. Sign me up for “untested.” There’s likely to be a Manning discount to his production offered by acquiring teams, but look for a deal to get done relatively quickly. In an offense with a noteworthy WR1 (Detroit, Dallas or even Cleveland) he could stay ultra-productive. Even as a WR1 in New England, Seattle or Indianapolis (TY Hilton?), there’s intrigue to be had with Decker. But don’t disregard the higher level of risk. He’ll be a mystery player in new dynasty drafts with an ADP all over the map.

Wes Welker

Welker’s production dipped in a material way in 2013, raising the question about his age (32). The diminutive slot receiver will be 33 when 2014 kicks off and will command a higher than normal value given the fact that he will, once again, receive passes from Manning. Quite frankly, Welker is one of those players who can carry a competitive fantasy team to the championship game due to the fact that he will be undervalued by many due to his age and propensity for injury. Target Welker owners who are in rebuild mode to land him for a good price.

Regardless of Welker’s long term value, fantasy coaches shouldn’t lose sight of players like this. Veteran productivity at a cheap cost can be a difference maker of ridiculous proportion. PPR coaches take note.

Andre Caldwell

Caldwell was a hot add following his week 15 stat line of 6/59/2. Problem was, he wouldn’t match any of those numbers over the following two weeks combined. As the WR4 in Denver’s rotation and a free agent, there’s a good chance Caldwell will return as a Bronco in ’14, but his asking price may dictate is situation. In either case, his value doesn’t likely equate to a roster spot, even in deeper leagues.

Nathan Palmer

Nothing to see here, move along.

Jordan Norwood

See Nathan Palmer.

Tight Ends

Julius Thomas

DLF’ers were first on the scene with Julius Thomas as we recommended his pick-up before most even knew who he was. What followed was a monster season in which he reeled in 65 receptions, 788 yards and scored 12 touchdowns. As long as Peyton is under center, Thomas projects well for the Broncos and his fantasy owners. Even without Manning in the equation, we like Thomas’ reliable hands and work ethic. In an offense that has as many weapons as do the Broncos, Julius Thomas should continue to be a top eight threat at the position.

Jacob Tamme

In the absence of Thomas, Tamme has upside due to his long standing chemistry with Manning, dating back to 2008. He’s not a dynamic athlete, but he’s a reliable in both his routes and with his hands and there’s no questioning the trust between he and Manning. He’s no better than a TE3 with a healthy Julius Thomas in the picture.

Virgil Green

Green has underwhelmed as a tight end and remains only a situational player. He has athleticism and talent that has yet to be displayed on the field since being drafted in 2011. He’s a free agent in 2015 so he’ll have one more shot at becoming a noteworthy producer.

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Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

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