Bye Week Scouting Report: New Orleans and Oakland
We realized that we somehow missed the week seven version of this series. Â Better late than never ….
The Raiders and Saints are two teams going in completely different directions but they have one thing in common, they both have byes in week seven.
New Orleans Saints
Some fantasy owners are concerned about the Saints after their loss to the Patriots in week six. After all, Drew Brees completed only 17 of 36 passes for 236 yards, Jimmy Graham was held without a catch for the first time since week seven of his rookie season and Marques Colston was limited to less than 20 yards receiving for the second consecutive week.
Some believe the Patriots showed the blueprint of how to slow down the New Orleans passing attack. Â I just tip my cap to Bill Belichick and company for putting together a game plan and executing it perfectly.
For those that think other defenses will just copy what the Patriots did to stop the Saints, remember that not every defense has Aquib Talib to blanket Graham in one-on-one coverage. Talib shadowed Graham all over the field for the most part and didn’t allow him to make a catch, even though he was targeted six times.
With Talib neutralizing Graham, most would expect Colston to pick up the slack. That didn’t happen due to the constant double coverage he saw. Colston saw three targets, catching only one of them for 11 yards.
Brees’ ineffectiveness was caused by tight coverage on his best targets and solid pressure from New England’s front seven. Although he was only sacked once, he had guys around him all day. Even with his overall inefficiency, he managed to give his fantasy owners two touchdown passes.
While all of this sounds like a reason to be concerned about Brees and the rest of the Saints offense, there’s no reason to worry.
Every year since New Orleans made Sean Payton the head coach and Brees was signed, the Saints have ranked in the top six in the league in total offense and never finished lower than fourth in the league in passing offense. That’s seven consecutive years of being one of the top offenses in the league. This year, the Saints rank fifth in the league in total yards (397.7 per game) and third in passing (311) and are eighth in scoring with 26.8 points per game, so nobody should expect a lull in performance going forward.
I’ll say it again, a great game plan by a great coach and nothing more than that.
With that said, the bye week may be just what the doctor ordered in The Big Easy. Graham was injured near the end of the game in Foxboro and although he returned after the injury, his fantasy owners are concerned about his availability in week eight. It’s been reported that the injury is minor and Graham may return after the bye, but fantasy owners should remember that many reports have been made about the return of fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski, and we all know how that has turned out.
As the season goes on, there’s no reason to expect anything but the status quo from the Saints offense. Brees will continue to spread the ball around and put up big fantasy numbers. Currently, he ranks behind only Peyton Manning among quarterbacks in most scoring systems and there’s no reason to think that will change. In fact, with the weather becoming more and more of an issue late in the year in Denver, I expect Brees to close the gap between himself and Manning before the season ends.
While Brees will no doubt put up big numbers, it’s difficult to judge how that will translate to his receivers.
Although Colston has struggled over the past two weeks, it’s hard to imagine the Saints offense continuing to rank among the league leaders through the air without him being a major part of it. He leads the team in targets by a wide receiver with 34. The next closest is Kenny Stills with 18.
Colston is an ideal trade target coming off back-to-back poor performances. Over the past three seasons, he’s averaged 82 catches for 1,106 yards and eight touchdowns. If he’s going to reach those numbers, he’ll have to catch 58 passes for 782 yards and seven touchdowns over the last ten games in 2013. I wouldn’t bet against him doing it.
Stills is an exciting prospect. He fits the Saints offense perfectly, with quickness, solid route running and good hands, and has even caught praise from Brees. He’s caught ten passes for 198 yards and a touchdown so far this season while filling in for Lance Moore, who’s out with an injury. When Moore returns, Stills’ playing time will likely decrease but that shouldn’t affect dynasty owners’ opinion of him. When Moore gets back on the field, that’s when owners should target Stills in a trade.
Nick Toon is also an interesting young receiver in New Orleans. He’s the poor man’s version of Colston. He’s not quick and certainly doesn’t have blazing speed, but he is big, runs good routes and has good hands. His value is most likely tied directly to the health of Colston, but if he were to get an opportunity, he would definitely have fantasy value. He’s an excellent candidate for one of the last roster spots on your dynasty team.
Graham, as long as he’s healthy, is one of the top five fantasy players in the game right now. His injury may have some worried, so now may be the only time during the season to try to acquire him. If you do that, be prepared to pay a king’s ransom. Even with the injury, his price tag is extremely high. If he does miss any time, backup tight end Ben Watson could prove to be an adequate replacement, both for the Saints, and your fantasy team.
The running game in New Orleans has also been productive. Darren Sproles has proven once again to be a high-end RB2 in PPR leagues and a quality flex play in standard scoring leagues, accounting for nearly 500 yards from scrimmage and two scores through six games.
Pierre Thomas has also established himself as a useful flex in PPR leagues. He’s caught 29 passes for 195 yards and two touchdowns and added 188 rushing yards. The only downfall is that his role may diminish a bit when Mark Ingram returns from injury.
This off-season, Graham’s contract expires, but fantasy owners shouldn’t worry. If the Saints aren’t able to lock him up to a long term contract, they will no doubt give him the franchise tag.
The 2015 off-season is more interesting. Sproles, Ingram and Thomas are all scheduled to be free agents. It’s worth keeping an eye on whom, if anybody, the Saints choose to re-sign between now and then.
|
Buy |
Sell |
Hold |
|
Drew Brees Marquez Colston Kenny Stills Jimmy Graham |
Mark Ingram |
Darren Sproles Pierre Thomas Nick Toon Garrett Hartley |
Â
 Oakland Raiders
The Raiders aren’t nearly as exciting as the Saints from a pure football standpoint or a fantasy prerogative. The Oakland offense ranks 27th in the league in scoring (17.5 ppg) and 27th in total offense (320.8 ypg).
The only bright spot in Oakland has been the running game. They rank ninth in the league in rushing, running for 129.8 yards per game. Many would assume that having a quality running game would mean that Darren McFadden is having a good season, but that’s hardly been the case.
Coming into the season, many (myself included) expected a bounce back season from McFadden with the Raiders returning to the power running scheme that he performed so well in a few years ago. We have been wrong to this point. McFadden has averaged only 3.9 yards per carry, running for 267 yards on 69 carries and two touchdowns so far this year. Predictably, he’s also been slowed by injury. He missed nearly all of Oakland’s week five game against the Redskins with a hamstring injury and the entire game a week later against San Diego.
The reason the Raiders rushing numbers have looked so good on paper hasn’t been due to any Oakland running back. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor is averaging 6.7 yards per rush and 57.8 yards per game thus far in 2013. Although he’s proven effective when running with the ball, it’s come at a price. Pryor has taken some vicious shots while outside the pocket, one of which gave him a concussion. That injury forced him to miss the Raiders game against the Redskins.
Through the air, Pryor’s been average at best, throwing for 1,061 yards and five touchdowns along with five interceptions in five games.
Oakland’s offensive line deserves most of the blame for the offenses problems. Pryor’s been pressured on 78 of his 176 (44.3%) drop backs so far this season, which ranks in the bottom three in the league in that category. The line has also allowed 27 sacks this season, although seven of them were with Matt Flynn under center in Pryor’s absence.
The only receiver Pryor has had any chemistry with is Denarius Moore, who has 29 catches for 399 yards and four touchdowns on 41 targets so far this year. Impressive numbers when you consider he was only targeted once in week two against the Jaguars.
As the season progresses, it will be hard for fantasy owners to trust anybody on Oakland’s roster.
Pryor ranks in the middle of the pack among fantasy quarterbacks and gives no indication that will change as we get further into the season. He’ll have good games, but most of his damage will come on the ground and unless he starts getting chances around the goal line, which is unlikely due to the offense’s inability to move the ball effectively, his upside is limited. Doing so much scrambling will also make him more susceptible to injury.  Going forward, Pryor is nothing more than a developmental QB3 in dynasty leagues that is useful in the short term if a team suffers a rash of injuries.
I’ve given up on McFadden. I know I was probably the last to have any faith that he’d turn into a fantasy asset, but that faith has been completely wiped out. Holes are rarely opened up by the Raiders awful offensive line but when they are, McFadden no longer has the explosion he once had to quickly get to the second level.
Over the next four weeks after the bye, the Raiders face three teams ranked near the bottom of the league in rushing defense, Pittburgh (22nd), New York (26th) and Houston (25th). If McFadden were to have any luck against any of them, I would sell him for whatever I could get that I found useful.
Moore is likely to be the most useful player for fantasy purposes that wears the silver and black. He’s currently ranked as the 17th wide receiver in standard leagues and 24th in PPR, making him a low end WR2 in all formats. At this point, I’d be much more comfortable with him as my WR3 due to the limitations of the rest of the offense but he has the upside to become a quality WR2 as early as this season.
There really isn’t a lot of upside on the rest of the Raiders roster at this point. Backup running backs Rashad Jennings and Marcel Reece are both only useful when McFadden misses time and even then, they’re fantasy values are minimal. Wide receivers Rod Streater and Jacoby Ford aren’t worth a roster spot in most leagues.
Mychal Rivera is one name worth remembering for the Raiders. Although he’s only caught 12 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown, the sixth round pick out of Tennessee has played more each of the last five weeks and has been more involved in the passing game as the season has progressed. He’s an interesting candidate for one of the final spots on dynasty rosters and has the potential going into next year to become a fantasy contributor.
|
Buy |
Sell |
Hold |
|
Denarius Moore |
Darren McFadden |
Terrelle Pryor Mychal Rivera |
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