Divisional Breakouts
Today we continue our weekly group effort series highlighting an offensive and defensive player from each division who we believe has breakout potential for the upcoming week. Because let’s be honest, who really cares about last week? It’s all about players who can help us win the next game.
Since every league is different from size to scoring to lineup requirements, we set some parameters. We are looking for players who could go from “bench to breakout” in 12 team PPR leagues starting one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, a tight end and a defense. The IDP nominees will be players who have solid matchups but due to the vastly differing IDP league depths, it will be much harder to identify “deep sleepers” without alienating most our readers. If you’re looking for deeper sleepers feel free to contact me on Twitter or in the comments section.
We won’t waste anyone’s time talking about a kicker. You also won’t see us trying to convince you a player like Drew Brees or Frank Gore are breakout players. We want players who are either on your bench or on your waiver wire. Please understand this is not a “Waiver Wire” article. We are trying to help you sift through the fringe players and identify who has the potential to put up better than normal statistics.
My partners in crime for this article are:
NFC North- Dan Meylor
NFC East-Karl Safchick
NFC South- Eric Hardter
NFC West- The FF Ghost
AFC North- Eric Olinger
AFC East- Jeff Beran
AFC South- Tim Stafford
AFC West- Scott Peak
NFC North
Ryan Broyles, WR DET
Two weeks ago, I advised readers to consider Nate Burleson in this space. Oh how things change. Burleson broke his arm early Tuesday morning in a car accident and is out indefinitely. Enter Broyles.
Although he has a relatively substantial injury history himself including multiple ACL surgeries, the Lions see Broyles as an ideal possession receiver. He played 17 snaps in week three against the Redskins, his first action of the year, catching three passes for 34 yards. Those numbers will rise starting this weekend against the Bears, and with the Lions throw first offense, they could spike sharply relatively soon. Broyles is dripping with potential and if he can stay off the training table, fantasy owners should expect him to put up nice numbers going forward, especially in PPR leagues.
IDP- Willie Young, DE DET
Surprisingly, the Bears offensive line isn’t the sieve we’ve all grown accustomed to. If I asked you what two teams have given up the fewest sacks this year, would you say Chicago and Detroit? If you did you’d shockingly be right. So why Willie Young? Even though he didn’t start last week he played 74% of the defensive snaps. Now Jason Jones is lost for the year which will lead to more playing time for Young. Even though Cutler has only been sacked three times this year, he will be facing a fast and furious Lions defensive line.
NFC East
Gavin Escobar, TE DAL
He was considered by many to be a top three tight end coming out of college, but the process of becoming an NFL player is more difficult for some than it is for others. Escobar went to San Diego State, a school that doesn’t produce a large number of professional football players, so his learning curve was expected to be high. Lately I’ve been wondering why so many developmental players are being overlooked in the dynasty community, and Escobar fits the mold of a developmental tight end. He was drafted early in the second round by the Dallas Cowboys, and has wonderful hands and reach. He is the prototypical “pass catching” tight end, but he can’t seem to earn playing time volume yet. Escobar caught his first NFL touchdown this past Sunday, though. His value should still be low, if he’s on your waiver wire, pick him up before he has consecutive weeks in which he scores.
IDP- Brandon Boykin, CB PHI
Bottom line, Peyton Manning and Wes Welker are coming to town. Manning will find the weak spot on your defense and exploit it the entire game. Boykin is going to be tested early and often trying to stick to Wes Welker. He should see a ton of tackle opportunities as the Eagles will be forced into nickel and dime packages for much of the game.
NFC South
Kenny Stills, WR NO
Straight from the Department of Redundancy Department, by selecting Saints’ rookie receiver Kenny Stills I’m choosing to once again highlight a player squaring off with the Miami Dolphins. Though Miami is undefeated, they are certainly not devoid of flaws and their biggest issue could be a 20th ranked pass defense that allows 263.3 yards per game. With New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees averaging 340.3 passing yards per contest while also playing in the cozy confines of the Superdome, this is the definition of a “plus” matchup – the footballs will more than likely be flying around the yard.
Digging deeper, the Dolphins are also no strangers to giving up the big play. Colts receiver TY Hilton torched the Miami secondary in week two with an average of 20.7 yards per catch and a long of 47 yards, and the Falcons’ Julio Jones chipped in a 28-yard gainer this past Sunday as well. Given Stills’ robust average of 32.0 yards per catch, including a 67-yard play in week one, he could very well be this week’s beneficiary. One long touchdown would be enough to vault him to weekly WR3 status and owners missing players due to injuries or byes could do a lot worse for an upside play.
IDP- Cameron Jordan, DE NO
The Dolphins have given up 14 sacks through the first three games, second most in the league. Jordan is coming off a two sack performance and has three on the season. He is thriving in Rob Ryan’s scheme and should flat out mutilate the Dolphins offensive line this week. Good luck Ryan Tannehill.
NFC West
Andre Roberts, WR ARI
Arizona looks to be the only team in the NFC with a halfway decent match-up with the Cardinals facing Tampa Bay. Elsewhere in the NFC West Seattle will face Houston and the Rams and 49ers will face each other. Brutal! As such I’m going to place the Week four NFC West Player of the Week title on Andre Roberts. Tampa Bay can be passed on and Carson Palmer is more than able to do so. Fitzgerald will likely draw Revis so the next favorite target for Palmer is Roberts. As such Roberts will likely be targeted in the double digits and might even be able to sneak in a score, or dare I say it, two scores!
IDP- Tyrann Mathieu, S ARI
Mathieu has not shown a bit of rust since entering the NFL. He has been a play-making force in the Cardinal secondary. This week’s game between the Cardinals and the Buccaneers has the feeling like there might be three defensive / special teams touchdowns. Josh Freeman was arguably playing the worst football of any quarterback outside of Jacksonville and has now been replaced by rookie Mike Glennon. I think I would actually be shocked if Mathieu didn’t end up with a turnover this week.
AFC North
Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
After surprisingly practicing in full and almost playing last week, Le’Veon Bell is expected to suit up for the Steelers this week. It couldn’t come at a better time as the Vikings have given up the most fantasy points to running backs thus far in this young season, according to MyFantasyLeague.com. Normally, I like to take a wait and see approach to running backs coming off of injury but the Steelers are desperate for a spark and could feed the rookie right out of the gate. As we saw with Josh Gordon last week, sometimes risks pay off and this is one worth taking with running backs under-performing league wide.
IDP- Elvis Dumervil, OLB BAL
Dumervil hasn’t lit the world on fire since joining the Ravens but he has been able to get to the quarterback. He recorded a sack in his first two games and could easily double that this week in Buffalo versus a rookie quarterback panicking in comeback mode. Look for the Ravens defense as a whole to be super aggressive and force E.J. Manuel into mistakes.
AFC East
Aaron Dobson, WR NE
Tom Brady finally showed some chemistry with his rookie wide receivers, Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins, in the Patriots’ victory over Tampa Bay this past weekend. With the possible return of Rob Gronkowski against the Falcons this week, the burden on the rookies should be eased quite a bit as the defense must focus on Brady’s favorite target. Dobson will be able to take advantage of the already depleted Atlanta secondary to the tune of seven catches for 90 yards and a touchdown.
IDP- Rob Ninkovich, DE NE
The Falcons are currently dealing with a ton of injuries on both offense and defense. This week Tom Brady and the Patriots are coming to town and it’s possible they could have both Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola. Right now Chandler Jones is the focal point on the defensive side of the ball and Ninkovich sees a lot of one-on-one matchups. Even though the Falcons have only given up five sacks in three games, this line will be put to the test. While he only has half a sack on the season, he has 19 total tackles which gives him a high floor to go with his high ceiling.
AFC South
Jake Locker, QB TEN
Could it be real? Do the Titans actually have their quarterback of the future? Maybe so. His performance on Sunday was impressive and his receivers helped him out – as did the terrible Chargers defensive scheme. But keep an eye on Locker, he might prevent the Titans from burning yet another first round pick on a quarterback.
IDP- Moise Fokou, LB TEN
The Jets are going to run the ball a ton. Their goal is to put as little pressure on Geno Smith as possible and lean heavily on Bilal Powell and the running game. This is going to benefit Titans’ linebackers Zach Brown and Moise Fokou. While Zach Brown has earned every week starter status, Fokou is more of a matchup play and this is a good matchup.
AFC West
Dwayne Bowe, WR KC
Fantasy owners of Bowe have been frustrated beyond description this year. He has a grand total of 9 receptions, 90 yards and one touchdown. Bowe has fewer targets than Kyle Williams and Jason Avant. Josh Gordon has 17 targets, one more than Bowe, and he missed the first two games. It is obvious that Bowe has been underutilized. Alex Smith has not been courageous in challenging teams vertically, and his check-down prowess has pleased Jamaal Charles owners.
This week, Bowe gets to play against the New York Giants defense at home. The Giants have the worst pass-rushing defense in the NFL, dead last at 31 with just three sacks. The past two games, Smith has played against Dallas and Philadelphia, both of which have a total of 22 sacks. Smith has been sacked 10 times this year, good for third most in the NFL. This week, Smith gets a Giants defense that has been unable to generate a pass-rush, in the friendly confines of their home stadium. Head coach Andy Reid has demonstrated an appreciation for challenging defenses vertically with such players as Jeremy Maclin and Desean Jackson while coaching the Eagles. Reid needs to get his prime playmaker at wide receiver involved, and what better time than against a reeling Giants defense with no pass rush? This week, Bowe will have his own break out and his owners can finally get a return on their investment.
IDP- Shaun Phillips, LB DEN
Phillips is the ultimate boom or bust player in the IDP world. He wreaked havoc in week one with 2.5 sacks versus Baltimore but has been completely invisible the last two weeks. The Eagles have given up 11 sacks through three games and should be in catch-up mode pretty much the entire game. This feels like a Shaun Phillips kind of game. If you’re a gambling man and need a replacement for Clay Matthews or Luke Kuechly, you could do a lot worse than Phillips’ high ceiling.
There you have it folks. Hopefully we were able to give you some ideas if you’re looking for a sneaky play this week. See ya next week.
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Seven - October 24, 2018
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Six - October 16, 2018
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Five - October 10, 2018
