The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. In my 12-team, non-PPR league I picked last in the start-up and took AJ Green and Julio Jones. At running back I ended up with DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell, Lamar Miller and Gio Bernard. I have Marcus Lattimore and Christine Michael for the future, but would love a better running back for this year. A Steelers fan in my league approached me about trading his Stevan Ridley and Mike Gillislee for my Bell, Vincent Brown and Julius Thomas. I have Rob Gronkowski and tons of receiver depth, and fumbling issues are easier to overcome than foot injuries, right? Should I make this move? – Eric in DC
When it comes to the New England offense right now, there are several things about which we fantasy owners can complain. The rookie receivers don’t appear to be gelling with quarterback Tom Brady, Danny Amendola is already hurt, and of course star tight end Rob Gronkowski has yet to play a down in 2013. With that said, one player still appears to be locked and loaded for prime fantasy production, and that’s running back Stevan Ridley.
Yes, he fumbled in a week one clash with the Buffalo Bills and appeared precipitously close to losing his job to breakout candidate Shane Vereen. As we all know by now, however, Vereen injured his wrist and was placed on the short-term injured reserve list, meaning Ridley is once again the only show in town in the backfield. To that end, even taking into account a two-quarter benching in the opener, as well as an inept outing by the entire offense in last Thursday’s monsoon, Ridley has already carried the ball 25 times through two weeks. With better times, and more importantly a few goal line carries sure to come, Ridley should be back to his low-end non-PPR RB1 form sooner rather than later.
This brings us to what you’d potentially be giving up, a package that is highlighted by rookie running back Le’Veon Bell of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Popularly viewed as the only surefire workhorse of the 2013 freshman ball carriers, Bell saw his value take a nosedive when he suffered an unclassified foot injury in a preseason game against the Redskins. Right now his best-case scenario involves a return in early to mid October, but there are no guarantees with regards to this season’s prospects.
Despite that, Bell is only 21 years old, and dynasty football should always place a greater emphasis on a player’s potential longevity – as such, it’s prudent to consider Bell’s long-term viability. Unfortunately, we currently don’t have that ability, as his entire preseason consisted of a mere four carries. So with nothing more than college tape, combine numbers, hopes and dreams to go on, what’s an owner to do?
I say you make the trade. You’re giving up a relatively unknown quantity in Bell in order to obtain a guaranteed starter and proven asset in Ridley. Losing Vincent Brown hurts, but he doesn’t have the look of a truly game-changing receiver. Shipping off Julius Thomas stings even more, but in Denver’s spread-the-wealth offense it’s entirely possible week one will go down as his best game of the season – besides, you already have an elite player at the position in Gronkowski. You’ll ultimately make your starting lineup better, and your glut of young talent at the running back position should mitigate the hit of losing Bell.
2. I have a competitive team in my 12-man PPR league, but feel I will be even more competitive next year. Along those lines, I own Brandon Marshall and feel that he only has two to three more productive seasons left. I was recently offered Brian Quick, plus 2014 first and third round picks. Accepting the trade would put me at a disadvantage this year, but I’ll also have Percy Harvin healthy next year – would the picks be more valuable to me than Marshall? – Mike in NY
As I just mentioned in my answer to Eric’s question above, dynasty leaguers should always place an emphasis on the future as well as the present. As such, when making trade decisions one of the most critical factors is the age of the players involved. Father Time remains undefeated, so it’s a given that even a PPR phenom like Brandon Marshall will eventually succumb to his icy grip.
With that said, aging or not a stud is still a stud. Marshall is “only” 29 years old and it’s been shown recently that top tier talents at the wide receiver position (Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne, to name a couple) can sustain excellence into their early thirties. I see no reason why Marshall can’t anchor your team both now, as well as for the next few years while the rest of your players improve and return to health.
However, if you truly do want to cash in on Marshall’s stratospheric value, you’re going to need a lot more than what’s currently being offered. Once hyped receiver Brian Quick is no better than fifth in the Rams’ pecking order, well behind Chris Givens, Tavon Austin, Jared Cook and even running back Daryl Richardson. While he has the prototypical physical tools necessary to succeed, it means little if he fails grasp the mental aspects of the game.
As for the draft picks, those are nothing more than metaphorical lottery tickets. That first round pick is more than likely going to drop a few spots due to your prospective trade partner’s addition of Marshall, and there’s always the chance you’ll whiff on the pick anyway. The third rounder also fails to move the needle for me.
If you truly want to be proactive, I’d approach the owners of players like Josh Gordon and Hakeem Nicks. These receivers, while still young, have already shown starting-caliber ability and should have several good years ahead of them. You should be able to get a draft pick thrown in as well, and your team will be well set up for both now and in the future.
3. I recently lost Shane Vereen and my next best option at running back is Joique Bell. I’ve been offered a trade where I give up Michael Bush and a 2014 second round rookie pick for DeAngelo Williams. I don’t own Matt Forte but do own Mike Tolbert. I believe my team is very much in contention to win this year. Should I make this trade? – Jack in CA
DeAngelo Williams, the 30-year old Panthers’ running back who many have left for dead, is about as appealing in most dynasty circles as Kryptonite is to Superman. Yet despite that, he currently has the Carolina backfield all to himself, and thus far in 2013 has averaged 4.4 yards per carry en route to having the fifth most rushing yards in the entire league. Simply put, he’s the definition of a “win now” player.
With that said, there are also some cold, hard facts about Williams. He’s what many would label a “declining asset,” as his trade value will undoubtedly continue to drop as the days on the calendar peel away. He’s also likely to lose touches when fellow ball carriers Jonathan Stewart and Kenjon Barner return from their respective injuries. Finally, due to the presence of goal-line maven Cam Newton, Williams is about as likely to score as the Captain of the chess team on Prom night.
But you know what – I don’t care about any of that. Often lost in the desire to correctly forecast the stock market that is dynasty football is the killer instinct necessary to do whatever it takes to win. No trade will ever lock you into a championship, but if trading for Williams increases your odds, why wouldn’t you look to do so? If the price tag is merely a backup running back and a mid-level draft pick, then that’s all the better. Like the late, great Al Davis said, “Just win baby!”
4. In my 12-team non-PPR league I am currently being offered Arian Foster in exchange for Giovani Bernard. Usually I would take it without hesitation but with the struggles of Foster as of late and the upside Bernard has is this a good trade for me? – Jay in NY
When it comes to debating the merits of Arian Foster and Giovani Bernard, I firmly believe we’re looking at two players moving in distinctly opposite directions. Bernard looked downright electric against a stout Steelers defense on Monday Night Football, whereas Foster truly isn’t even currently the best option in his own Houston backfield. It’s that latter point that I’d like to address even further.
When I unveiled the new “True Points” metric for running backs, Foster’s 2012 efficiency was shown to be highly predicated upon two main factors: volume and touchdowns. During last year’s regular season Foster averaged a robust 24.4 touches per game, while also scoring 17 total touchdowns, or 1.06 per contest. These staggering totals alone were able to counteract career worsts in both yards per carry and yards per catch, leaving Foster once again as an elite fantasy weapon.
Unfortunately, 2013 has brought about changes for the former bell cow. Foster has seen a reduction of 3.5 carries per game, and has only scored once thus far. More importantly, his efficiency has dipped even further yet, as Foster is averaging a miniscule 4.0 yards per touch. Compared to explosive backfield mate Ben Tate (7.1 yards per touch), Foster appears to be stuck in first gear, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he continues to cede work to his younger counterpart.
So it’s with that expectation that I would decline this offer. I’m sure I’ll hear it from the remaining Foster supporters, who seem unwilling to accept the possibility that this fantasy icon is on his metaphorical (and literal) last legs, but I’d much rather have Bernard for the next five-plus years, even in a non-PPR setting. Much like with just about everything in the so-called “real world,” all good things must come to an end in fantasy as well.
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