Not for Long: Quarterback Edition
The profound letters “N, F and L” don’t just stand for National Football League. In a sport where circumstances change faster than Oakland’s projected week one starter, the acronym NFL is given a secondary meaning: Not For Long. This means we can’t take anything for granted. It wasn’t long ago Mark Ingram was a consensus top three pick in rookie drafts or Aaron Hernandez was considered a lock for top tier tight end production. Sometimes the changing circumstances are due to unpredictable events, such as the season ending injuries, but in many cases the drastic change in player values come from expectations. Whether its anticipating a player’s situation or analyzing their skill set, the perception and expectations of players are key factors in identifying their future values.
Dynasty owners have to be a step ahead of the game in realizing what the perception of the player is now and what it will be in the future. It is with this mentality I share with you my thoughts of some of the current perceptions of players now, and what I am anticipating for the future. Some may be bold – but with risk comes reward. At the end of the day, you have to trust your instincts, be able to act on them and put yourself in a position to win.
Not For Long will…
1.) …Terrelle Pryor be starting for the Raiders.
In what could be the weakest NFL squad, the quarterback position in Oakland is as unsettled and as undesirable as it gets. Matt Flynn’s failure to keep the starting position wasn’t surprising given his physical limitations, but the Raiders’ decision to give Terrelle Pryor the starting job is a “lesser of two evils” situation. Pryor may be more physically gifted and has a greater upside, but he is far from a polished player.
In week one, Pryor managed solid fantasy production. With over 100 yards rushing, it is easy for dynasty owners to see the mirage of another duel-threat quarterback. When I watch him play, however, he reminds me more of Tim Tebow than Robert Griffin III or Colin Kaepernick. By this I mean Pryor may force defenses to alter their game plan, but he is a better fantasy quarterback than actual quarterback. I think the most important factor is he doesn’t look comfortable in the pocket at all. After dropping back, if his first read is covered he will immediately tuck the ball and run. While his mobility does enable him to extend plays, he rarely looks downfield while doing so. Fantasy owners may like the rushing yards, but this tendency won’t fly as an NFL starting quarterback.
Pryor may be the best option for the Raiders for now, but he has a lot more to prove before the Raiders feel confident committing to him. It’s still easy to envision them starting several different quarterbacks over the course of the season with any inconsistency from Pryor. Following what is destined to be a rough year, the Oakland Raiders are a prime candidate to take a quarterback with an early selection in the 2014 draft.
2.) …Josh Freeman be a Buccaneer.
Since Greg Schiano took the head coaching position before the 2012 season, he has shown various degrees of support (or lack-thereof) for Josh Freeman. When Schiano accepted the job, he certainly didn’t need to be attached to incumbent quarterback. In Schiano’s own words, he isn’t “married to him”. This offseason he followed this up by drafting Mike Glennon in the third round of the rookie draft. Now Freeman is in the last year of his five-year rookie contract, and this issue will certainly be a point of contention following the season.
Schiano claims Freeman’s lack of vocal leadership isn’t an issue, but I don’t buy it. Freeman’s laid-back, passive personality doesn’t mesh with Schiano’s high energy, aggressive coaching style. Schiano wasn’t publically supporting his quarterback until the end of the preseason when he had little other options at the position. It will take some time for the team to see what they have in Glennon and there is no other serviceable option to start the season behind center.
What it comes down to is a make-it or break-it season for Freeman. After posting a much improved sophomore season in 2010, his play slid and has never been able to get to the next level. After four mediocre seasons as a pro, if Freeman doesn’t step-up in a big way this year, Schiano will have no problem cutting ties. I just don’t think he can provide enough wins for a playoff birth in such a difficult division to justify the organization giving him a large contract and convincing Schiano to continue the program in that direction. Freeman shouldn’t have difficulty finding a suitor in free agency, but don’t be surprised when he isn’t wearing red and metallic silver next season.
3.) …Ryan Tannehill be a QB2.
Ryan Tannehill had an impressive rookie season overshadowed by a year filled with breakout quarterbacks. Statistically he didn’t stand out as much as his fellow rookies, but his performance flew under the radar. He threw for nearly 3,300 yards and his 12:13 touchdown to interception ratio limited his fantasy production. When watching his games, I saw a poised young man improving as the season continued.
Tannehill is expected by many to take some serious strides forward as a player this year. Entering his second season in the NFL, the game should slow down a bit for him and he can become a more vocal leader for his squad. In the first game of the season he looked calm with the ability to make his reads and hang in the pocket, though he did show inaccuracy with some of his deep throws.
When combined with the increase in surrounding talent, Tannehill is a serious contender to emerge as a borderline fantasy QB1. One major obstacle, however, is the quarterback is currently a deep position. For Tannehill to move into this rank, there must be some options falling out of the top twelve. While this may not happen during the 2013 season, by the end of next year he could very well be a weekly starter.
4.) …Kirk Cousins be stuck behind RGIII
It was a surprise last year when the Redskins took Kirk Cousins with their fourth round selection following their selection of Robert Griffin III with the second overall pick. There was never any doubt RGIII was considered the future of the Redskins and a lock for the starting role. With veteran Rex Grossman capable of handling backup duties, this means Shanahan must have seen Cousins as a value pick he could develop.
The unpredictable part was Griffin’s late season injuries. Washington certainly had quite a scare with their coveted rookie, but this situation gave Cousins some crucial game experience. In week fifteen he performed admirably, completing over 70% of his passes for 329 yards, two touchdowns and just one interception. Equally important, he was able to secure a victory over the Browns to keep his team in the playoff hunt.
While this wasn’t ideal for the team, it did enable them to showcase Cousins. In a league containing so many quarterback-starved teams, league offices will look at Cousins as a young prospect with some crucial experience under his belt and potential as a future starter. While his experience is limited, people have put more on the line after seeing less (see: Matt Flynn). After RGIII has learned to protect himself following a full recovery and an injury free season, the Skins will have no problem moving him for a high pick in a talented 2014 rookie draft.
5.) …any current quarterback on the Jets roster be starting games.
While week one brought the Jets win, anyone watching knew it was truly by a stroke of dumb luck. Unless an alignment of the stars intends to help them put together a string of wins, another flop year could mean the end of the Rex Ryan era in New York.
With a new coaching staff would come a fresh start. First things first, say goodbye to Mark Sanchez. Ryan was Sanchez’s biggest (and perhaps only) remaining supporter. In a far overdue move, the program will take the cap hit on his signing bonus and immediately cut ties. Sanchez had more than his fair share of opportunities and a new coach will be more than ready to start the program with a fresh slate.
With the Jets in such rough shape, it’s hard to imagine a truly impressive rookie season from Geno Smith. Unless he truly has a miraculous season, a new Head Coach will have the support to build the program their way, rather than start with their reputation tied to a player not personally handpicked for their offensive system. In such circumstances, this means they’ll likely take a quarterback early in a potentially impressive 2014 rookie quarterback class. It’s doubtful they scrap Smith after just a year, but he could be allowed to compete for the job or it’s possible he’s sent out for a pick.
