Prove It
The hype has been building for months now, as it does every offseason. And just like every other summer, it’s been hard not to get caught up in it. Players soar up draft boards, sometimes at alarming rates, and in many instances the dynasty owners that invest so much into those players don’t have the luxury of patience. The time for hype is behind us, though. Week one has arrived and players will no longer be judged on potential, but squarely on performance. It’s time for these touted players to prove that they’re worth all the hype.
Lamar Miller, RB MIA
Coming out of college, many thought Miller could be drafted as highly as the tail end of the first round. He fell to the fourth round however due to durability concerns, his unimpressive pass blocking and perceived inability to pick up an NFL playbook. Nonetheless, the Dolphins scooped him up as a developmental running back and possible kick returner. As a rookie he was impressive albeit in limited action backing up Reggie Bush. He carried the ball only 51 times in 2012 for 250 yards (4.9 avg) and a touchdown. With Bush due to hit free agency, most dynasty owners considered Miller to be a possible break out candidate going into the off-season.
Miller’s stock began to soar when Bush signed a free agent contract with the Lions in March. According to DLF’s resident ADP guru Ryan McDowell, Miller’s ADP was #40 before Bush left for the Motor City. With Bush gone, Miller had only Daniel Thomas to share the backfield with. Many thought the Dolphins would sign a veteran to compete for carries but free agency came and went without a signing of note. Miller’s hype continued to climb when the Dolphins waited until the fifth round of the 2013 NFL draft to choose a tailback. His ADP in dynasty leagues was #37 in April. By the time August came around, his ADP settled in at #22.
There’s certainly a lot to be excited about with Miller. His sub 4.4 second forty-yard dash times along with his 212 pound frame are ideal in an every down back. He is powerful between the tackles and has an impressive burst through the hole. Doubters point out that Miller has never carried a full workload at the NFL level, his pass catching skills are lacking (he only caught 6 passes as a rookie and 28 in his college career at Miami) and although his pass protection has reportedly improved since he was drafted, he is not considered to be anything better than average in that department.
With all that said, Miller has a prime opportunity to seize the running back job in Miami for years to come. Many dynasty owners have taken a risk and paid a relatively high price for his potential. Now’s the time to prove that he’s a three-down back at the NFL level and was worth the risk that dynasty owners made to acquire him.
Josh Gordon, WR CLE
Gordon’s path to the NFL was very different than most. After many off the field incidents at Baylor including failing multiple drug tests, he was suspended from the program indefinitely and chose to transfer to Utah. He sat out the entire 2011 season during which he reportedly failed another drug test, but instead of suiting up for the Utes in 2012, decided to enter into the NFL’s Supplemental Draft and was selected by the Browns in the second round.
Gordon was a significant contributor for Cleveland, catching 50 balls for 805 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie. He proved to be Cleveland’s best receiver and continued to improve as the season progressed. By the time the season ended, dynasty owners were penciling in Gordon’s name as a solid WR3 for 2013.
The off-season brought a bit of good and bad for Gordon. On the positive side, the Browns brought in Head Coach Rob Chudzinski along with Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner and their vertical offense tailor made for Gordon’s size and speed. But on the negative side, the NFL suspended Gordon for the first two games of the 2013 season for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. The suspension is reportedly tied to antibiotics and cough medicine that contained codeine, which is not allowed according to the league’s policy on substance abuse. The most worrying part about the suspension may be that it puts Gordon one failed drug test away from a one-year NFL ban.
Going into the off-season, Gordon was being selected in the sixth round of dynasty startups with an ADP of #62. Even after the June news of his suspension, his ADP continued to climb to #43 due to his physical ability and massive upside. By the time the preseason was in full swing, his ADP rose to an all-time high of #37, cementing him as a WR2 in most dynasty leagues. Most dynasty owners (including myself) are convinced that Gordon has WR1 upside. Skeptics point out however that there are still questions to be answered about his work ethic and maturity, not to mention his off the field decision making.
More than anything else, Gordon needs to prove that he can stay on the field, and out of Roger Goodell’s dog house going forward. If he can do that, he should fulfill that enormous potential and prove to be worthy of that high ADP.
Montee Ball, RB DEN
After one of the most productive careers by a tailback in NCAA history, Ball entered the 2013 NFL Draft as one of the most talked about prospects. Opinions on Ball varied wildly. Some thought he would become just another Wisconsin runner who couldn’t get the job done on Sundays. Others, including yours truly, thought Ball has the potential to become a RB1 relatively quickly.
Many “experts” valued Ball as a day three draft choice. John Elway and the Broncos front office didn’t agree with that evaluation, however. They chose Ball in the second round and a few weeks later, released veteran Willis McGahee, paving the way for him to make an immediate impact in Denver. Before the NFL draft, Ball’s ADP was #112 in dynasty startups, but after he was drafted, his ADP shot up to #67. Once McGahee was released, it went up even higher to #38 and now rests just lower, at #48.
Ball’s track-record as a power back with a nose for the goal line has many dynasty owners counting on him to be a RB2 as a rookie but Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno are lingering in Denver and head coach John Fox has a history of not trusting rookies. On top of that, questions have risen about Ball’s pass protection throughout training camp putting doubt on his chances to be a featured part of one of the best offenses in the NFL.
Not only does Ball have to prove he can consistently protect Peyton Manning, but he has to prove to his Head Coach he’s worth putting on the field consistently as a rookie to immediately live up to the hype. If he can do that, dynasty owners (especially those in standard scoring leagues) should be very happy with the results.
Kenbrell Thompkins, WR NE
Thompkins might be the epitome of fantasy football hype. Just a few weeks ago, many fantasy players didn’t even know his name. Undrafted out of Cincinnati, Thompkins has scratched and clawed his way up the Patriots depth chart throughout training camp.
Glowing reports out of Foxboro have sped the hype train to warp speed over the last couple of weeks. Although the most recent ADP data indicates he is being drafted at pick number #136 in startups, I have seen on Twitter that Thompkins was drafted as highly as the seventh round of a 12 team startup in the past week.
Thompkins is the leading candidate to be the starting “X” receiver opposite Danny Ammendola in New England in week one, but dynasty owners should remember he went undrafted for a reason. The Boston Herald reported he was arrested seven times prior to turning 19. Naysayers also mention the Patriots have many playmakers including Ammendola, tight end Rob Gronkowski and running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. While Tom Brady has proven that there are plenty of balls to go around in New England, projecting Thompkins as a WR2 or even a WR3 may be a little premature, especially as a rookie.
Nonetheless, Thompkins has a chance early in his career to prove those naysayers wrong. If he does, count me as surprised… but certainly not shocked.
David Wilson, RB NYG
When the Giants took Wilson with the last pick of the first round in the 2012 NFL draft, many saw him as the perfect complement to injury riddled running back Ahmad Bradshaw in New York. That certainly looked like the plan until Wilson fumbled during the first quarter of his first NFL regular season game, landing him in Tom Coughlin’s doghouse. That mistake relegated Wilson to return duties and limited reps on offense for most of the 2012 season. Wilson gained the coaching staff’s confidence as the season progressed. He ran for 358 yards on 71 carries (5.0 avg) and four touchdowns during his rookie season and proved to be an electrifying return man.
His dynasty value began to spike in February when the Giants released Bradshaw, making him the lead back. His ADP in March was #25. When the Giants didn’t sign a veteran in free agency and passed on running backs in the draft, his ADP continued to rise, getting as high as #22 in June. Due to a strong preseason, Wilson’s ADP continued to climb to #16 in August, and that was before backfield mate Andre Brown went down with a broken leg.
Wilson is incredibly explosive and plays in a dynamic offense that likes to feature a strong running game but there are still question marks in his game. Fumbling has been an issue of his going back to college and like most young runners, pass protection is a concern. Mostly, Wilson needs to prove he can hold onto the ball in the opening weeks of the 2013 season to gain the trust of Coughlin and the Giants coaching staff. If he can do that, he’ll most assuredly prove to be a top ten fantasy running back in 2013 and for years to come.
What hyped players need to prove to you that they are worthy of their buildup in 2013?
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