Mining for Paydirt: Week One
Mining for Paydirt is a deep-sleeper article geared toward your average to larger sized leagues. These players are owned in less than 35% of myfantasyleague.com leagues – they are your blue collar workers. I’m not going to give you names like Roy Helu or Isaac Redman – those aren’t the droids I’m looking for. I want the players who are on the radar of only the realest of degenerates. Players you wouldn’t think of owning in a million and one years. These will strictly be for injury and bye week fill-ins based on matchups and situation. Some may stick, some won’t. It’s the nature of the beast and I’ll be thrilled to get one or two correct a week.
Let’s do this…
Real football is here, you guys. That means fake football is back as well for you redrafters out there and I, for one, can’t be more excited to get this season started. It feels like the off-season drags on longer than the year before it. I blame Twitter for most everything in my life, but with access to the twitterverse, like-minded peoples have an outlet to talk football, both real and fake, all year long. Being fairly new to the twittering, this was my first full off-season using said device. Needless to say, I’m glued to the Twitter during my free time, whenever that is, to get my football fix.
Week one is tricky with these types of articles because most offenses run a watered down version of what their true offense will resemble . Most of you have already made arrangements for your players on suspension or those who are injured. Bye weeks don’t begin until week four so if you haven’t made prior arrangements, this article is for you, procrastinators.
Marlon Brown, WR BAL @ DEN (8% owned)
Brown wasn’t name on my radar until week three of the preseason when he caught four balls for 59 yards and a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers. He followed up that performance with another four-catch game for 79 yards and a touchdown against the St. Louis Rams. With those performances, the Ravens cut ties with sleeper Tommy Streeter and jumped up in the depth charts as the teams’ defacto #3 receiver.
Brown is a 6’5”, 205 lb. undrafted free agent out of Georgia. He caught 10 passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns throughout the preseason. He also had three dropped passes on just 13 targets. Concentration, young paduwan.
Only 18 of his 81 total routes run have come out of the slot – one of which was a touchdown. Given his size, Brown is more of an outside receiver where he can utilize his long body. Brandon Stokley will most likely man the slot in three wide receiver sets. Brown will be in on certain packages and to spell either Torrey Smith or Jacoby Jones.
Given the injuries/suspensions to the Denver defense, Joe Flacco should have plenty of time to throw the ball to open receivers. Champ Bailey has been nursing a sprained foot and is highly questionable for the Thursday Night opener. Even if he plays, he’ll be nowhere close to 100%. Von Miller will be serving his suspension and Elvis Dumervil will be playing for the other team. Smith torched the Broncos in the playoffs last season so I expect them to try and take him out of the passing game. Jones and the tight ends offer nothing for upside here, so what can Brown do for you?
Paydirt Prediction: Four receptions, 65 yards and one touchdown
Jarius Wright, WR MIN @ DET (9% owned)
The Lions defense gave up 26 passing touchdowns last season (tied for 11th most) and gave up an average of 235 yards through the air. They’ve added some pieces to the secondary by acquiring Chris Houston and Glover Quin via free agency while drafting rookie, Darius Slay in the second round. It’s going to take these new additions some time to gel. It’s the first real week of football and the secondary has had a complete overhaul.
Enter Jarius Wright.
Wright has been medically cleared to play following a concussion on August 18. He’s listed as the teams’ #3 receiver, with rookie Cordarrelle Patterson in the mix for Jerome Simpson’s job/snaps.
It’s a risky endeavor relying on anyone from the Vikings’ pass attack, but one that could pay dividends. In his last game against Detroit, Christian Ponder was 24 of 32 for 221 yards and two scores. Wright didn’t exactly flash brilliance this preseason due to the concussion that kept him out for the teams’ final two exhibition games. Before he suffered the concussion, Wright was in on 23 of the 25 first team offensive plays.
While Wright is a more natural fit in the slot (54% of his routes), he has shown the ability to get downfield on the outside. His rookie season was hampered by injuries, but he demonstrated his abilities in week ten when he caught three balls for 65 yards and a score.
Offensive coordinator, Bill Musgrave said, “The bottom line with Jarius is he knows what to do all the time.” Wright has become somewhat of a leader in the locker room at the position despite just seven NFL games to his credit. That leadership, understanding of the game and limited experience (see Patterson and Joe Webb) will earn him ample playing time in Detroit Rock City and moving forward.
Paydirt Prediction: Five receptions, 85 yards and one touchdown
Aldrick Robinson, WR WAS vs PHI (5% owned)
Robinson completed a solid preseason with seven receptions for 112 yards without the teams’ #1 quarterback, Robert Griffin III taking a single snap.
The Redskins go on the road to the City of Brotherly Love on Monday Night and the Eagles’ defense is a sieve, to say the least. Last season, their defense gave up an NFL leading 33 touchdowns via the pass and they haven’t looked much better this preseason… albeit, it’s preseason. Just so happens, one of Robinson’s 11 total receptions last year came against the Eagles when he caught a 49 yard touchdown.
He’s a burner and outside of Pierre Garcon, the teams’ biggest deep threat. He won’t get the lion’s share of snaps at the receiving position, but there will be a few deep plays specifically designed for him. With defenses needing to stay home to defend the run-option, Robinson will be primed for a long touchdown opportunity at some point in the game. It helps that RGIII is a master at throwing the deep ball, no preseason or not.
Fantasy football guru and pioneer, Matthew Berry’s bold prediction for Robinson was in the neighborhood of 850 yards and seven touchdowns for the third year pro. Berry is an HTTR homer, but I tend to agree with him. Leonard Hankerson is the sexy name people look to add, but outside of Garcon, Robinson is the other Redskin wide receiver I want to own. His coming out party begins on Monday Night.
Primetime Paydirt Prediction: Four receptions, 100 yards and one touchdown
Those are the Mining for Paydirt candidates for the first week of football. Who are yours?
