IDP Stakeout: AFC Edition
When I get bored I often find myself staring at the IDP depth charts on RotoWorld. I will read through each division from top to bottom, checking in on guys I’ve had my eyes on for a while or maybe just since the draft. It’s important to do this from time to time because, unlike the offensive side of the ball, a scheme change can totally destroy your dynasty IDP team overnight. There is nothing worse than having an elite DE1 being moved to outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. If you play in a league which has positional limits such as requiring you to roster five defensive linemen and six linebackers, it’s a double whammy. Now you have one less defensive end and too many linebackers. These players lose their value and it usually makes the most sense to cut the displaced defensive end. On the flip side, if you have an outside linebacker and the team switches to a 4-3, now you have the potential for a star defensive end from the end of your bench.
It’s not always a scheme change catching my interest, sometimes it’s a new addition through free agency or the draft. Sometimes it’s the player you drafted a year or two ago finally working his way into the starting lineup, the IDP investment finally paying off. These players are the ones that make dynasty leagues worth it on both sides of the ball.
I’m going to break this article down by conference and today we’re going to start with the AFC players who I am keeping my eye on throughout the off-season as potential IDP players of value. I’m going to watch them so close I may get a restraining order from a few of them, but if it brings me a championship in December it’ll be worth it.
Mario Williams’ Official Position Designation
There are a couple of reasons I am keeping my eye on Mario Williams. First, even though people might not agree, he looked pretty good last year as a 4-3 defensive end in Buffalo’s rebuilt defensive line. He finished tied for #12 in the league with 10.5 sacks while dealing with a mid-season wrist surgery. Second, the Bills’ new defensive coordinator, Mike Pettine, has a history of preferring a 3-4 base defense, but has been known to run multiple formations. RotoWorld’s depth chart shows the team in a base 3-4 defense and Williams as a defensive end. If it stays that way, his value remains the same – a bona fide DE1. If Mario is listed as an outside linebacker, his value tanks except in big play leagues. I’ve read reports Williams is lining up “all over the place” and expects to attack from multiple positions. Look for Williams to improve in his second season with the Bills.
The Inside Linebackers for the Bills
Quite simply, three men enter, two men leave victorious. As of right now, rookie Kiko Alonso is locked into a starting every down linebacker role and Nigel Bradham and Arthur Moats are competing to play next to him. While Alonso is the key IDP to target, Bradham is a second year guy and a player quite a few of us at DLF have our eye on – he’s quick and versatile and also has three down ability to play inside or outside. With Pettine using multiple fronts and disguising formations, versatility will be essential and Bradham and Alonso offer the most. Moats will rotate in and should be a key reserve but not a worthwhile IDP contributor.
The Bills starting Strong Safety
When George Wilson left town, it appeared Da’Norris Searcy would slide into his old spot as the starting strong safety in Buffalo, but apparently the Bills have realized Aaron Williams is not a cornerback and they’ve moved him back to safety. Williams was considered by many as the top safety in the 2011 draft class. The strong safety spot in Buffalo has been an IDP gold mine over the last couple of seasons and the winner figures to keep that tradition going. Williams offers more of a complete skill set than Searcy, but Searcy can flat out lay the wood at a jacked up 5’11, 218 lbs. The winner will be a big time IDP contributor, so keep tabs on how this is shaking out. I believe Searcy will win the job, but Williams isn’t a slouch.
Dion Jordan, DE MIA
Through free agency and the draft, the Miami Dolphins have built a very impressive defensive unit on paper. There really aren’t any position battles I’m keeping my eye on here; I just want to monitor the progress with the rookie from Oregon. Playing opposite of Cameron Wake is going to give the incredibly fast Jordan plenty of one on one opportunities to destroy quarterbacks. He ran a 4.6 second 40-yard dash at the combine with a 1.57 ten-yard split. That’s nasty. Jordan is my pick for defensive Rookie of the Year. Double digit sacks as a rookie shouldn’t be a problem, even if he’s used in a situational role.
Demario Davis, ILB NYJ
With Bart Scott no longer in town, the 2012 third round draft pick will step into the starting role for Gang Green. While Scott wasn’t a big time IDP contributor recently, it was due more to his fading abilities than scheme. Also, Scott couldn’t play in nickel packages which hurt his production but will benefit Davis’ because he excels as a three down player. Barring something unforeseen, look for reports out of Jets camp to be glowing for Davis as he should be the IDP linebacker to target in New York. The Jets offense is going to put the defense on the field a ton this year so look for big numbers too.
The Ravens’ Inside Linebackers
Now that Ray Lewis has retired, the Ravens are forced to replace a future Hall of Famer, a task easier said than done. Enter Arthur Brown, a 6’0, 241 pound versatile rookie from Kansas State. Brown is pretty much locked into the starting job already. Although he is currently recovering from a sports hernia surgery, Brown was doing drills in OTAs. He’ll play all three downs as a rookie and compete for Rookie of the Year honors. The second inside linebacker job is wide open. Competing for the honor is the incumbent Jameel McClain, who is recovering from a December spinal injury. McClain wasn’t impressive last year playing next to Ray Lewis, so the Ravens signed the Jaguars all time leader in tackles, Daryl Smith. Look for Smith to lock this job down for 2013 but his contract is only for one year. The Ravens could move on from both McClain and Smith next off-season.
The Ravens Outside Linebackers
Like I said earlier, normally 3-4 outside linebackers aren’t key IDP contributors, but there are exceptions to every rule and this is one of them. With Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil and Courtney Upshaw running a three man rotation at outside linebacker, the Ravens plan is to pound quarterback into submission. Even Gregg Williams would feel bad for opposing quarterbacks. This trio could approach a combined 30 sacks this year. The last time Dumervil played in a 3-4 defense he racked up 17 sacks, so there won’t be any growing pains transitioning for him. They’ll be pinning their ears back and attacking as soon as the whistle blows – good luck to Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger and Brandon Weeden.
The Bengals Linebackers
The only thing I know for certain is James Harrison will be starting at strong side linebacker for the Bengals. It was believed Vontaze Burfict would step into the starting middle linebacker spot until the club re-signed the perennial underachiever, Rey Maualuga. Now, according to Coach Marvin Lewis, Maualuga will remain the starting middle linebacker and Vontaze will stay on the weak side. Regardless of where they line up on first or second down, Burfict is the linebacker to target as an every down player and the heavy favorite to lead the team in tackles for the second consecutive year. Not bad for an undrafted free agent with character issues.
Taylor Mays vs. Shawn Williams
This is just a formality. The off-season depth chart usually defers to the veteran and this is what we’re seeing here. The biggest need for the Bengals defense heading into the off-season was to upgrade the putrid back end of their defense, Taylor Mays specifically, either in free agency or April’s draft. They chose the draft, selecting the hard hitting safety out of Georgia, Shawn Williams. Williams runs circles around Taylor Mays coverage wise and offers just as much pop. When week one gets here, the starters will undoubtedly be Shawn Williams and Reggie Nelson. It’s hard to believe the Bengals have big time IDP talent all over field.
The Browns Transition to the 3-4
When Ray Horton was brought in to coach the Browns defense, quite a few question marks popped up. What happens to Jabaal Sheard? Where will the pass rush come from? Can D’Qwell Jackson finally thrive in a 3-4 scheme? Well, we still don’t have all the answers. Sheard is still a fish out of water in this system. He doesn’t really have a position after registering seven sacks as a 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and the Browns don’t really have room for him at 3-4 outside linebacker after signing free agent Paul Kruger and drafting Barkevious Mingo. Kruger comes over from the Super Bowl champion Ravens after registering a career high 8.5 sacks. Mingo was the sixth overall pick in this year’s draft and will be difficult to keep off the field. He gives the Browns their most electric pass rusher since Kamerion Wimbley. Sheard may technically be the starter, but I expect him to come off the field in obvious passing situations for the rookie. On the inside, D’Qwell Jackson will be fine in Horton’s scheme. He showed his versatility last season by collecting 3.5 sacks, seven defended passes, two interceptions, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries while chipping in a defensive touchdown. Everything will run through Jackson on defense, much like the Cardinals ran through Daryl Washington. The other inside linebacker spot is wide open. It was assumed a transition to the 3-4 meant James-Michael Johnson would become a starter, but reports out of OTAs say Johnson might not even make the team, let alone start. Right now Craig Robertson is penciled in next to DQ, and its time we take it seriously. Robertson offers three down ability while Johnson is a liability in coverage. Both are second year players without a high draft pedigree tainting the competition. This is truly “may the best man win” and it seems like Robertson is comfortably in the lead.
Recovering Texans
Star inside Linebacker Brian Cushing is recovering from a torn ACL and while off-season reports have been nothing but positive, it’s difficult to get too excited before seeing him on the field. Cushing has yet to get medical clearance, but is expected to prior to training camp at the end of July. If he’s 100% healthy, he’s back on the radar as a sure fire LB1. The other ailing Texan is newly signed Ed Reed. Reed is no stranger to the injury report. There is always something nagging with him nowadays and he refuses to play until 100% healthy. Reed has long been off the IDP radar in my opinion and a new home changes nothing for me. Look for rookie D.J. Swearinger much sooner rather than later.
The Colts’ “Other” Inside Linebacker
At this time last year, Pat Angerer was being drafted as a high LB2, low LB1 in start up drafts, then he broke his foot in the preseason and never recovered. Former CFL standout Jerrell Freeman stepped into Angerer’s position and never looked back – he recorded 145 total tackles and was an IDP waiver wire gem for most. Now Angerer is left to battle Kavell Conner to play second fiddle to Freeman. Conner wasn’t an IDP asset last year (he recorded only 54 total tackles) and this position doesn’t figure to produce two quality IDP assets. I would still draft Angerer late with hopes of him regaining his pre-injury form but only if the price is right. Conner belongs on the waiver wire except in deep leagues.
The Jaguars Exciting Rookie
I’m not talking about Denard Robinson, I’m talking about strong safety Johnathan Cyprien out of Florida International. At 6’0, 217 pounds, Cyprien has the perfect NFL skill set to make an impact in every facet of the game. He combines speed (4.5 second 40-yard dash) with strength (18 reps of 225) to knock you out. Look for Cyprien to be everywhere for the Jaguars. He should be the first rookie safety drafted in IDP leagues.
The Titans MIKE Battle
If I told you at this time last year Colin McCarthy would be battling Moise Fokou for the starting middle linebacker job in Tennessee, you probably wouldn’t read anything I wrote again. That’s exactly what’s happening, though. McCarthy was a huge liability on the field versus the run and the pass last season after returning from ankle surgery. McCarthy finished 2011 strong and became an IDP linebacker to target, but 2012 was a nightmare with a high ankle sprain and then a concussion. Now NFL journeyman Fokou is running ahead of him in OTAs. If McCarthy is healthy and the injuries are behind him, he’ll win the job because he’s ridiculously more talented than Fokou. He has to stay on the field though because you can’t tackle anyone from the trainer’s table. Keep an eye on this one.
The Broncos Pass Rush
Due to a problem nobody has had in 15 years, the Broncos lost Elvis Dumervil due to fax machine malfunction. Allegedly, Dumervil’s agent didn’t get the contract faxed in time and Dumervil became a free agent, eventually signing with the Baltimore Ravens. With egg on their face, the Broncos have to replace the ferocious pass rush opposite Von Miller. The leading candidate is second year player Derek Wolfe. Wolfe registered six sacks as a rookie, but could be overwhelmed by being “the guy” and without the presence of Dumervil. Von Miller will get his but Wolfe will be lucky to improve on the six sacks he tallied last year.
Is Nate Irving Really the Broncos Starting MIKE LB?
Yes. Yes he is. After spending 2011 and 2012 as an IDP sleeper behind D.J. Williams, Irving finally gets a chance to start for the Broncos. He won’t be an every down linebacker though; he’ll come off the field in favor of Von Miller and Wesley Woodyard. While Irving does have some appeal as a two down thumper, I would look for someone with more upside barring an injury to Woodyard.
What’s Up With Andy Reid and Akeem Jordan?
What IS up with Andy Reid and Akeem Jordan? Jordan is nothing special but for some reason Andy Reid has a fever…and the only prescription… is more Akeem Jordan (Christopher Walken voice.) Right now it’s being reported the Chiefs are in the running for former Packers linebacker Desmond Bishop. If he signs, this is irrelevant, but right now Jordan is competing with fellow nobody Nico Johnson to start next to tackle monster Derrick Johnson. Neither one of these players are worth a roster spot as they’ll probably end up rotating in and out with each other. The best case scenario for everyone is Bishop signing and ending this early.
Where Does Rookie Sio Moore End Up?
It’s been reported rookie Sio Moore could lineup everywhere from weak side linebacker, middle linebacker, strong side linebacker, to hot dog vendor. The guy is the definition of versatility. That is good news because the Raiders are hurting for talent and the more versatility they have the more they can hide their many deficiencies. I expect Moore to make an impact as a rookie IDP linebacker, I just don’t know from where. He should see every down linebacker snaps from day one with Kevin Burnett.
Will Manti Te’o Play Passing Downs?
Full disclosure, I’m a Notre Dame fan and I have been a huge Te’o fan for years now. The scandal really punched me in the gut. I’ve watched him make unbelievable game deciding plays for the Irish and thought he was unstoppable. I also saw Alabama’s march to victory in the National Title game where Te’o couldn’t have been found by Seal Team Six and Google Maps. His entire life was mocked and he’s been a punchline ever since, but the truth remains – he’s a heck of a football player and will be an IDP asset for the Chargers. The real question is whether he comes off the field in Nickel packages. My gut says no, I really believe he and Butler can form a poor man’s version of what the Niners do with Patrick Willis and NaVarro Bowman. Of course people will snicker and make stupid jokes when you draft him because of his “girlfriend,” but you can laugh at them when you steal a solid LB2 in the rookie draft.
Marcus Gilchrist is the Starting Strong Safety?
Gilchrist has struggled as a cornerback so the Chargers’ answer is to move him to strong safety next to Eric Weddle. Undersized by NFL strong safety standards, Gilchrist is going to have to hold off 2012 third round pick Brandon Taylor once he recovers from a torn ACL – this battle will remain ongoing throughout the offseason. I believe he’s just keeping the seat warm until Taylor is healthy.
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- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Five - October 10, 2018
