NFL Draft Primer: Ranking the Running Back Destinations
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We’re closing in on the  2013 NFL Draft and the free agency period is finally starting to wind down – this allows us to stop and take a clear view of the player landscape yet again. While many teams addressed their perceived needs at running back through free agency, there are still many more who will likely turn to the draft to fill theirs. Players like Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard and a host of others would be nice additions to NFL teams. For complete scouting information, make sure you use our Draft Tool and scour through the Premium Content archive for complete breakdowns of the class.
One thing we’ve learned over the years is the draft is extremely unpredictable. Just when you think you have everything figured out, a surprise team seems to take one of the prized backs, throwing dynasty league drafters into panic mode. With that in mind, let’s take a look at all the teams and consider the strength of the possible destinations for running backs.
Before we start taking a look at these spots, there are few things to consider.
First, the offensive lines for the teams were considered, but not the driving factor behind these different tiers. While an offensive line is certainly a huge key for a running back, the free agency period in future years or a key injury can take a great one and turn it into a mediocre one pretty quickly. So, while they were certainly taken into account, don’t expect the teams to be ranked strictly in order of their offensive line prowess.
Second, both immediate and future production was considered. While some teams offer a quick opportunity to play, some of those aren’t exactly known for historically great fantasy production. Many others may not offer immediate playing time, but offer a great long term outlook. We’re talking dynasty leagues here, so everything must be considered.
Finally, the running back depth charts of all these teams was factored in. While some highly ranked teams already have runners in place, they may be aging quickly. Remember, we’re considering the best landing spots for a combination of both immediate and future production here.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at all 32 teams and see where they rank as far as landing spots for running backs. Each of the teams is put into a tier based on good (four stars) to terrible (one star).
FOUR STARS
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have been kicking the tires on several free agents, including Chris Wells and Ahmad Bradshaw. The current depth chart includes BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cedric Peerman, the recently re-signed Bernard Scott and Dan “Boom” Herron – that’s not exactly the most imposing group ever assembled. Green-Ellis was serviceable last year as he rushed for 1,094 yards on 278 carries, good for 3.9 yards per tote. However, he’ll be 28 by the time the season rolls around and the Bengals are in need of finding a more dynamic playmaker to make defenses play them a little more honestly and free up some room for AJ Green to make plays. “Serviceable” is simply not going to be good enough for the Bengals much longer.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are in need for a back for the first time in quite a while. At this point, the depth chart includes the underwhelming trio of Jonathan Dwyer, Isaac Redman and Baron Batch. Pittsburgh has also shown interest in Bradshaw and are suddenly in need for a lot on offense after losing Mike Wallace to the Dolphins and Rashard Mendenhall to the Cardinals. The Steelers are a team to watch on draft day as they suddenly have a ton of pressing issues to address, including their backfield.
New York Jets
The Jets have been a fantasy wasteland recently, but it’s hard to deny the opportunity a new back could have here. Career backup Mike Goodson is currently the favorite to start, but he’ll be pushed in training camp by the likes of Bilal Powell, Joe McKnight and Lex Hilliard. While this landing spot may not yield great short-term results in dynasty leagues, you have to pay attention to a situation where a highly drafted runner could actually be their future focal point on offense. Sad, but true.
THREE STARS
Indianapolis Colts
Color me skeptical on the combination of Vick Ballard, Donald Brown and Delone Carter helping Andrew Luck lead the Colts to the promised land. Â Ballard showed some promise last season, but he still averaged under four yards per carry and seems to be more of a volume runner. While the Colts are unlikely to address the position through the draft, this could be a great future landing spot for a dynamic young runner since Luck is going to command most of the defensive attention for the next decade.
St. Louis Rams
With Steven Jackson out of the picture, the door is wide open for Daryl Richardson or Isaiah Pead to truly emerge. Many dynasty owners are completely dismissing Pead after his disappointing rookie, but that could be a mistake. This has all the makings of a committee attack for the short term, but a more explosive running back could find a nice home here in the future. I havent’ seen enough from Pead or Richardson to sell me on a bright and cheery long-term outlook.
Green Bay Packers
Many dynasty owners will be pounding their fists on their computer desks saying this should be a “four star” destination, but it’s really barely a “three star” location in my mind. While it’s clear they have a need after losing out on the aforementioned Jackson, the Packers just don’t commit enough to the run to make this is a prime location. While it’s conceivable (even likely) a new rookie could beat out DuJuan Harris, James Starks and company to earn the right to be the workhorse for Green Bay, I’d guarantee a back in Green Bay would be overdrafted in both start-ups and rookie drafts and leave their owners disappointed in the process. I can’t just dismiss this locale, but the Packers aren’t going to pay Aaron Rodgers a “billion” dollars to see him hand the ball off 30 times a game.
Atlanta Falcons
A running back in Atlanta wouldn’t have a tremendous amount of short term value with Steven Jackson in the fold, but it’s also obvious Jackson’s career isn’t going to last forever. Jacquizz Rodgers is best suited for a change of pace role and this offense is going to be very good for a very long time. This is a sneaky good location for patient owners.
Dallas Cowboys
I love DeMarco Murray when he’s healthy. The fact I have to even include “when he’s healthy” tells you all you need to know about Murray and the running back situation for the Cowboys. With Felix Jones out of the mix, there’s a real opportunity here. The Cowboys have Lance Dunbar and Phillip Tanner behind Murray, but it’s pretty tough to see either of them being the future in “Big D.”
Oakland Raiders
Darren McFadden is a stud and should thrive in the system this season. Unfortunately, McFadden has the same problem as Murray in the fact you can’t count on him playing sixteen games each season. With the underwhelming Rashad Jennings and Jeremy Stewart (sleeper alert) behind him, this could be a good spot for a talented back to land. You may not get much early, but we’re talking dynasty leagues here.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Maurice Jones-Drew is coming off a nasty foot injury and is in the last year of a five-year, $31 million contract he signed in 2009. While the Jags will likely lock him up after the season, MJD is 28 years old at this point, so it’s no given that happens with all the needs the Jaguars have. The underrated Justin Forsett is the backup, but he’s more of a complementary back. If a new rookie comes in and impresses early, they could be groomed for a nice future role with or without the aging MJD in the mix.
TWO STARS
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins seem to be going all in on Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas this season. Miller is currently being drafted as the RB18, which is a little too high for my taste. He certainly has talent and will get every opportunity to succeed, but that’s a pretty significant investment dynasty league owners are making in someone they’ve never really seen succeed at this level. However, Thomas has been mostly a bust throughout his tenure in Miami and Miller should get his chances. Any player taken by the Dolphins will have to beat out two pretty young backs to carve out significant time.
Arizona Cardinals
Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Williams are all set to battle it out to be the workhorse in Arizona this season. While Mendenhall is the favorite, it’s no certainty he wins that job. However, each of these backs has some serious question marks. Williams has not been able to stay on the field and Mendenhall hasn’t exactly been spectacular since coming back from a torn ACL. A running back drafted by the Cardinals could also have sneaky value in dynasty leagues.
Detroit Lions
For years, we’ve described the Lions backfield as the place running backs go to die. Unfortunately, that’s been the case for the likes of James Stewart, Jahvid Best, Kevin Smith and a host of others over the years. The Lions have brought in Reggie Bush and have Mikel Leshoure on the roster, but Bush has shown a tendency to get injured and Leshoure hasn’t panned out to be the game breaking running back Detroit hoped they had when they drafted him. While this spot wouldn’t yield great short-term value, a future starter will be unearthed here shortly.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos were interested in Rashard Mendenhall before he signed with the Cardinals and have also shown some interest in Bradshaw, indicating they’re not content with the combination of Willis McGahee, Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman. If the Broncos choose a runner early, McGahee could be cut and they could be a starter in an explosive offense. The only downside is this is likely going to be a mess of a committee situation for the foreseeable future.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings don’t have anything much behind Adrian Peterson other than Toby Gerhart, who has been pretty disappointing thus far. You could stash someone on your bench, thinking they could be the heir apparent to Peterson, but it’s doubtful the Vikings would draft someone this year thinking the same.
New York Giants
It looks like the Giants are all in on the combination of David Wilson and Andre Brown. This situation mirrors that of the Dolphins in that neither has shown any long-term success in the league, but it also mirrors Miami in the fact they’re going to be given every opportunity to do so.
Washington Redskins
I’ll give you two stars if you believe in the curse of Mike Shanahan and because I’m not a fan of Roy Helu, but I truly believe this is the Alfred Morris show for the long haul.
Houston Texans
There is legitimate concern about the workload of Arian Foster and the shine is wearing off Ben Tate a little as well. Any back taken by Houston would strictly be a long-term project, but patience could be rewarded. LOTS of patience.
New England Patriots
The Pats seem set with Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen manning the backfield in the short and long-term. Combine that with the fickle nature of Bill Belichick and the sneaky play of Brandon Bolden and there’s not a lot to love here. Â For those who believe in the Belichick curse, I’ll give you a little leeway, but only because I like to use the word leeway.
San Diego Chargers
When you talk about players losing value in a hurry, the conversation likely starts and ends with Ryan Mathews. Unfortunately, Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead further cloud the backfield situation in San Diego for him, setting up another disappointing season on the horizon. Mathews is likely running out of chances, but he’s still a talented and young player. It’s now or never, though.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have one of the most dynamic players in the world in CJ Spiller, but they could have a need for a player to replace Fred Jackson as a complement here soon. There are some doubts if Spiller can hold up over an entire season and Tashard Choice also isn’t the long-term answer as a change of pace back in Buffalo.
ONE STAR
Chicago Bears
Matt Forte and Michael Bush are entrenched as the current and future backfield for the Bears. It would be pretty difficult for any rookie to make noise with these two ahead of them, especially with Forte locked up until 2016.
Kansas City Chiefs
Jamaal Charles should be in PPR heaven with Andy Reid at the helm. Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray have some ability as well. It’s tough to see much of an opportunity here with Charles making plays each and every week.
San Francisco 49ers
Frank Gore, LaMichael James, Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon. You do the math.
Seattle Seahawks
Marshawn Lynch is amazingly still just 26 years old and Robert Turbin showed he could carry the load if Lynch ever went down with an injury. The Seahawks suddenly have an embarrassment of riches on offense and there’s really no scenario available to see a young back carving out a significant role for Seattle any time soon.
Tennessee Titans
This team is going to revolve around Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene gives them a power (in theory) option behind him. Jamie Harper is still in the mix as well, so this would be a mess of a situation for a new runner.
Baltimore Ravens
It’s pretty tough  to envision a scenario where a running back can do much with Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce on the roster.
New Orleans Saints
This is already a total disaster.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Chip Kelly offense is going to revolve around LeSean McCoy in the backfield and even if he were to miss time, Bryce Brown showed enough last year to easily be second in line for carries.
Cleveland Browns
You think anyone is taking many carries away from Trent Richardson?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ditto for Doug Martin.
Carolina Panthers
They’ll probably draft a rookie running back just on general priniciple.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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