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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1: Already pulled the trigger, what do you think?  Gave: Percy Harvin ($1.55,1), Daniel Thomas (cheap,2), Jordan Shipley (RFA), 2013 1.02/2014 2nd for Doug Martin ($2,4) and Jacoby Ford (cheap,1).  Jonathan in Kuala Lumpur

Note: These are the contracts at the start of next season.

You didn’t mention your salary cap, but I’m assuming these are very inexpensive contracts on both Harvin and Martin.  And that the 1.02 will come with an equally favorable price/length.

Assuming the guy taking on Harvin will be able to use his RFA tag (or franchise tag if you have one in this league) before the start of 2014, I think this is a pretty balanced deal.  Jordan Shipley, Daniel Thomas and Jacoby Ford are all of value in a 32-team league.  But the deal hinges on Harvin/picks for Martin.  Plus, the other owner’s ability to keep Harvin beyond 2013.

You’re certainly getting what appears right now to be the most valuable player, but I think the other team has done a nice job of buying low on Harvin.  Harvin’s year has been rather disappointing solely because of injury.  Before he was hurt, Harvin was a fantasy difference maker.  I fully expect him to return to form when healthy.  Harvin will be in my top-5 WRs for 2013 start-ups.

Depending on team construction and how one values the 1.02, I can see either side of this deal.  I’d rather get your side because locking in a cheap RB is a great foundation in SC leagues.  However, it’s quite likely that the 1.02 will rise in value at draft time and become a nice bargaining chip for the other owner.

2: What is the value of Chris Ivory as it stands today?  I was offered a pick that would 1.07-1.09.  I turned it down.  My thinking is there is 0% chance he is back with NO.  If he were to start on ATL, GB, Pitt or NYJ he is much more valuable.  Do you see him getting an opportunity next year?  Is my evaluation way off? – Ryan in MN

First off, I’m not sure why you think there is zero chance Chris Ivory’s back in New Orleans.  He’s an RFA next year and therefore subject to the tender process.  Almost no players who get tendered change teams.  So I suppose you’re saying you expect the Saints to let him walk.  Maybe/maybe not.  They surprised me this year when they carried five active running backs.  Plus, NFL teams seem to be stockpiling cheap running backs more than ever.  Look at teams like Carolina and Oakland.  I don’t think you can assume he’s gone.  He might be, but you need to factor in the risk that you’re wrong about this.

From time to time, RBs change teams and become much more valuable – Michael Turner is an obvious example.  Other recent ones are Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush and Marshawn Lynch.  The one thing they all have in common is we knew for certain they were super gifted athletes.  The only thing holding them back was the system or competition for touches.  When given the chance and a change of scenery, things popped.  While I like what I see from Ivory, I don’t think he’s on par with that group.  My bet would be that all of the teams you mention would use him as a committee back and he’d get 50% of the touches at very best.

I don’t think there’s a clear cut answer to this one.  I’d probably have taken the pick because I think there are a lot of unknowns around Ivory: will he change teams, if so to where and then how would he be used.  I suppose you could argue all those same unknowns exist around the pick.  You’d be right about that.  What I will say is that the best moves I’ve made in dynasty have been ones where I saw something in a player that I liked and I put my money where my mouth was.  So good luck and I hope Ivory is a starter for you next year.

3.) Took over an orphan rebuild where my best RB is Wells.  I won two games and have the 1.01.  I’ve been offered Chris Givens/3.05 for Cutler.  I want to take it as I plan to use the 1.01 on the best quarterback available.  Thoughts? – Brad in Columbus, OH

I’m going to assume this is the STL Chris Givens.  There are actually two WRs in the NFL named Chris Givens.  Strange, I know.  But not as strange as the confusion caused by Jordan Cameron and Cameron Jordan.  But I digress.

I think the deal’s fine if you like it.  In a 12-team league, Jay Cutler is at best a QB2/committee guy.  While only missing one game, he’s still mired in the mid-20s in quarterback scoring for this season.  I’m not sure why we’d expect that to change dramatically going forward.  Cutler continues to be overvalued by many simply because they have some vague recollection of 2008 when he put up monster numbers (in 2008 terms).  Cutler is kind of worthless in a rebuild.  Givens at least gives you hope.

You mention in your note that you also think by the time your team is ready to contend, Cutler will be on his last legs.  That part I don’t agree with.  I took over a team two years ago where my best running back was LaDainian Tomlinson.  Yeah, that was pretty bad.  I assumed it would take half a decade to rebuild, but it really hasn’t.  My team isn’t a legit contender, but it’s teetering around .500 these days.  Still a work in progress.  You may find that your rebuild goes more quickly than you expect.  However, I’m fine to dump Cutler for the reasons above.

Finally, you say that you intend to take the best available quarterack with the 1.01.  If that’s truly your plan, I’d strongly recommend shopping the 1.01 for an existing quarterback (do so at draft time).  It’s generally quite bad to target a specific position in rookie drafts.  You’re best served to rank your players – either in tiers or in order – and then take the best player available when you are on the clock.  If we were talking about Andrew Luck, I’d say fine.  You can take him over Trent Richardson if you want, whatever.  But there isn’t an Andrew Luck in the 2013 class.  It’s extremely likely in my opinion that the best dynasty player in the draft will be a WR.  If you’re dead set against taking a WR, trading the pick is the wise move.

4: What is Ryan Broyles now worth in terms of a 2013 first?  Jason in Oregon

He’s worth a lot to me.  And I say that without knowing if your league is PPR or not.

Personally, I’d give any pick after about 1.06 for Ryan Broyles.  I would have gone a high as the 1.04 before the injury this Sunday.  Very sad.  But I still think this is his job when healthy.  He knows the rehab process and the risk of re-injury is fairly low.  He should come at a discount now given the risk and timeline.

I think Broyles might be better than the rookie you will get with the 1.03 pick, but those top selections always carry extra value.  Dynasty owners tend to think of the top-3 rookie picks as a special class of picks and pay a premium.  My guess is that at draft time you’d get more in trade for a top-3 pick than Broyles.  Certainly given the injury.

Broyles integrated himself in to the offense nicely and Titus Young has gift wrapped the starter position for him.  Obviously his upside is capped by Megatron, but remember the days of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin?  That’s what I can envision here.  Megatron putting up big numbers off of amazing plays and touchdowns, while Broyles quietly is in the top-5 in the league in receptions and yards.

As a side note, I’d be very concerned at this point if I owned Titus Young.  I think he’s exposed himself to the possibility of being the whipping boy for all of Detroit’s behavior issues.  I doubt he has much trade value so I’m not sure what you can do if you own him.  But I wouldn’t go in to 2013 assuming he’s a reliable WR3, that’s for sure.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

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Flying Dutchman
9 years ago

I have to tough lineup questions for you:

My starting RB/WR’s are AP, Charles, Morris, Dem.Thomas, Cruz, Nicks. We also get to start a flex option that can be a RB, WR, or TE. I was hoping D.Wilson would have some value to put in to my flex spot but it looks like Coughlin is going to cap his touches until 2013 like he does with every rookie. That said I have to chose between D.Alexander, D.Moore, and J.Gordon. I believe my choice should be DX since he plays Pitt w/o top corner Ike…what do you think?

2nd decision is my TE position which I’m pretty weak at. Choices are M.Bennett or B.Myers. I’m thinking Bennett playing a weak NO defense…thoughts?

Non-ppr.

Thanks

Flying Dutchman
9 years ago

I also have a trade looking to get some debate with…I have already made the trade but want to get some insight on what people think.

Salary cap is $220.

I traded R.Rice(contract is expired at years end. next year he would prob be around $60 through RFA), D.Bowe($26 signed for 2 more years. kinda expensive for the situation he’s in), and my 2013 1st rounder(should be last or 2nd to last pick)

I got Dem.Thomas($20 singed for 4 more years) and V.Cruz($16 signed for 3 more years).

I was pretty stacked at RB with AP, Charles, Morris, Wilson, and R.Bush so I could afford to trade Rice.

Thoughts?

Tim
Reply to  Flying Dutchman
9 years ago

I think it’s a good trade for both sides assuming the other guy is fairly confident he can retain Rice.

I think you did well to dump Bowe’s contract. He might become more valuable elsewhere, but that’s just too pricey.

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  Flying Dutchman
9 years ago

You gave up the best player, but you got financial flexibility and long term contracts.

You also got two players that will be good for many years to come, whereas Rice has a shorter career path in my mind due to being a RB. I don’t know how long you can control Thomas and Cruz after their contracts expire, but if you can extend them or franchise them like he is doing with Rice, you definitely benefit from them being young WR’s.

I would definitely do that with the RB’s that you have. Good trade!

KlyePod
Reply to  Flying Dutchman
9 years ago

I love that trade for you as well. Enjoy your years of your wideouts being spoon fed by the Manning bro’s.

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  KlyePod
9 years ago

So, you dumped around 80 bucks of cap space, while taking on 36. You saved 44 dollars.

In a contract league, this type of trade is absolutely brilliant, it is the kind of move that seperates the perennial contenders from the flock, and is a cornerstone of my personal dynasty philosophy.

A good way to look at it is like this, after all is said and done, not only will you have Cruz and Thomas with, extended contracts, you will also have the player(s) that you have bought at the free agent auction with the extra money. Depending on who is available in the off season, that could very well turn into a Matthew Stafford, Brandon Marshall or Rob Gronkowski.

Will Finnegan
9 years ago

Tim, In my 16 team full keeper. I own the 1st rd pick of the team that will most likely win it all this yr, I own a middle of the rd 2nd and 4 3rd rd picks (mostly spread throughout the rd)we have a 5 rd R/FA draft.

My WR core is atrocious, Cruz Torrey Smith and Mo Sanu

My plan was to spend my draft picks on Wr’s but from what I’ve heard the draft is more “lottery picks” than AJ Green’s and Julio Jones’.
So would I be better off moving some of the picks for a veteran WR, if so, who would you suggest going after

Tim
Reply to  Will Finnegan
9 years ago

I’m down on this draft class, but “lottery pick” is a bit harsh. One of either Keenan Allen, Justin Hunter or Robert Woods will emerge (probably Hunter). I’d hang tight until draft time unless you need a player for the playoff run.

Will Finnegan
Reply to  Tim
9 years ago

no my wrs are fine and then im starting hernandez pettigrew on the back as my te & flex spots

clarion contrarion
9 years ago

hey jason regardless of what the “expert” told you
ryan broyles is not worth 1:6 or any 1st round pick – he has 2 year running streak of blowing out his knees … he likely is a slot rec at best and oklahoma wr talent always underwhelms in the league. I would be hard pressed to accept him for the 2:6.
He did compile huge numbers at OU BUT lighting up the big 12 and making a difference in big boy football is a big jump.
be smart do your own homework and pick a solid player at 1:6

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  clarion contrarion
9 years ago

I have Denario Alexander in my main league, and his knees have been blown out more than a bay window in tornado alley. I certainly would not trade him for the 1.6 in this draft class. Agree to disagree.

As far as Tim Stafford goes, I’ve been coming here for several years, and he is usually right on the money, as good a fantasy football prognosticator as anyone I’ve seen on the internet.

clarion contrarion
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

I hear you loud annd clear . I scooped up alexander as soon as the chargers signed him remembering his talent at mizzou but there is a huge difference in taking a flyer when signing scraps off of the waiver wire for the end of your bench & the 1:6 . I think with that pick you can get cordy patterson , joseph randle or terrence williams and I will do that all day before I take a shot on a guy with more catastrophic knee injuries than big games in the big leagues . Mr Stafford may be the best in the land I do not know but I do know a great prospect w/ no injuries is far more attractive to me than one w/ 2 blown up kness.

Cyrus Miller
Reply to  clarion contrarion
9 years ago

Past injuries do not predict future injuries.

Yes, blowing out both ACL’s is bad. Unfortunate timing, too, as now he will be rehabbing to start next season as well.

That said, it is common to come back from torn ACL’s and be close to as productive as before. Ryan Broyles was looking really good, I don’t care what history OU WR’s have and I am not basing my thoughts on what he did in college. He put up number in the NFL and plays perfectly across from Calvin.

My only concern with him is that they might need WR help before he is healthy, so they might draft a WR to replace Titus Young.

(And I am not just an optimistic Broyles owner, in my favorite league I have Harvin, Dez, Andre, Colston, Jennings, Wayne all ahead of Broyles, so I don’t even need him to produce.)

SJ
9 years ago

Ive said it before and I’ll say it again, now is the perfect time to pick up T.Young.

No one wants him now. Everyone’s in the same opinion of giving up on him. Being dumb and sabotaging his career is one thing. But hell still be in the league. We were all high on his talent in the offseason, and he even played on a bum leg that needed surgery and produced to some degree. I think hell be given another chance. Why not buy him now, use the general consensus to your advantage. I’d still take the chance on him for a mid round pick.

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