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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1). I’ve been hanging on to Jerome Simpson, is he worth it? LP in Minnesota

Jerome Simpson is absolutely worth holding on to.  This season has been marred by the suspension and the injury, but hang tight.

The Vikings are very, very thin at receiver and Simpson is easily the second best one they have on the team.  Also, Christian Ponder is developing nicely and has to be a pleasant surprise to Vikings fans.  Simpson is a physically gifted player in a relatively nice situation – that’s exactly what I want in a bench depth receiver in my dynasty leagues.  It’s hard to imagine there are any players with more value sitting out there on your waiver wire.

2.) I’ve been offered Matty Ice and a second for Percy Harvin.  My other quarterbacks are Schaub, Wilson and Smith.  Should I take it?  – Matt in San Jose

That’s a motley crew for sure at quarterback.  And while I would be trying my best to do something to fix that, giving up Percy Harvin would be close to my last choice.

Harvin has developed in to an every week surefire, must-start player.  One of the few guys I don’t even bother thinking about match-up.  He’s in my lineup if he’s healthy.  Coming in to the season, I had Harvin right around the break point between a WR1 and a WR2.  I underrated him.  Depending on your taste, Harvin should be in the discussion with players like Julio Jones, Hakeem Nicks and Larry Fitzgerald.  The Vikings simply find ways to get him the ball either in the passing game or as a change of pace running back – that’s fantastic for fantasy.

I’ve been equally impressed by Matt Ryan’s development.  The promise of 2011 and all the weapons have gelled, so 2012 has been a star caliber performance for Ryan and the Falcons as a whole.  Ryan also has achieved must-start status.  Plus, I see no reason to think his stats have been fluky or can’t be consistently achieved.

The problem is, especially in a ten team league, I don’t put the value on quarterback that I put on a stud WR1.  Harvin is going to be a first round pick in many, many start-ups next year.  I can’t say the same for Ryan.  This is especially true after the relatively weak starts for the borderline first rounders of this year – Matt Stafford and Cam Newton.

My advice would be to go after a player who isn’t on fire right now.  Although he’s certainly not Matt Ryan, I’d test the market on Eli Manning and see if I could get him more cost effectively.  You could also see if the Matt Stafford owner is willing to sell low.

3.) Would you trade Willis McGahee ($3,1) for CJ2K ($11,3) in a $60 cap league?  I’m in first place, but I have Murray who went down with an injury. – Grant in Australia

Probably not.

I wouldn’t want that much of my cap space tied up on a player I don’t fully trust.  That’s stud running back money and CJ2K (or whatever he is) isn’t a stud fantasy back any more.

That said, these questions are a little tough to answer without knowing all the ins and outs of your league.  I would be a little more inclined to do this deal if I knew for instance that there will be no stud running backs for auction in the preseason next year.  If all the solid backs are under contract, then CJ2K might be your best option.  He’s certainly better than nothing, but that would be an unusual situation in most SC leagues.

Willis McGahee isn’t the sexiest player in fantasy, but he grinds out the stats week in and week out.  I wouldn’t be thrilled to be starting him, but there are far worse options getting started by teams every week.

I think in this case I wouldn’t worry about next year right now and just roll with “What’s you talkin bout Willis.”  That nickname is probably too long to stick.

4.) Is it too early to reevaluate Matthew Stafford’s dynasty potential?  I can acquire him by giving up Andy Dalton, Willis McGahee and a second round pick, but Dalton has been far and away the better quarterback this year.  Dan in Milwaukee

I was wondering when I’d start to get the Matt Stafford questions.  Dan, yours is representative of several others I received in the mailbag.

It’s never too early to re-evaluate a player, but it’s far too early to react to Stafford’s slow start.  You should be evaluating players constantly, but not reacting constantly.  If one looks at Stafford’s actual production (vs. the noise out there) it hasn’t been all that bad.  He’s not winning you fantasy games, but he’s not killing you either.  If this is really the worst it can get, I’m fine with that because we have seen the upside already.  It’s not promise, it’s happened in the past.  I will say that having watched many of Stafford’s snaps he looks a little shaky to me.  I’m not exactly sure what’s going on, but I trust it will get sorted out.  Stafford is a star caliber talent and ultimately that will reemerge.

For me, Andy Dalton is the exact opposite.  He’s not a star caliber talent and he’s playing above his head.  Dalton has had a very favorable schedule and has made the most of it.  That’s good, but it’s not sustainable.  Dalton is probably a sell high right now although I think most savvy dynasty owners would see through that attempt.  Side note:  AJ Green owners, please don’t panic because I’m saying Dalton is a sell high.  Green will get his and always will.

I think the deal on the table is a great one for you.  You’re adding an old running back and a crap shoot pick to a QBBC guy to get a top rated passer.  I wouldn’t let this one slip by just because Stafford hasn’t scored a bunch of touchdowns yet this year.

5.) Is it safe to drop Brian Quick or should I just stash him for a while longer?Eli in Virginia

Absolutely not.

I have been, and continue to be, mystified by how dynasty owners are approaching Brian Quick.  There was an expectation in the preseason that he was going to come in to the league and immediately be a viable fantasy starter.  My only guess is that was a product of looking at the Rams depth chart and assessing that he was the best receiver on the team.  That might be true but it neglects to factor in that Quick is easily the most raw receiver of any of the early round NFL selections.

I repeatedly cautioned people that Quick was a long term prospect and a risky one at that.  If you followed the Senior Bowl coverage, you know he struggled in the practices working against other top caliber talent.  It’s worth noting the practices are far more important tools for evaluating the players than the actual game itself.

If you believed Quick was a solid NFL prospect (and you must since you drafted him), he’s a hold.  Quick has been on the field for a total of only 49 plays and has been targeted only seven times.  I can’t imagine that’s enough tape to be able to say that whatever you saw in him in college and the draft process was wrong.

6.) What constitutes a true “dynasty league?” Tony in Vicksburg

When we are talking dynasty football, we tend to mean a league where all of the players are kept from year to year.  There is a start-up draft much like a redraft league draft and then in subsequent years the draft only consists of NFL rookies.

A keeper league is similar to a dynasty league but in the keeper league some number of the veterans are tossed back in to the draft pool each year and are drafted along with the rookies in a “mixed rookie free agent draft.”  You may hear the term “deep keeper league” – that’s a league where the majority of the players are kept like dynasty.

The dynasty format forces owners to take a long term view to fantasy but also balance that against winning their league now.  It’s far more complex (and we think rewarding) than your normal redraft league.

Hope you join us and for more information check out this primer.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

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Ray Voeller
9 years ago

I’ve thrown this idea around just curious on your thoughts.
Trade Matt Ryan for Matt Stafford. I own Julio Jones don’t care for qb/wr same team combos … ya it’s great when Rodgers/Jordy combine for 6 tds … but not so great when they combine for zero. Should I be looking for Stafford plus for Ryan or is a straight up 1 for 1 worth it ? Lastly is trade just a bad idea?

Ken Dogson
Reply to  Ray Voeller
9 years ago

Keep Ryan.

If you don’t like having him with Julio, move Julio. You’ll extract more value that way.

kiddragonsoft
9 years ago

I’m contemplating dropping simpson for josh gordon. i think gordon can be the #1 on this team while simpson is a mere field stretcher. is this a wise choice?

Ken Dogson
Reply to  kiddragonsoft
9 years ago

Simpson will never be more than the 3rd or 4th option for Ponder. I’d go with Gordon because of the upside, though he is a risk.

phil
9 years ago

what does everyone think about darryl richardson? hes way fast er than sjax ever hoped of being and at about 5 ft 10 200pnds hes not “little”….is HE the heir apparant? or are they just letting pead learn? what does everyone think about this?

Duck
Reply to  phil
9 years ago

I like Richardson, Thinking about offering up Mendenhall for him in a start up dynasty. wish i’d grabbed him this yr instead of B.Powell and V.Ballard.

Duck
9 years ago

Is it time to drop Greg Little? I have Green, A.Brown, Decker, Edelman ( who I think,(hope) is in Welkers role next yr. B.Quick is also available and if i drop Little I could snatch him?

Ken Dogson
9 years ago

Dalton is playing above his head?

What a bizarre comment.

He is what his stats say he is.

JohnnyBoy
Reply to  Ken Dogson
9 years ago

In my league Dalton is currently the 7th highest total fantasy scorer. So far he has only played 1 top-20 defense(220 yds 0TD 1INT) and only managed 3 games where he threw for more than 245 yards. His stats against the Browns this week were 381 yards 3TD 3INT w/1FUM. What his stat line doesn’t show is 170 yards and 1TD came in garbage time being down 34-17 with 5min left where the defense plays off the WR’s. Remove that and his stats would have read 210 2TD 3INT. His other 2 big games cames against the horrible pass-d of the Redskins and against the browns again(w/o haden however) The other QB’s w/9 or more INT’s: Weeden,Romo,Rivers,Cassel!! Not exactly a top-10 group his fantasy numbers suggest.His remaining schedule consists of 6 top-20 defenses. SELL HIGH!!!

JohnnyBoy
Reply to  Tim Stafford
9 years ago

More than happy to help:) And tonight’s game helped support the argument! 50% completion with 105 yards 1TD and 1INT. HaHa, what are his stats telling you now:) Should have sold when you had the chance

Ken Dogson
Reply to  Tim Stafford
9 years ago

To quote:

“In my league Dalton is currently the 7th highest total fantasy scorer.”

This site isn’t what it thinks it is.

Dave Lamson
9 years ago

Before the season started I traded Stafford for RGIII and his 1st round pick in 2013. People laughed but it looks good so far. Plus, until Detroit figures out how to have a balanced attack, Stafford will continue to struggle.

Ole J Belboe
9 years ago

I really like Chris Givens, it seems his chemistry with Bradford is improving fast. However, I am worried he will go back to being “nobody” when Amendola returns, and I am worried I am giving up future prospects for nothing..! Is it worth dropping a guy like Jeffery..?

Starting 1RB/1WR/2FLEX (starting my three stud-WR’s weekly..5-1 so far..)

QB: Stafford, Ponder
RB: BJGE, Stewart, D-Rich, Ingram, P. Thomas, A. Brown
WR: White, Harvin, Austin, A. Roberts, S. Hill, Jeffery
TE: Graham, Pitta
K: Gould
DEF: Ravens

TitleTown
Reply to  Ole J Belboe
9 years ago

Is A. Brown Andre Brown? If yes, then drop him. Wilson should get involved soon and I can’t see Brown getting past Bradshaw and Wilson when he comes back. Givens has way more upside than Brown to me.

Fife
9 years ago

Who has higher long term value Ronnie Hillman, Daryl Richardson or Brandon Bolden?

Duck
Reply to  Fife
9 years ago

I say D.Richardson, like Hillman too, but DR I think.

JohnnyBoy
Reply to  Duck
9 years ago

I agree. Richardson shares similarities with CJ2K style the Fisher likes. Plus he is already unseating HOF Jackson whereas Hillman is only a relief for the 31 year old mediocre-talented McGahee. Just my opinion.

Gronk
9 years ago

What do you think of Jon Baldwin?

Duck
Reply to  Gronk
9 years ago

Have him in 2 dynasty leagues and I’m loving hearing that Bowe wants out now! maybe Miami. Baldwin is one to grab now, next year at this time, it could get costly to get him.

bobbyH
9 years ago

Quite a quandary. I have Titus Young, carried over from last year in my non-PPR keeper league. Only have 18 roster spots.

Should i continue to hold out hope he will come around or bail for someone like Ryan Broyles??

Obviously i would like to get a young WR on a throwing team.

What do you think?

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