Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1). I’ve been hanging on to Jerome Simpson, is he worth it? – LP in Minnesota
Jerome Simpson is absolutely worth holding on to. This season has been marred by the suspension and the injury, but hang tight.
The Vikings are very, very thin at receiver and Simpson is easily the second best one they have on the team. Also, Christian Ponder is developing nicely and has to be a pleasant surprise to Vikings fans. Simpson is a physically gifted player in a relatively nice situation – that’s exactly what I want in a bench depth receiver in my dynasty leagues. It’s hard to imagine there are any players with more value sitting out there on your waiver wire.
2.) I’ve been offered Matty Ice and a second for Percy Harvin. My other quarterbacks are Schaub, Wilson and Smith. Should I take it? – Matt in San Jose
That’s a motley crew for sure at quarterback. And while I would be trying my best to do something to fix that, giving up Percy Harvin would be close to my last choice.
Harvin has developed in to an every week surefire, must-start player. One of the few guys I don’t even bother thinking about match-up. He’s in my lineup if he’s healthy. Coming in to the season, I had Harvin right around the break point between a WR1 and a WR2. I underrated him. Depending on your taste, Harvin should be in the discussion with players like Julio Jones, Hakeem Nicks and Larry Fitzgerald. The Vikings simply find ways to get him the ball either in the passing game or as a change of pace running back – that’s fantastic for fantasy.
I’ve been equally impressed by Matt Ryan’s development. The promise of 2011 and all the weapons have gelled, so 2012 has been a star caliber performance for Ryan and the Falcons as a whole. Ryan also has achieved must-start status. Plus, I see no reason to think his stats have been fluky or can’t be consistently achieved.
The problem is, especially in a ten team league, I don’t put the value on quarterback that I put on a stud WR1. Harvin is going to be a first round pick in many, many start-ups next year. I can’t say the same for Ryan. This is especially true after the relatively weak starts for the borderline first rounders of this year – Matt Stafford and Cam Newton.
My advice would be to go after a player who isn’t on fire right now. Although he’s certainly not Matt Ryan, I’d test the market on Eli Manning and see if I could get him more cost effectively. You could also see if the Matt Stafford owner is willing to sell low.
3.) Would you trade Willis McGahee ($3,1) for CJ2K ($11,3) in a $60 cap league? I’m in first place, but I have Murray who went down with an injury. – Grant in Australia
I wouldn’t want that much of my cap space tied up on a player I don’t fully trust. That’s stud running back money and CJ2K (or whatever he is) isn’t a stud fantasy back any more.
That said, these questions are a little tough to answer without knowing all the ins and outs of your league. I would be a little more inclined to do this deal if I knew for instance that there will be no stud running backs for auction in the preseason next year. If all the solid backs are under contract, then CJ2K might be your best option. He’s certainly better than nothing, but that would be an unusual situation in most SC leagues.
Willis McGahee isn’t the sexiest player in fantasy, but he grinds out the stats week in and week out. I wouldn’t be thrilled to be starting him, but there are far worse options getting started by teams every week.
I think in this case I wouldn’t worry about next year right now and just roll with “What’s you talkin bout Willis.” That nickname is probably too long to stick.
4.) Is it too early to reevaluate Matthew Stafford’s dynasty potential? I can acquire him by giving up Andy Dalton, Willis McGahee and a second round pick, but Dalton has been far and away the better quarterback this year. – Dan in Milwaukee
I was wondering when I’d start to get the Matt Stafford questions. Dan, yours is representative of several others I received in the mailbag.
It’s never too early to re-evaluate a player, but it’s far too early to react to Stafford’s slow start. You should be evaluating players constantly, but not reacting constantly. If one looks at Stafford’s actual production (vs. the noise out there) it hasn’t been all that bad. He’s not winning you fantasy games, but he’s not killing you either. If this is really the worst it can get, I’m fine with that because we have seen the upside already. It’s not promise, it’s happened in the past. I will say that having watched many of Stafford’s snaps he looks a little shaky to me. I’m not exactly sure what’s going on, but I trust it will get sorted out. Stafford is a star caliber talent and ultimately that will reemerge.
For me, Andy Dalton is the exact opposite. He’s not a star caliber talent and he’s playing above his head. Dalton has had a very favorable schedule and has made the most of it. That’s good, but it’s not sustainable. Dalton is probably a sell high right now although I think most savvy dynasty owners would see through that attempt. Side note: AJ Green owners, please don’t panic because I’m saying Dalton is a sell high. Green will get his and always will.
I think the deal on the table is a great one for you. You’re adding an old running back and a crap shoot pick to a QBBC guy to get a top rated passer. I wouldn’t let this one slip by just because Stafford hasn’t scored a bunch of touchdowns yet this year.
5.) Is it safe to drop Brian Quick or should I just stash him for a while longer? – Eli in Virginia
I have been, and continue to be, mystified by how dynasty owners are approaching Brian Quick. There was an expectation in the preseason that he was going to come in to the league and immediately be a viable fantasy starter. My only guess is that was a product of looking at the Rams depth chart and assessing that he was the best receiver on the team. That might be true but it neglects to factor in that Quick is easily the most raw receiver of any of the early round NFL selections.
I repeatedly cautioned people that Quick was a long term prospect and a risky one at that. If you followed the Senior Bowl coverage, you know he struggled in the practices working against other top caliber talent. It’s worth noting the practices are far more important tools for evaluating the players than the actual game itself.
If you believed Quick was a solid NFL prospect (and you must since you drafted him), he’s a hold. Quick has been on the field for a total of only 49 plays and has been targeted only seven times. I can’t imagine that’s enough tape to be able to say that whatever you saw in him in college and the draft process was wrong.
6.) What constitutes a true “dynasty league?” – Tony in Vicksburg
When we are talking dynasty football, we tend to mean a league where all of the players are kept from year to year. There is a start-up draft much like a redraft league draft and then in subsequent years the draft only consists of NFL rookies.
A keeper league is similar to a dynasty league but in the keeper league some number of the veterans are tossed back in to the draft pool each year and are drafted along with the rookies in a “mixed rookie free agent draft.” You may hear the term “deep keeper league” – that’s a league where the majority of the players are kept like dynasty.
The dynasty format forces owners to take a long term view to fantasy but also balance that against winning their league now. It’s far more complex (and we think rewarding) than your normal redraft league.
Hope you join us and for more information check out this primer.
Editor’s Note: Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.