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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  Trade offer: Julio Jones for RGIII.  My other wide receivers are Calvin Johnson, Tampa Mike Williams and Nate Washington.  My quarterbacks are Michael Vick, Jay Cutler and Russell Wilson.  Is it worth it? Doug in Green Bay

The only quarterback who I have ranked ahead of Julio Jones is Aaron Rodgers.  So that means I wouldn’t make this trade.  Julio has moved in to the elite WR1 category and should command more than RGIII in return.

I’m sure at this point RGIII is a tough player to acquire in dynasty leagues.  He looks to be the real deal and is currently the leading scorer in most formats.  If you do decide to trade for him, I’m sure the price will be high, but I wouldn’t be able to part with Julio.

We’re only three weeks in to the season, but it’s not looking like using an early pick in a start-up or spending heavily in a trade on Cam Newton or Matthew Stafford was actually worth it.  Same is true for Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.  There are simply too many solid quarterback options to give up a stud like Jones.

2.)  Is it time to buy low on Wes Welker or will his value never recover (even in PPR)? I’ve been offered Welker for Roddy White as the main piece of a trade and I don’t want to be left holding the bag. – MJ in Cleveland

I’ll take this question in three parts.

First off, if you can buy low on Welker, by all means do so.  If the Patriots are actually playing games with him and his lack of snaps is contract related, shame on them.  Let’s remember that Welker was the good guy and signed the tag, showing up on time without any sort of prolonged holdout.  He’s a better player than Julian Edelman and should be able to help the Pats win – something they haven’t done much of so far this year.  I fully expect Welker’s snap count and targets to return to normal and we already saw signs of that this week.

Second, I’m not sure that giving Roddy White for Welker is exactly “buying low.”  I’d rather start Roddy on a week-to-week basis and I think the predicted demise of White with the emergence of Julio Jones is far overstated.  Roddy is currently in the top-20 in targets and is actually younger than Welker.  Remember that Welker’s contract issue is likely to re-emerge this off-season so he needs to come at a meaningful discount in trades right now.

Lastly, don’t be overly concerned about being left “holding the bag.”  Look at guys like Steve Smith (CAR) and Reggie Wayne.  They are productive fantasy players and are helping owners who had the guts to stick with them or to trade for them as others bailed out in fear of a steep decline.  Roddy’s game (nor Welker’s) has ever been about speed.  These guys are technicians and I think they can have several more years of productivity.  Maybe they become solid WR2s, but we all need one of those.

3.)  I’m a CJ Spiller owner and I’ve loved it.  Is it worth going after Fred Jackson in a trade?  My team is a serious contender.  If I go for Jackson, what’s he worth?  – Bryan in Nashville

Like any trade question it depends on the price.

I wouldn’t spend a whole lot at this point trying to acquire Fred Jackson – he’s an aging running back coming off a knee injury and is now faced with incredibly stiff competition.  A lot is made of the fact that Jackson’s total career touches are quite low for a 31 year old player.  What’s lost in that is the time he played for Sioux City and the Rhein Fire.  While that’s not exactly the NFL, I’m quite confident those tackles can be painful and wear you down as well.

I expect a full on RBBC as soon as CJ Spiller returns.  My bet is that Spiller gets 15-18 touches per game and is a low end RB2 with upside from here on out.  If that’s the case and you are already the Spiller owner, I don’t see much point in acquiring Jackson.

Additionally, I’m concerned that Jackson is hurrying back.  It must be very difficult to watch from the sidelines as Spiller is torching teams on his way to being the league’s rushing leader.  Even before the Spiller injury, I’m sure he was eager to get back in the game.  I worry we are going see him at less than 100% of what we know he can be.

4.) I’ve been holding onto Jared Cook for years.  Is it time to cut bait on him?  Braxton in Los Angeles

Probably.  I get a lot of questions like this and it really comes down to your league and your team.

I hope that Jared Cook isn’t your TE1.  Chances are you are holding him in hopes that he emerges as a top-8 tight end.  Frankly, I don’t see that happening.  He certainly has the talent, but too many factors are conspiring against him.  Jake Locker is developing slowly, the Titans spread the ball around and there are plenty of other good tight ends.  And at some point the book is sort of in on a player.  Cook’s had plenty of chances at this point and the light just hasn’t come on.  If you are holding him as a TE2, I’d look elsewhere for a high upside prospect even if that means another receiver or running back instead of having the extra tight end.

I still have Cook inside my top-250, but it’s getting close at this point.  That means in a short roster league (say 12-teams, 20-spots) he could be waiver wire material, but that all depends on the rest of your team.  If you are stacked, he’s probably clogging up a valuable roster spot.  If you are rebuilding, he’s likely worth keeping.  You know your team and what’s on the wire, but if there’s someone out there you like, I’m fine with you cutting Cook.

5.) When you are setting your weekly line-up, how much do you consider your opponent’s team?  Things like his quarterback throwing to your wide receiver or tight end, issues like that.  Bill in Charm City

Very little.  We actually addressed this recently on the DLF Podcast.

I certainly don’t consider the quarterback part at all.  I’m not concerned with trying to counteract my opponent’s quarterback touchdowns by playing his wide receiver or tight end – that could easily lead me to starting an inferior player, then watching as others on the quarterback’s team are the recipients of the touchdowns.  I play in a lot of leagues and it’s incredibly rare for me to even look at my opponent’s line up before kick-off.

From time to time, I will consider the overall strength of my opponent’s team when I’m making tough lineup choices.  If I feel overmatched, I might go for a high upside play (e.g. DeSean Jackson or Vincent Jackson).  While if I think I have the edge, I might go for a safe bet to get some points (e.g. Reggie Wayne or Stevie Johnson).  This is something I only do during fantasy crunch time and even then I tend to just start my best players and let the chips fall where they may.  Your lineup choices are far more hit or miss than just assembling a solid team with obvious starters.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

16 Comments
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meroj
9 years ago

Nice read. However, a little aggressive on that Cook stance. No way on earth he is a cut and has actually looked pretty solid so far this season IMO.

Jesse
Reply to  meroj
9 years ago

Yea, interesting comments coming off of Cook’s and Locker’s best game.

Snowballs Chance
Reply to  meroj
9 years ago

I agree. The book being in on cook? Locker developing slowly? It was his third start and basically this is cooks first year as a full time player. Funny how Finley of the packers has so much potential yet fails to reach it, but people arent writing him of and he’s had WAY more opportunity… I think Cook’s best production is ahead of him. And at his price, would much rather have him than Finley.

Ricky
9 years ago

I enjoyed the thoughts and insight on the question about choosing your lineup based on your opponents team, good stuff

phil
9 years ago

last week i took colston out of my lineup and played edleman at wr and leshore at flex, even though i was against the brees owner…it turned out to be a solid fantasy move for me….i like having the qb and at least one of his wrs/tes i have brady and gronk/hernandez and i love it….even tho its been slow so far this year

captainzach1
Reply to  phil
9 years ago

Blah blah

Ken Dogson
9 years ago

I’ve got a trade offer I don’t know what to do with.

My Robert Turbin for his Jahvid Best.

I have to start 2 RBs each week, and can start up to via Flex options. I’m okay at RB I think, with Reggie Bush, Alfred Morris, Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller, Tashard Choice (picked up this week), Bilal Powell, Kevin Smith, and Mikel Leshoure.

Choice will be a drop if FredEx or Spiller are a go on Sunday. Kevin Smith has gone from starter to possibly zero value. He could soon be a drop. Turbin is a stash should Lynch go down or go into Least Mode, or retire in a few years.

I see Best as 90% likely done, but if he does return in a Darren Sproles type role he could be very, very good in this PPR league.

I think I’d really be taking a risk here, but I feel like I’d still be okay should I lose Turbin while Best ends up never playing again.

Talk me down or tell me to do it.

JBlake
Reply to  Ken Dogson
9 years ago

You would be taking all the risk in that trade, but I know it’s tempting because we all know how great Best could be. But that’s IF he ever plays another down. Ask him to throw in a 3rd round pick and then it might be worth it.

alden bietz
Reply to  Ken Dogson
9 years ago

Not worth it dude! I drafted Best as a rookie, and have been holding on to hope ever since. But the reality is he will have missed one year from his last concussion. Last year I picked up Kevin Smith FA, and in this years draft traded for Leshoure. So I would be set at the RB spot in Detroit no matter what. Now with what Leshoure did playing the way he did last week. Best is worth dropping, I still will keep Best , only to see what he does in 4 weeks from now. But may drop him at anytime depending on FA talent.

Alan Bauerle
9 years ago

Don’t do it. Best concussion prone n Leshore is lookin good. I wouldn’t

GangstaMachine
9 years ago

Thanks for the comments on “Do you look at your opponent’s team to make lineup decisions.”

Totally agreewith your article, and I always try to tell my friends: The goal here is to score the most points, not to buy insurance. Play the guy who will score you the most points and you win. That’s the game.

The ONLY time I asses the other the team is when I’m on the fence about two players (e.g. Vick vs Romo). Both had solid matchups and it was a flip-a-coin situation. The guy I was facng had Dez Bryant, Murray and Witten. I went with Romo… But that is probably a once-every-two-years situation.

So lesson is: Score the most points.

captainzach1
Reply to  GangstaMachine
9 years ago

The other thing I’m guilty of is looking at time of games. This week I’m fighting the urge to pick up a DB to play monday night because I have no one and my opponent has Marshall.

Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

When are we going to start downgrading Hakeem Nicks on the receiver rankings?

Another guy that is simply maddening to own.

#gametimedecision

Admin
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
9 years ago

Boy, it is starting to become a real concern, isn’t it?

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  Ken Kelly
9 years ago

alright, so….

Ridley or Maclin in his place?

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