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The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1).  We are slowly introducing keepers, this year keeping four and moving up to five next year.  I am keeping Megatron, Ryan Mathews, Matt Stafford and DeMarco Murray.  Due to Murray’s ‘fragility,’ I was thinking of trying to trade him for AJ Green or Julio.  Seems to me those young stud WRs are a better long term investment, but RBs are scarce.  Do I make this offer? Aaron in Lincoln, NE

Glad your league is moving toward more and more keepers.  Make sure to tell your league-mates about DLF.

Even for a ten team league, you have a solid set of keepers.  All of them typically go in the first two rounds of dynasty start-ups.  Congrats!

I think you are on the right track in considering trading Murray for either AJ Green or Julio Jones.  There are legitimate reasons to be concerned about Murray’s risk of injury.  Plus either Green or Jones will hold their value longer.  This is certainly the move I’d make in a full dynasty.

I want to point out, however, that the win-now move is to keep Murray.  I’m fairly certain he will go higher in most re-draft formats (this league is sort of in-between) and you will have an easier time finding a dependable WR2 in your draft.  A significant portion of AJ Green and Julio’s dynasty value is the longevity.  But they will likely be outscored by a number of WRs taken after them (e.g. Welker, Roddy, Andre Johnson) in dynasty start-ups.

You can’t make a bad call on this.  If you do keep Murray, I think I’d burn a pick a little earlier than normal on Felix Jones.  I advise against handcuffing in dynasty, but your situation is a tad different.

2.) I’ve put together a team that I feel can “win now.”  Rice/Forte, Marshall/Andre Johnson/White, Gates.  My weakness is QB (Cutler/Schaub).  Knowing how much quarterbacks are valued do I try to acquire an elite one or stick with my mediocre two? – MJ in Cleveland

I’m not sure I’d even call Cutler and Schaub mediocre, it’s worse than that.  Cutler is probably a mediocre QB2 and Schaub is worthy only of backing up a stud like Brees, Brady, or A.Rod.  It’s going to be very, very hard to win a league playing the match-ups with this pair.

You don’t mention what assets you have that could be used to acquire a better QB option.  None of your WRs are going to pull a ton of value in a trade, nor is Gates.  You probably shouldn’t move either Rice or Forte since those are the cornerstones of your team.

I will say this – I wouldn’t be trading away any future first or second round rookie picks.  Your team is teetering on the edge of needing a rebuild.  AJ/White/Gates are all declining dynasty assets and NFL players.  Combine that with the mess at QB.

Crazy idea – since your team is on the decline and heading toward rebuild, why not make one last Hail Mary?  If I look at the QBs outside of the usual suspects, the one guy that strikes me could put up elite numbers in 2012 is Michael Vick.  If you get him on the cheap and pair him with Cutler, I think you may have a shot.

 3.)  I’m currently slotted to draft 11th in a 16 team contract dynasty league, w/ PTDs worth 4 pts. Are any QBs worth taking in the first round at 11 over any of the first tier RBs considering 4 pt PTDs?  My current plan is to wait on Matt Ryan and take him at pick #54.  – Ben in Pittsburgh

Absolutely, there are QBs worth taking in the first.  If anything, I think QB becomes more important in a 16-team league.

There’s zero chance you get A-Rod at that slot, but taking either of Stafford or Cam would be within the norm.  As much as I like Brees and Brady, they’d be a reach at that point.  Brees would be a great get in the second.  And I’m high enough on Brady that if he was the only QB left of this group when I was OTC in round two, I’d take him but I’d know I was reaching.

I haven’t done any 16-team mocks this year so I can’t say with any certainty if Ryan will be there at #54.  He’s going later than that in 12-team drafts.  My gut tells me he should be there, but that by taking him there you are getting the worst of both worlds.  Instead of getting a high end RB2/WR2, you’re getting a mediocre QB1.  This is why I’d rather take Brees in the second and a guy like Bradshaw, Spiller or Colston at #54.

4.) I have the 1.02 and 1.04 rookie picks.  My team is weak at both RB and QB.  I’m certain that T.Rich goes 1.01 and I will take Doug Martin at 1.02.  With Eli currently at the helm, am I better off going with a RB/WR at 1.04 or taking Luck or Griffin?  And if QB, which one?  I’m fairly certain Wilson goes 1.03.  Curious in Charleston, WV

Note:  Curious told me in his submission that this is a non-PPR.  That helps explain (somewhat) the apparent reach for David Wilson. 

Long time readers will know exactly what I’m about to say!

You should go Best Player Available (BPA) at every pick in your rookie draft and break ties based on team need and personal preference.  I have no problem with you taking Doug Martin at 1.02 in a non-PPR.  I’d do the same in that format, especially since you have Eli.

The BPA approach also means you should take QB at 1.04.  So your question nets down to who to take of Luck or RG3.  I’m actually somewhat surprised this debate hasn’t raged on a little more passionately – sort of like the AJ Green vs. Julio debate last year.

For me the answer is Luck.  I’d make that selection recognizing that I will probably watch RG3 put up better rookie numbers – his situation is superior.  I expect RG3 will put up low end QB1 numbers while Luck will be a mediocre QB2 in 2012.

What tips the scale for me is safety.  I see Luck as nearly bust proof.  (I’m knocking on wood right now!)  I project Luck’s floor as something approximating Matt Ryan and his ceiling as nearly unlimited.  If you haven’t seen him play, just wait.  He’s everything a QB (and a leader) ought to be.

5.) Last week you opened with the fact that Brandon Jacobs is practically worthless in dynasty and I agree.  What advice would you give for moving stalwart vets in dynasty?  In my case I have S.Jax as solid RB2 going into the season as primary Rams workhorse, but his trade value is little more than a prospect RB such as Tate or Hunter. JJ from parts unknown

Right.

There’s really very little you can do to get decent value for aging players – especially RBs.  Just ask the Gore and Turner owners how they feel.  At least with S-Jax you’ll get solid 2012 production.

Your only hope of trading a player like this for value is to wait until the middle of the season.  Inevitably a team in your league will be in contention and lose a key guy to injury.  That’s when you can try to flip an S-Jax type for a 2013 first (assuming you’re not in contention).

One thing to remember is that there isn’t anything wrong with riding a guy in to the ground.  Dynasty owners are very averse to this, I think in part because they just don’t want to look like they were foolish for not trading a player earlier.  If you have a team in contention and the best you can get for Gore or Turner is a future second, why take it?  Just accept your lumps and enjoy the production you’re getting.  There odds of the second hitting are quite low anyway.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

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Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

I agree with everything, except for your take on Cutler. I suspect he may put up sneaky low end QB1 stats this year.

SJ
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

That, I also agree with. I wouldnt even closesly say Cuter/Schaub is a disaster. Cutler will perform better in this offense now that hes teamed up with his old OC Bates, and WR Marshall. Do I think its going to be circa 2008? No. But it should be substantially better than last year for Cutty… QB 10-14. Coupled with a decent showing from Schaub here and there, and thats good enough to contend.

As you know the playoffs could lead to anything, total crapshoot and anything could happen. so getting there is the win in itself. I feel like you could do that with that team. Hopefully you have some depth though to go along with those vets, cuase I do believe one of those listed will go down to injury.

Coach
Reply to  SJ
10 years ago

Id start schaub if he’s healthy and cutler is a fine back up plan. The thought that you need to have brady/rodgers/brees to win is something I don’t agree with.

That being said, I don’t think that team is going to win now anyway. Forte? Andre? Gates? tough to trust the three of them.

10 years ago

For the Cutler/Schaub guy – I wouldnot rebuild now under any circumstances. If Schaub can stay healthy, he can be a top 10 quarterback. If Cutler plays much better with the additions of Jeffrey and Marshall, he can also be a top 10 quarterback. I’ll roll the dice with the guys you have and take a run at the title.

MJ
Reply to  Bob Cavezza
10 years ago

Thanks you made me feel better about my QB’s after reading the mailbag response. I have some depth but not much. (Ben Tate, Garcon, Nate Washington). I guess it’s important to factor in the other teams in the league too and thats hard to do in columns like this. 12 teams and two are rebuilding. I think sometimes dynasty owners get stuck looking only at the future so they develop their team around age only and lose focus of winning now. If I can win this year and have to rebuild I will cross that bridge when I get to it. It’s too easy to over think in July and regret it in September.

Coach
Reply to  MJ
10 years ago

try to trade Tate to the Foster owner. You could probably get a useful piece in return.

Smokey
Reply to  Bob Cavezza
10 years ago

I don’t think he should rebuild now either but to say that Schaub and Cutler can be Top 10 is a stretch. I don’t see either of those guys outperforming Rodgers,Brady,Brees,Newton,Stafford,Ryan,Rivers,Manning. That’s 8 right there. You also have Romo,Big Ben,Vick and who know’s what to expect from Luck and RG3. Even if they do have solid years they “might” sneak into the 9th or 10th spot and personally i don’t think that’s enough anymore. Having a Top 10 QB is not what it used to be when the Top 5 QB’s are putting up the numbers that they do. In my league Brees scored 553 points and Rivers was 10th with 380. The rest of your team better be pretty damn solid if you plan to win with that much of a difference at the QB position.

CaptiveAssasin
10 years ago

To the owner looking to move Murray. I would move him for Julio in a heart beat. Murray is going to disappoint and I think it is almost a lock for Julio to be a stud. Also like you said you get more years out of a WR. You do not need 2 stud RB to win anyway. I won a league last year with MJD as RB1 and Shonn Greene as RB2. If you have 2 stud WR, a stud QB, and a stud RB you do not need much to propel your team to the top. If you can trade Murray for Graham or Gronk I would actually prefer to do that. Way too much emphasis on taking RB early by so many people this year. When you are absolutely dominant at all other positions you do not need to be dominant at RB. You just need some serviceable guys.

Jack Daniels
Reply to  CaptiveAssasin
10 years ago

And Murray is going to disappoint how? If you expectations for him are to be Arian Foster then sure. But as a serviceable RB2, he’ll score way more points than Julio. WR is the deepest position out there…by a mile. #2 WR’s are a dime a dozen. Getting solid production out of your #2 RB is a must, regardless of the fluke MJD Greene season you had.

Murray for Graham or Gronk is also a flop. Everyone thinks they need the “Stud” at a certain position and overpay every time. Grab Vernon Davis or Witten and save your players/picks to build a better team for the future.

Joseph Gugliuzza
10 years ago

I can’t believe the lack of love toward Schaub. How in the world can you call Matt Schaub worse than mediocre. He had a freak foot injury last year. Before he went down he was on pace to throw for about 4,000 yards and at least two dozen TDs. And, he was w/out Dre Johnson for most of the games he played. Not to mention he threw for no less than 4300 yards and 24 TDs the two previous years. I realize that the 4,770 and 29 TDs he had in 2009 may not be reached this year but, it is possible. Matt Schaub is a sneaky little sleeper pick this year. Definetly a top ten QB and more than worthy of leading a fantasy team to a championship. I’ve got him myself and I plan on starting him every week. With the only exception being week 8 when I plan on substituting him with Sam Bradford. How about that? Sam Bradford? I’m sure that there’s plenty of negative stuff to say about him. Oh, and my backup (QB2) is Joe Flacco. lol. I guess all the know-it-alls will have nothing but wonderful things to say about Joe Flacco. I’m just glad that I’ve handcuffed my Schaub with T.J. Yates. At least I can breath a little easier knowing that I have a backup who has won in the playoffs! (lol. ok, I admit I may be a little sarcastic) but, I still believe that Schaub will be a top ten QB this year.

SJ
Reply to  Joseph Gugliuzza
10 years ago

I dont think Schaub is bad hes just not that attractive in the sense hes already hit his peak and you know what your gonna get from him already. Couple in the injury, the definite adopted run-oriented HOU mentality, and not much behind AJ (not to mention the possibility of losing AJ again to injury, or Schaub himself) and you basically have the typical lackluster dynasty athlete. Your not going to attract a lot of value for him in a trade, that time’s over. Maybe you could before late last year before Lisfrac said hi.

Sure he’ll put up decent numbers but not top 10. and sure he will be usable in spot starts. I just dont think you wanna use him each week, and i think thats reasonable. Thats why most people want better than him as a QB1, and probably why Schaub will never be a QB1 again – nothings pointing his value in that direction.

Ken Dogson
Reply to  Joseph Gugliuzza
10 years ago

Schaub is fine as a QB, but as a FF QB1 he is likely to be 8-12 points (averages) behind Rodgers, Stafford, Newton, Brady, etc.

That’s just the reality. Most leagues only start 1 QB. hat puts you -12 right off the bat (again, on average).

Now, I have Schaub as my QB1 (Luck as QB2, Locker as QB3) in one dynasty league. By waiting to pick my QB1 I picked up:

RB Trent Richardson
RB Ryan Matthews
RB Demarco Murray
RB Darren McFadden
WR Julio Jones
WR Alex Green
TE Gronk
TE Finley
K Crosby
DEF GB

I hoping that my other players compensate for the lack of an elite FF QB, and I also hope that Locker or Luck (or both) develop into elite FF QBs.

Only time will tell.

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  Ken Dogson
10 years ago

So, it’s a 4 team league?

Ken Dogson
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

No, 12.

Yeah,

Ken Dogson
Reply to  Ken Dogson
10 years ago

yeah, I know.

About half the coaches seemed unaware that players age…Gore, Steve Smith, etc.

Another third drafted just plain bad and were easy targets for trades.

I gave up 3 players and two picks next year for Gronk and Murray…

But now, after building what is likely the best and youngest team, no one even responds to my trade offers.

VoiceofUnreason
Reply to  Ken Dogson
10 years ago

I’ve never seen a league that bad before. I wouldn’t take any advise based on where you drafted qbs in it.

Sensei John Kreese
Reply to  VoiceofUnreason
10 years ago

I wont knock Ken, obviously he knows what he is doing. I just want to see that draft log.

Ken Dogson
Reply to  Sensei John Kreese
10 years ago

I traded for McFadden, Murray, and Gronk.

1.04 = Matthews

2nd = Richardson

3rd = Jones

4th = Green

5th = Ben Tate

6th = Finley

7th and 8th = Luck and David Wilson

and so on…

The real boneheads consisted of a guy who traded McFadden to me for Antonio Brown, Ed Dickson, and DHB. Then about a month later he traded McFadden back to me…

Another guy traded Gronk to me in a similar type deal.

A tactic I’ve used over the years to snooker the boobs is examining his roster for weak spots, say WR, picking up a decent waiver guy, a WR, and combining that with someone already on my roster, like another WR, and then selling the boob on turning his position of weakness into a position of strength by engaging in a 2 for 1 trade, say Antonio Brown and DHB for a RB like Murray or McFadden….then I sometimes combine that RB with another waiver pick up and bounce the value up yet again in another 2 for 1.

It only works when roster size and number of teams leaves some talent still out there to pick up off the waiver wire.

Draft well and have no mercy on the idiots.

Robertbobson
10 years ago

More evidence for my theory that Schaub is the most underrated player in fantasy this season!

Also, what happened to question 3)? You went from question 2) to question 4)!

Mercenaries
Reply to  Robertbobson
10 years ago

There are two question 4)’s and no question 3).

Admin
Reply to  Mercenaries
10 years ago

Took care of it. Thanks for the catch guys.

Mike D
10 years ago

I have a question similar to #4. I have 1.05, I know RG3, Luck, Trent, and Martin are gone. I need a WR. I know Blackmon is the obvious choice, but am I completely out of my mind for thinking about Kendall Wright at the spot? Before anyone tells me to trade out or to look at Floyd, hear me out. For one, I’ve tried to trade out, there are no good trade partners. And I like Wright better than Floyd, so it’s going to come down to Wright or Blackmon.

Something about Blackmon just worries me – the DUI, the holdout, MJD is holding out, Gabbert. I just don’t love it. I like Jake Locker, Hasselback is at least competent, and with the Britt situation Wright has an open door to some playing time. I watched the film of Wright, he just gets open, catches the ball, and makes plays. Any reason he couldn’t turn out like Greg Jennings? So, am I nuts here or what? Thanks!

Danton Goulet
Reply to  Mike D
10 years ago

My take is you go with your gut instinct. If you like Wright better than Floyd, stick with your gut. But make sure you feel that Wright is the BPA over Blackmon before making that decision. I always look at the talent I see on film and on the field not situation. Sure Britt being out for a while is enticing but you will be kicking yourself if Blackmon is putting up better numbers than Wright because you chose more by situation than talent.
If you feel Wright is better than go with it but I have Blackmon rated higher than Wright FWIW.

stolenmeat
Reply to  Danton Goulet
10 years ago

I agree, go with your gut. There’s usually a reason for what you’re feelin. I actually took Josh Gordon at 10th in my rookie draft. One of the guys asked me “who is Josh Gordon”. Guess he’ll find out soon enough.

tebow
Reply to  Mike D
10 years ago

i have the same gut feeling i would take Wright over Blackmon,there is just too much Crabtree in Blackmon in my mind and Wright has some Harvin in him. I just think there is less risk with Wright

Ken Dogson
Reply to  Mike D
10 years ago

I don’t like either.

Alshon Jeffery, Mohamed Sanu, Broyles…with your 2nd Round pick rather than your 1st…

Do you have to take a WR at 1.05?

Mike D
Reply to  Ken Dogson
10 years ago

I don’t have to, but I’m set at QB and RB, and I won’t take Fleener that high. I suppose you’re suggesting Wilson. I actually love Pead’s tape – ridiculous burst and lateral movement/change of direction, but I think he’s a reach at 1.05. Thanks for the feedback, everyone. My draft’s in two weeks, so I have time to get a better look at these guys, but ultimately, I’m going to go with my gut if I can’t trade out.

Ken Dogson
Reply to  Mike D
10 years ago

Wilson, Pead…yeah. I’d take Wilson, even if it means waiting a year longer.

Any team in your league heavy at WR and light at RB?

You could take best RB available and try to trade later when Bradshaw or Jackson miss time.

I don’t know.

Is someone like Randall Cobb available off of waivers to shore up WR? He’ll win the slot position this year and has also been taking 3rd down reps as an H-Back, in addition to return duties (if your league counts KR yards/TDs).

Good luck!

Johnny Vegas
10 years ago

Randall Cobb on the wire?
I just saw Reggie Bush and Wells traded for Cobb..
26 man rosters..

Steve W
10 years ago

Can we get a 16team mock draft on here ? It would be great to see how the players fall in this league. With QB being a little more important

Forresto
10 years ago

PPR League 0.5 PPR. I have the #4 Rookie pick in my upcoming draft. I have Brady signed through this year but that is it and I would like to land one of the two top QBs. It sounds like they will fall in my draft, (Like to the bottom of the first round) do I trade down to take one or add Michael Floyd? Order sounds like (TRich, DMartin, Blackmon, ?) I have a solid core of young WR Dez, Julio, Harvin, Little and Fitz. I am weak at RB and have Bradshaw so I would also like to grab his heir apparent in Wilson. I have the 4th and 15th pick in this draft, advise please

Forresto
Reply to  Forresto
10 years ago

Also I think I may be able to move the 1.04 for the 1.07 and Randall Cobb. So possibly cobb and RGIII or Luck at that 7 pick

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