Identification, Evaluation and Correction of Dynasty Issues

Who hasn’t had this gut wrenching experience: it’s the last week of the fantasy football season and you’ve just missed your league’s fantasy playoffs by one win, or worse yet, a handful of points? If you haven’t had your fantasy heart pulled out and handed to you by the scenario I just outlined, then you haven’t been playing fantasy football long enough. I hope you never have to experience it, but if you have, you know it’s just absolutely soul crushing and you don’t want to interact with another human for a long, long time in its aftermath. I’m here to tell you, it’s easily avoidable and with some easy calculations, bold action and just the smallest bit of luck.

This article will show you how.

Say after week three you’re in the basement of your division with a record of 1-2 or sit at a miserable 0-3. You’ve taken some close losses and can’t figure out for the life of you why your team is floundering. You’re considering packing it in, having a fire sale and rebuilding for next year – the equivalent of stepping out a window on onto a ledge.

Don’t jump, I’m your dynasty negotiator and I’m here to tell you, it will be OK!

This problem, just like all others, has both a root and a solution. First, let’s identify the problem; it’s more than likely your team has one or more problem positions, or positions that are dragging your team down. Objectively, it’s hard to pinpoint most times, but numbers, well they never lie!

First, let’s start in the third week like I mentioned above. You’re feeling bad about your early poor record. This record is due to one of two reasons – you’re either the owner of a team with real problems or you’ve just faced some horrible luck. One can be fixed; the other can’t, short of a rabbit’s foot, four-leaf clover and a box of Lucky Charms. If your team has problems, we first need to identify what those problems are. If you’re in a league with a history longer than one year then you’re in luck, you’ve got a blueprint by which playoff teams are made…last year’s playoff teams.

Since your dynasty league has some history, let’s put it to good use.

First, identify the top scoring teams last year. For the purpose of this article, we’ll say four teams make the playoffs in this hypothetical league, Team A, B, C & D. We are also going to assume that all the top scoring teams made the playoffs. The assumption that the highest scoring teams directly translate to playoff teams is obviously far from true, however, on average high scoring teams make the playoffs, or at the very least put themselves in an excellent position to do so. Always use the highest scoring teams and not simply the teams with the most wins in your analysis. Wins are based upon luck, where points scored increase the probability of gaining wins. What we will do first is build up an average of your team through the first three weeks this season as well as an average for the top four scoring teams through the first three weeks of last season. If you are in a league in its initial season, you can do this exercise on the top scoring teams through the first three weeks. The results will be less reliable, but it’s better than nothing.

The reason for using points versus wins in this exercise is that wins are arbitrary and deal solely with luck. You may have been the second highest scoring team during each of your losses, but that kind of bad luck doesn’t last forever and as long as you’re scoring well, those kind of points you will get the wins your team deserves. Additionally, working within a three week window keeps the teams being observed fairly static and accounts for some swings of luck. This window slides as the season goes. For instance, if it’s prior to the kickoff of week nine then you should be looking at weeks six through eight.

Now then, if you scored 100 points in week one, 110 in week two and 120 in week three, we’re looking at an average of the three weeks of 110 per week (100+110+120/3 = 110). Let’s say “Team A” had an average of 200 points, “Team B” had an average of 175 points, “Team C” had an average of 150 points and “Team D” had an average of 125 points. We are looking at a range of 125 points to 200 points for those teams making the playoffs last year in the same time frame. If your team is scoring 110 points on average and never once reached the low mark of 125 established by the lowest scoring playoff team in three weeks then changes need to be made, but where?

Luckily, problem areas are easily identifiable using a similar method to what was just outlined. First, we need to look at the starting lineups for the same three week period. We will want to break the lineups down by position. Let’s take quarterback for instance. If our quarterback scored 15, 20 and 25 points during our first three weeks, then on average our quarterback is posting 20 points per week. If last year “Team A’s” quarterback scored 30 points on average, “Team B’s” quarterback scored 28 points, “Team C’s” quarterback scored 26 points on average and “Team D’s” quarterback scored 24 points on average, then we’ve effectively identified a potential problem spot that we need to address – our quarterback.  If our running backs are outpacing last year’s playoff teams, we’ve identified a strength from which we can draw upon to shore up or weaker positions. Identifying strengths and weaknesses early in the season are absolutely essential in order to have a successful season, the earlier we can identify them, the better.

Since we’ve identified an issue and we’ve pinpointed the cause of the problem, let’s start developing a solution. In order to do so, we need to identify two things. First, are there any free agents outperforming our problem players and second, are there any teams in our league with players who can address our issues? The first item is self-explanatory; if a free agent is better than your current player, get him. Problem solved! However, the second item requires much more thought and research. The same exercise we’ve outlined thus far needs to be performed league-wide on all the teams. Identify teams with strengths and weaknesses complimentary to your own as they will make for more accommodating trade partners most of the time. Conversely, also identify teams in the “playoff bubble,” if you will, that are weaker at a position you are also weak at as last ditch trade partners.

Unfortunately, there are times that trading with teams on the “playoff bubble” are unavoidable. However, a good rule of thumb is to avoid these trades whenever realistically possible. Trading with them will help you, but not as much as trading with a team not in the “playoff bubble.” The reason for this is that trading with a team not on the “playoff bubble” strengthens you against all four “playoff bubble” teams while trading with a team inside the “playoff bubble” only strengthens you against three of the four teams and may actually strengthen the other “playoff bubble” team, your trading partner.

The goal of this exercise is to maximize your strength while keeping the “playoff bubble” teams the same, or if possible, weakening them by conducting trades with them at their weakest positions. Under no circumstances should you trade to a “playoff bubble” team’s strength! If they are heavy at quarterback, the position you are weak at, and have two or three studs or even above average quarterbacks in a league that allows you to start only one, resist the temptation to trade with them no matter how hard it may be. Such a trade may seem to benefit you, but in reality it actually hurts your chances to make the playoffs since you’ve now strengthened one of the “playoff bubble” teams and helped solidify their position within that bubble.

As contrary as it may seem, if you are offered to two trades, one with a team inside the “playoff bubble” that plays to their strength and the other trade offer from a team outside the “playoff bubble” that is actually a marginally weaker deal, it actually strengthens your chances to make the playoffs. The reasoning is simple – if you accept the marginally weaker trade, you are still strengthening your team, while effectively blocking the “playoff bubble” team from strengthening their position, at least temporarily.

It can’t be overstated how important it is for owners to constantly re-evaluate their position within a league. Since the dynamics of a league are constantly fluctuating, the vigilant owner must change as the league changes. One cannot simply draft and hope to be champion or, better yet, develop into a dynasty without remaining observant to how the league changes around them.

I would encourage every dynasty owner to perform evaluations on their team several times a season and especially before your league’s trading deadline in order to make that final push into the playoffs. Every season presents new challenges which successful owners overcome. It never hurts to do a post-season and pre-season evaluation either to be better prepared. Those owners unwilling, or unable, to face the challenges presented to them never get to raise the trophy at the end of the season.  Now that you’ve got the tools to properly evaluate your team throughout I season, I expect to get several “Thank You” cards or emails come playoff time.

Just don’t forget to cut me in on some of the winnings.