Ten Dangerous Assumptions
As dynasty league owners gear up for another exciting season, I’m seeing a lot of posts in forums and articles around the web that have words like “will,” “definitely,” “is certain to be,” etc. Many of these bold statements are made on subjects of great controversy.
In this article, I’m going to focus on “Ten Dangerous Assumptions” that are occurring in dynasty leagues right now. Some revolve around player values, others revolve around trading tactics and even others revolve around being a commissioner of a league.
Regardless, each of these assumptions are very risky to make and shouldn’t be relied on as fact. If you buy in all the way to some of these ideas, you’re asking for serious trouble in your dynasty leagues.
1.) Brandon Marshall’s move to Chicago makes him a “must own” player
Look, I get it.
In the three years Brandon Marshall played with Jay Cutler in Denver, he had 220 catches for a total of 2,800 yards and 14 touchdowns. Cutler also had 4,526 passing yards, a Broncos franchise record in 2008 as they were both Pro Bowl selections. Cutler even targeted Marshall a ridiculous 179 times in 2008.
That’s crazy.
Marshall’s 2008 campaign was his best, as he caught a career-high 104 passes while gaining 1,265 yards and scoring six touchdowns. He also had 18 catches in one game in 2008, though he bested that with an NFL record 21 a year later.
So, what’s the hangup, you ask?
I admit that Marshall’s value could take a bit of an uptick now that he’s back playing with Cutler. However, there are a few things that give me pause.
First, this offense is still going to run through Matt Forte, assuming they get him under contract. While Marshall will be the number one target for Cutler, it’s hard to see him targeting him in insane quantities like he did with the Broncos, especially with the addition of Alshon Jeffery.
Second, and most importantly, I never consider anyone who has burned as many bridges as Marshall has as a “must own” player. I’d much rather build my team around consistent players who don’t have as many red flags associated with them. If I already had a bona fide WR1, he’s worth the risk. If I’m getting Marshall to BE my WR1, not so much.
In the end, “must own” is too strong of a statement when it comes to any player who seems to be one McDonald’s bag away from another bout of legal trouble or league suspension.
2.) The 1.1 rookie pick is guaranteed to net me an instant stud
I’m a big fan of Trent Richardson and have always looked at him as the better prospect when comparing him to Mark Ingram as they played at Alabama – he’ll prove that now.
That being said, there are never any guarantees when it comes to rookies. He’s the clear starter in Cleveland and won’t have to really compete with anyone for carries, but will Brandon Weeden be good enough to keep defenses from stacking the box against him for the next few years?
Ronnie Brown, Reggie Bush, Knowshon Moreno and a host of others have been taken number one overall over the past decade and none have really become ultra-studs. Some are even ultra-duds. I don’t think Richardson has much of a chance to be in the dud category, but again, there are no assurances of greatness, either.
Just don’t find yourself penciling Richardson in as your RB1 at the moment. In fact, my thoughts on 1.01 are pretty well known. Andrew Luck and Trent Richardson are both two of the best prospects to come out in years and any team would be fortunate to have either one of them.
In fantasy football, just remember there are simply no guarantees.
3.) Eric Decker is going to be a borderline WR1
The Decker hype train is off the tracks and heading towards a nuclear plant near you!
The addition of Peyton Manning should solidify the values of both Decker and Demaryius Thomas, but pegging Decker as a borderline WR1 already is a mistake and I’ve seen it being said in some forums.
We still haven’t seen Manning in action and have no idea how healthy he really is. Everyone assumes he’ll be the old Manning, but we can’t believe it until we see it. Besides, there’s little doubt that Thomas is going to be option 1A in the passing offense and Peyton is known for spreading the ball all over the field.
I love Decker’s potential and we LOVE having him in the Dynasty Expert’s League, but the hype needs to be taken down a notch. I can see him safely maintain WR2 value this season, but expecting more is just being greedy.
4.) Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson should be fine at the start of the season
Very dangerous here, gang. While they’re both seemingly recovering very quickly, it typically takes two years before a player returns to form from a torn ACL. Expecting numbers from 2010 from either of these players is going to be a mistake. While it’s possible, it’s just not likely.
5.) Making multiple bad trade offers won’t affect my perception as a coach
This one I love.
Many leagues have that one guy who seemingly disrespects everyone’s intelligence by repeatedly sending horrible trade offers, with the hope that one will somehow be accepted.*
*News flash – your league mates think you’re an idiot.
Personally, I get upset when I get offers like a third round pick and Donald Brown for Ray Rice. I want to crawl into cyberspace and appear on their computer screen to remind them that I KNOW WHAT I’M DOING.
Some say it’s up to the other person to just decline and move on. However, when this is done repeatedly over the years, these coaches get the perception of the team just trying to rip off the league because they think they’re smarter than everyone else.
That’s not a good place to be.
6.) The “experts” are usually right about rookie prospects
Don’t believe all the hype you’ll be reading in the next few weeks. Every offensive player taken in the first three rounds is NOT going to be a star and the undrafted players AREN’T a bunch of scrubs. Pay close attention to what you see in the minicamps and who signs where as undrafted free agents. Arian Foster, anyone?
7.) First round receivers are good bet for production
This list could go on forever with names like Reggie Williams, Charles Rogers, R. Jay Soward, Troy Williamson, Matt Jones, Anthony Gonzalez, Buster Davis and Ted Ginn, Jr..
Wait, that list just went on forever.
8.) Aging veterans don’t have much value
Avoiding aging veterans is a mistake that many novice dynasty owners make. Sure, you don’t want to have a team with an average age in the 30’s – that won’t lend you much of a chance for long-term viability. However, completely shying away from these players leaves you missing opportunities for solid short term production.
Complete rosters contain a core group of solid youngsters, with a nice complement of aging veterans. That, my friends, is a recipe for success. Build from the bottom and groom their future replacements rather than completely avoiding these players like they’re the plague.
9.) Being a dynasty commish is only an in-season job
I saw one person on a message board saying they loved being a dynasty commissioner and it wasn’t bad because it was really only hard work for 17 weeks during the year.
Say what!?!
Being an effective commissioner in a dynasty league is a job with no offseason. The best ones are always in contact with the league to make any applicable changes, walk them through the rookie draft and deal with any impending issues or improvements that need to be made. If I was ever asked to join a league with a commissioner who views their responsibilities in the same way they would a re-draft league, I’d run, not walk away.
10.) We know really quickly if a rookie player is a bust.
For some, this can be true. However, it takes many rookies a long, long time to develop. I was surprised to see the comments in the recent Dynasty Dilemma about Mark Ingram already being traded four or five times in a league. He’s played in ten games!
If you attempt to build through the draft, exhibit some patience. This draft was supposed to be one of the deepest in history, but we won’t truly know that for four or five seasons.
Good luck in your rookie drafts!
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
