Analysis of 2024 Rookie Running Backs By ADP: RBs 13+
As we prepare for the NFL Draft, we now have had time to digest the Scouting Combine and pro day events, so what does the running back landscape look like in 2024? Unlike past years, where there were some clearcut top dogs in the draft, we are left guessing what GMs are thinking about this class.
This year the running back class might be more up in the air than any year I can remember in my last 15 years of playing dynasty fantasy football. Draft capital and landing spots are always important, but it might swing where this class of RBs goes in fantasy drafts more than in any year I can remember.
I am going to run down my top RBs in the class as well as go through my favorite sleepers in this series. I will try to help you analyze and rank the rookie running backs in this year’s draft and decide where to take them in your rookie drafts.
Why should you listen to me? What are my credentials you ask? Good question. Before writing for DLF, I had extensive experience as a sports journalist covering top-level high school football, Division 1 college football in the Big 10, Big 12, and SEC, and I also spent time covering the NFL. After that I spent seven years as a high school varsity running backs coach at my alma mater among other schools. I have learned what characteristics make elite running backs and what causes players to not reach their potential.
I have spent the last few years playing in CFF, C2C, and Devy leagues to get a better grasp of the players coming out of college before they come into the NFL. As is the case with any evaluator, I have my hits and misses. But I am confident in my assessment of these players and their possible success in the NFL.
Now, I would like to introduce you to my grading system for this year’s rankings. This will help you to see where I rank the rookie running backs compared to their ADP on DLF. Below is the ranking system I will be using as well as each grade’s definition.
Grading System:
- A = Elite – Early to late first-round NFL pick
- B = NFL starter – Day two selection, second or third-round pick
- C = RBBC, needs an opportunity – Day three selection, fourth or fifth-round pick
- D = Backup or Specialty back – Day three selection, sixth or seventh-round pick
- F = Longshot – Late pick or undrafted free agent
Frank Gore Jr, RB Southern Miss
Rookie ADP RB13
Gore Jr is the son of former NFL running back great Frank Gore. While Gore Sr played for a loaded Miami team in college, Gore Jr spent his entire career at Southern Miss. Even though he had opportunities to transfer to larger schools, he decided to stay put in Hattiesburg.
Gore will get knocked for playing for a smaller school against what some will say was inferior competition. While that is true to some degree, he did not have a very good team around him. Week in and week out, he was the entire focus of the offense.
In four years at Southern Miss, Gore piled up 4,022 with a 5.3-yards-per-attempt average and 26 rushing touchdowns. Despite below-average offensive line play, he still showed a nice ability to show patience and wait for his blocks to develop. When the blocking up front was solid, he showed the ability to find the crease quickly and burst through the hole for big gains.
He does an excellent job of creating missed tackles in the secondary, anticipating where tacklers are coming from and making nice cutbacks and stutter step moves to add extra yardage to long carries. He does a good job of setting up his blocks at the line of scrimmage and downfield.
Gore ran a decent amount of wildcat in college where he lined up as the quarterback and takes the shotgun snap. While he often ran out of this alignment, he also showed the ability to throw the ball with seven career TD passes.
He runs a bit upright at times but shows some nice wiggle in the hole and when going one-on-one with a defender. He also does a nice job of setting up his blocks, allowing him to get extra yardage at the second level.
Gore caught 75 passes for nearly 700 yards and four TDs in his college career, despite his team having a poor passing attack. He looked solid at the NFL Combine catching the ball with soft hands.
Gore’s biggest knocks are he is a smaller player at 5-8, 201 pounds. He ran a 4.58-second 40-yard dash at his pro day but seems to show better burst and play faster than that on film. I’m higher on him than most scouts. I think he could fight his way into an RB2 with a third-down role at the NFL level. I have him ranked right alongside Bucky Irving in this draft class.
Gore is going near the end of the fourth round in rookie drafts, but I don’t want to take a chance I will miss out on him. I’m grabbing him anywhere from the third round on.
GRADE: C
Emani Bailey, RB TCU
Rookie ADP RB14
Bailey broke out last year at TCU after transferring from Louisiana. He piled up 1,209 yards with eight TDs and 25 receptions for 125 yards, which blew away all his other collegiate years combined.
At 5-7, 202 pounds, he is a smaller running back. He struggled in college to break away from defenders on longer runs. That showed in his 40-yard dash at the combine where he only ran a 4.61-second 40. He has a decent burst in the hole but just doesn’t have that extra gear. He is not a fluid runner. His upper body is going in a lot of different directions when he is running, which slows him down.
Bailey has a really nice jump cut that he uses at every level. It helps him get into the hole and avoid tacklers. He does a nice job following his blocks and letting the play develop before breaking for open grass.
He struggled at times picking his feet up, causing him to trip over his offensive lineman’s feet as well as get shoestring tackled more times than you would like to see. But he does have nice contact balance and strong legs to run through arm tackles and bounce off defenders.
Bailey can try to make too many moves sometimes, slowing him down and allowing defenders to close on him. He does a nice job of taking on blitzers in pass protection, even with his smaller stature.
If he is going to find himself on an NFL roster, he will need to prove he can be a reliable third-down back who can catch the ball and pass protect.
He is a fifth-round flyer for me in rookie drafts, but I will be looking at other players over him.
GRADE: D
Dillon Johnson, RB Washington
Rookie ADP RB15
Johnson burst onto the scene with the success of the Washington Huskies in 2023. With the team winning the Pac-12 and making it to the National Championship game, more eyes were on Johnson, who put together his best collegiate season with 1,113 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns. Unfortunately for him, he was banged up and tried to play through a couple of injuries in the championship game, but he didn’t have much success in the title game.
He is a physical back who runs hard and makes you hit him and wrap up. At 6-0, 217 pounds, he grinds a defense down throughout the game. Johnson doesn’t have the short-yardage burst or top-end speed of a typical top RB at the NFL level. He ran a 4.68-yard 40-yard dash and a 1.62 10-yard split.
But he is a strong player. He had 24 reps in the bench press. He does a nice job of lowering his pad level and making contact with the defender and using his momentum to fall forward. His running style causes him to take a lot of physical punishment. Johnson projects as a backup RB, who can handle short-yardage runs and goal-line carries.
If I haven’t been able to get any RBs in my rookie drafts headed into the end of the fourth round or somewhere in the fifth round I will consider taking Johnson depending on his landing spot.
GRADE: D+
Cody Schrader, RB Missouri
Rookie ADP RB16
Schrader was one of the best stories in the country last season. The former Division II running back at Truman State took a chance on himself and walked on at Missouri. He later earned a scholarship.
In 2023, Schrader burst onto the scene. He was named a First-Team All-American, First-Team All-SEC, and was a finalist for the Doak Walker Award given to the nation’s best running back. All Schrader did was lead the SEC in rushing with a Missouri school record of 1,627 yards and 14 TDs. He averaged 5.9 yards per carry and rushed for a school-record six straight 100-yard games to end the season. He had nine 100-yard games and two 200-yard games on the year. He also had some of his best performances against the top teams in the SEC.
Schrader is a workhorse running back who gets better as the game goes on. Even though he is only 5-8, 202 pounds, he is a tough, hard-nosed runner. He makes one cut and gets north and south.
He has good vision, finding the running lane quickly, making one cut, and bursting through the hole. He is a North-South runner who makes cutbacks only when needed. While he does not have good high-end speed, he has a nice burst. He ran a 4.61-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine but is more explosive on film.
Schrader is deceptively quicker and faster than opposing players think, which allows him to beat some players to the corner, and make some nice cutbacks in the secondary. If he gets to the corner, he does an excellent job of quickly cutting up the sideline when defenders assume he is going to just run out of bounds.
He has short choppy steps. It doesn’t necessarily look pretty, but it can be effective. He won’t break a lot of tackles, but he will drag defenders forward for extra yards.
He is an underrated pass catcher who can make the grab and get to full speed quickly, and will punish defensive backs in the secondary by running them over one play and cutting back in the open field the next play.
Schrader will most likely be a seventh-round pick or priority undrafted free agent, even though I would take him in the fifth or sixth round. He can be an RB2 in the right situation in the NFL. Think of Jaylen Warren of the Pittsburgh Steelers, who went undrafted and has similar attributes with his size, speed, and skillset. Schrader just needs to end up in a similar situation as Warren to flourish at the pro level.
He is going right at the end of rookie drafts, but with a good landing spot, I am looking to take him near the end of the third round or anywhere in the fourth round.
GRADE: C-
- Analysis of 2024 Rookie Running Backs By ADP: RBs 13+ - April 22, 2024
- Analysis of 2024 Rookie Running Backs By ADP: RBs 9-12 - April 19, 2024
- Analysis of 2024 Rookie Running Backs By ADP: RBs 5-8 - April 16, 2024
