Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Justin Herbert, QB LAC

Bruce Matson Posted On May 17, 2020

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.

Name: Justin Herbert

Position: Quarterback

Pro Team: Los Angeles Chargers

College Team: Oregon Ducks

Draft Status: Round one, sixth overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

COMBINE REVIEW

Height: 6’6’’
Weight: 236 pounds
Arms: 32 7/8’’
Hands: 10’’
40-yard dash: 4.68
Vertical jump: 35.5’’
Broad jump: 123’’
Three-cone drill: 7.06
20-yard shuttle: 4.46

STRENGTHS

Has a gun for an arm and can effortlessly sling the rock all over the football field.
Can maintain poise in the pocket while going through his progressions.
Sells the play-action with ease.
More than capable of running zone-reads and has the mobility to scramble out of the pocket when pressured.
Has a big body with prototypical size for the quarterback position.
Experienced at making pre-snap reads to manipulate coverages and matchup advantages against the defense.
Can make clutch tough-to-make throws in high-pressured situations.

WEAKNESSES

Lacks consistent touch on the deep ball.
Doesn’t fully trust what he sees on the field, causing his throws to not make its destination on time.
Occasionally will panic when pressured, forcing him to make an irrational mistake.
Pocket awareness is off and on. For the most part, he can maneuver the pocket but there are times he loses the feel of the pocket and gets caught off guard by the pass rush.
Inconsistent mechanics hamper his accuracy and cause him to be off the mark on some of his throws.

OPPORTUNITIES

Philip Rivers is gone, leaving just journeyman Tyrod Taylor in Herbert’s way from becoming the team’s starting quarterback. The Chargers spent the sixth overall pick to make him the franchise quarterback. The team will go out of its way to make sure Herbert will get everything he needs to become successful. If anything, he will get multiple opportunities to prove himself before the team decides to kick the can and move on to another project.

There are a lot of pieces already in place for Herbert. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will ease his transition in the passing. With Hunter Henry, he has an experienced tight end to use as a security blanket. Austin Ekeler is one of the best check-down options in the league and has the talent to bail him out of tuff situations if he gets the ball in space.

According to Spotrac, the franchise has $24.338 million in cap space which is the sixth most in the league. They have the funds to make a splash in free agency or through trade in the near future. Chargers are in a position to build around their new franchise quarterback.

THREATS

Pro Football Focus ranked the Chargers’ offensive line second-worst in the league in pass blocking. Although the team made some recent moves by adding Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner this off-season, there’s still a lot of work the team needs to do with the offensive line. This could be a problem for a rookie starter.

Ultimately, there’s a very good chance the team starts the 2020 season with Taylor as their starting QB. At times, he has proven to be a serviceable starter. If Taylor plays well, then Herbert might have to wait before he gets his chance.

His development might be left on the back burner if there are delays that prevent the Chargers from conducting training camp this summer. This could cause him to miss crucial time developing with his new team, preventing him from being under center during the early portion of his rookie season.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

It’s a safe bet Taylor will open the season as the team’s starting quarterback. Taylor’s play will dictate when Herbert will get the opportunity to start. There’s a high likelihood that he will take over as the starter during the middle of the season, but don’t be surprised we don’t see him taking the field until after the Chargers are out of playoff contention.

We are going to see where Herbert is at in his development early in his career. Like most young quarterback prospects, the chances are high that he struggles during the first few games of his career as he’s getting up to speed to the NFL game. Even if he endures a rocky start, I do expect him to flash his talent by converting a few deep balls to his receivers.

He’s starting his career with a lot of talent around him. Herbert might hit the ground running and surpass everyone’s expectations. His mobility could provide just enough of a floor to make him a reliable fantasy asset. Look for him to exceed expectations if the player around him can pick up the slack. Herbert is not a pro-ready prospect. Sitting behind Taylor for a short period of time, learning the finer nuances of the game could greatly impact his career.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Herbert will be the team’s starting quarterback for at least a few seasons. I suspect him to be good enough to hold on to the job for quite some time. His long-term player value possesses a high ceiling combined with a basement-level floor.

A player with his arm talent paired with some high-end receiving weapons could allow him to develop into a low-end QB1 in fantasy. On the contrary, given the up and down nature of his play, it’s not outside the realm of possibilities that he fizzles out of the league. If he lands in the middle of the arbitrary spectrum, then he’s likely going to be a mid-level QB2 during the majority of his career with many peaks and valleys.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

Herbert draws a lot of comparables to Carson Wentz. Both players are similar in stature and have big-time arm talent. They both are mobile enough to create yardage on the ground if the play breaks down. Wentz also had accuracy issues coming out of college with a career 64.1 percent completion rate against FCS-level competition during his tenure at North Dakota State.

Another player who compares to Herbert is Drew Lock. Just like Herbert, when the pocket breaks down, Lock has the tendency to toss a few head-scratching “YOLO” balls while under duress. Both players have a cannon for an arm and enough mobility to extend the play when needed.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

According to DLF’s superflex rookie rankings, Herbert is being valued as the ninth player off the board. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are usually the first two. We then typically see a run on running backs with CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy mixed in. Considering he’s a quarterback with top-ten draft capital, Herbert is a screaming value for a dynasty team that needs to add depth at the quarterback position.

Depending on your team’s needs, I’m comfortable drafting him anywhere between the middle to late portion of the first round. However, if you don’t need to add another quarterback to your roster then you might want to consider fading him for one of the top wide receivers or running backs in the draft. It’s hard to ignore the opportunity of Cam Akers and Jalen Reagor along with some of the other top skilled players who will be on the board.

Traditional one-quarterback leagues are a different story. Since the position holds less value, we will see Herbert fall to the third round of rookie drafts while still being drafted well behind Burrow and Tagovailoa. He is the 27th player off the board in DLF’s Top 50 Rookie Rankings. Depending on how your draft shakes up, you should see him get selected somewhere in that range.

He’s a discounted value in one-quarterback leagues. The fear of missing out from one of the top players from the other skill positions in this rookie class mounts on a lot of fantasy gamer’s shoulders, making him a cheap investment in rookie drafts. He’s a safer asset in this range because we know he’s going to hold his value for the next couple of years. On the contrary, the odds of him ever developing into a top-25 dynasty asset is highly unlikely.

Herbert isn’t an elite-level talent, but he holds significant draft capital for the quarterback position. We should see him take over under center sooner than later. He’s without a shadow of a doubt the Charger’s future franchise quarterback. That being said, Herbert should be closely monitored in all rookie drafts.

Author
Recent Posts

Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.