2018 Rookie Profile: Justin Jackson, RB Northwestern

Richard Jenkins Posted On March 29, 2018

Saquon Barkley, Derrius Guice, Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, etc.…….we all know where this list is going. The 2018 rookie class is bursting at the seams with talent overload. The physical traits of Barkley, aggressiveness of Guice, the toughness of John Kelly, and the stat-machine Rashaad Penny are all that we have heard about this off-season. But lost in this room filled to capacity of future NFL stars is the third-leading rusher in Big 10 history, Justin Jackson. What makes Jackson an intriguing prospect? Does he have a future in the league? Let’s take a journey into his profile.

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Production Profile

screen shot 2018 03 28 at 12.49.49

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

What immediately jumps off of this graphic is Jackson’s terrific rushing line. His WORST season was as a freshman when he rushed for a mere 1,187 yards, caught 22 passes and totaled 11 touchdowns. Jackson only got better as his career progressed and he peaked as a junior with 1,524 yards rushing, 35 receptions, and 15 touchdowns.

It is certainly worth noting that all of this production was accomplished on a terrible Northwestern offense, also in a Power Five conference. During his tenure in Evanston, Northwestern ranked 107th, 116th, 73rd, and 55th in total offense making the former four-star recruit’s (247sports) offensive contribution even that more impressive. Jackson walks away from Northwestern as a two-time Big 10 All-Conference player, the leader in every major rushing statistical category at NU, and the tenth-leading rusher in NCAA Division I history.

Game Tape

When I watch Jackson play, it is apparent that he is a change of pace running back. His quick burst and small frame make him a mismatch for linebackers on third down, and his receiving ability (122 career catches) will certainly bolster his chances of catching on with a club. On the ground, Jackson is able to hide behind his lineman and makes subtle jump cuts to create an escape from the defenders. He is an elusive runner who can turn a three-yard screen pass into a 50-yard touchdown by using his natural playmaking ability.

At 5’11”, 193 pounds, it is apparent he lacks the size it takes to become an every-down player. He has a small lower body and often relies on his jukes and jump cuts rather than hitting the hole-and-go. Jackson lacks the size of a bruising runner but he has shown great durability, never missing a college game despite nearly 1,300 total touches.

Measurables

Justin Jackson’s spider chart via Mock Draftable has a unique look to it. It resembles that of the third-down or “pass catching” back the NFL teams covet. As expected Jackson ranked very well in the categories that relied on speed and quickness, posting an 86th-percentile or better in the 3-Cone Drill, 20 Yard Shuttle and 60 Yard Shuttle.

His spider chart also closely resembles that of Christian McCaffrey, Wendell Smallwood, and Kenjon Barner, all whom play the part of a change of pace/third down running back. Jackson also ran a 4.52 forty time at the NFL combine (71st-percentile) which was less than desired for a player with his skillset. His mediocre 40-time left him with a speed score of 92.5 (35th-percentile).

Dynasty Value

The March 2018 rookie ADP data from DLF has Jackson as the 37th (RB15) player taken in the rookie mock drafts conducted by Ryan McDowell. Jackson has been drafted as high as 25th and as low as 49th, and like other players in his area, his dynasty value will remain muddy for some time. Unless his landing spot is terrific (Buffalo, maybe?) I would not pay more than a fourth-round rookie pick for him. There are too many other intriguing options with more immediate fantasy potential in the first three rounds of rookie drafts.

Conclusion

Currently, Justin Jackson is being projected to be a sixth-seventh round NFL draft pick. It is likely that he will catch on with whatever team drafts him based solely on his receiving potential (122 college receptions is pretty good). It is also possible that a team will select him based on his speed purely for special team’s depth. In a deeper league Jackson will certainly merit an end of roster stash, but at this time he is not worth any equitable draft capital.

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