Rookie SWOT: Patrick Mahomes

Adam Tzikas Posted On June 7, 2017

Editor’s Note: DLF is proud to bring you an annual staple series – the Rookie SWOT. These articles cover the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats involved with rookies now that they’ve been drafted. Make sure you check out the DLF Rookie Draft Guide for all the information you need to dominate your rookie drafts.

Patrick Mahomes Rookie SWOT Dynasty Player Profile

Name: Patrick Mahomes II

Position: Quarterback

Pro Team: Kansas City Chiefs

College Team: Texas Tech

Draft Status: First round, Pick 10

Video Highlights

Combine Review

Height: 6’2” (30th percentile)
Weight: 225 (59th)
Hands: 9 1/4” (26th)
Arms: 33 1/4“ (82nd)
40-yard: 4.80s (63rd)
20-yard shuttle: 4.08s (93rd)
3 cone: 6.88s (83rd)
Vert: 30” (33rd)
Broad: 114” (72nd)
Wonderlic: 24 (17th)
Throw Velocity: 60mph (98th)

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Strengths

Arm Strength: With a 98th percentile throw velocity, this is obviously the first strength that jumps out. Mahomes has a cannon for an arm and can make all the throws needed in the NFL. He has the zip to fit throws into the tight windows that are all you get at the pro level.
Decent Wheels: Mahomes has a solid burst score and a great agility score – over 90th percentile. This shows on tape with his ability to extend plays and on designed runs. Combine this with his arm strength and he can make throws from awkward and off-balance positions.
High Volume Offense: In today’s NFL, passing on nearly every down is almost the norm, Mahomes experience in the spread offense ran at Texas Tech gets him ready for these types of schemes. Texas Tech ranked first in pass attempts in 2016, second in ’15, and fifth in ’14. This lead Mahomes to the top of all of college football in passing yards (by a whopping 400 yards) in 2016.

Weaknesses

Patrick Mahomes: His biggest weakness is himself. Mahomes’ decision-making is potentially one of the worst in the class. He often takes risks for the deep ball and the big play, when maybe checking down or throwing the ball away is better. He will need a lot of coaching to bring this under control.
Bailing early: Mahomes often leaves the pocket as soon as his first read is covered which gives me slight flashbacks to one Johnny Manziel. Mahomes isn’t nearly as bad and I think he will be totally coachable on this aspect.
Arm Strength: While this is a major advantage, his throw speed can cause his passes to go over the heads of targets, which at the pro level leads to interceptions. His strength here will need some molding to be comfortable with the throws that require touch, not brute force.

Opportunities

Pat has all the opportunity in the world in Kansas City. The incumbent, Alex Smith, is not a free agent till 2019, but is completely cuttable at the end of this year. Smith would be due 17 million dollars in 2018, but would only cost nine million in dead cap if he was cut. Smith has also been mentioned as a trade chip, linked to a few different teams before the draft. If Mahomes shows what the coaching staff likes and there’s an injury early to a starter for another team. It could be a special opportunity for Mahomes.

Another key opportunity is to play in an Andy Reid offense. While it’s been a rushing affair as of late, during his 14 years in Philadelphia, Reid’s offenses were in the top ten in pass attempts seven times and in the top twenty twelve times. With a gunslinger mentality Mahomes could be an even better fit for a typical Reid offense.

Threats

Alex Smith is a threat either way. He has shown a proclivity to be slow and steady as a quarterback but that has been working for him. The Chiefs have had a 41-20 record with Smith at the helm, with four playoff appearances. While QB wins is a weak stat, Smith has done well for the team and If they want to keep a high floor type player as their prime signal caller, Smith could still see an extension, leaving Mahomes to the ride bench.

While this was hit on in the weakness section, Mahomes can be a threat to himself. If he chooses not to respond to the coaching he needs, or falls back on old tendencies, he will not succeed in the league.

Short-Term Expectations

Not great. I think Smith could play out the rest of his contract and Mahomes won’t be taking over starting duties until the 2019 season. Besides an injury, I don’t think the odds are great for Mahomes to see time in his rookie year. That being said, anything can happen. Last year Carson Wentz looked to be the third string player going into training camp, but started the entire season. We know anything can happen in the NFL if you can play.

Long-Term Expectations

It’s not hard to tell that Mahomes has the highest ceiling of all the rookie quarterbacks, especially when looking from a fantasy perspective. He has that gunslinger mentality with the arm strength to back it up. He can run a high-volume offense with high proficiency as well. Long-term, I see Mahomes being a high level starting quarterback. That will only happen if he gets his decision making under control and responds to coaching.

NFL Comparison

It’s a little too easy to see shades of Brett Favre in Mahomes. He has that same mentality when it comes to conducting an offense. Go for broke and if it goes your way, great. If not, try again on the next possession.

Projected Range in Rookie Drafts

In standard 1QB leagues, Mahomes comes off the board in the early third round, often as the second quarterback taken. If superflex and 2QB leagues he’s been coming off the board anywhere from the mid first round to early second round. His high ceiling keeps him higher than some or all of the other rookie QBs. He’s a great QB for a competing team that has older starters.

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Adam Tzikas

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Adam "StickyZ" Tzikas burns in the South Florida sun while he contemplates tweets no one will read. He is an avid nerd and hosts an IDP podcast with a bloke from the UK.