The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Truth: Week 10
One of the things we as human beings tend to do an awful lot of in our lives is react to the things we see around us. Often times this is a good thing. For example, if a car just so happens to be driving down the same sidewalk you are walking on, you better get out of the way! That’s definitely a good reaction.
There is another side of the coin, though – that is the gross overreaction which is becoming more and more common into today’s world, thanks in part to social media. This isn’t just in life but also in the world of fantasy football. It isn’t uncommon for the smallest of things are blown way out of proportion. Other times what should be a minor blip on the radar gets way more attention than it deserves. There are also times when we ignore all of the warning signs and try to stay the course, not realizing we are heading for a cliff. Don’t worry though, because I’m here to help with these very things.
Each week I will examine a player or sometimes multiple players to see if their value is on par with what people are talking about. Often times this will be a player who “breaks out” the previous week and might be getting a lot of attention in trade talks or on the waiver wire. Other times it might be a player who received a lot of hype during the off-season who isn’t living up to expectations. Regardless of what it is, I’ll be doing my best to steer you in the right direction and get you a step ahead of your leaguemates.
Keep in mind that no one is perfect. After all, I told you to ignore Justin Forsett after opening weekend last year. Hey, we all make mistakes, but I like to think I’ve had a pretty good track record over the years of doing this. Two years ago, I was one of the first to lay out why you needed to trade Trent Richardson for whatever you could get, much like the Browns had done a week or two before. At the time I was blasted by readers, but if you listened you sold before his value crashed. I was also dead on with Larry Donnell fading down the stretch, Allen Hurns being good enough to stay ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart, Antone Smith being little more than a rarely used homerun hitter, and countless other takes from the last few years. Moral of the story, I miss from time-to-time like everyone else, but I feel I get it right much more often. When I’m wrong, I’ll own that mistake.
This time of year it is starting to get a little difficult to find players who are suddenly “breaking out”. Plus, a lot of owners are starting to realize they aren’t playoff material this year and are shifting their focus to next year. So I’m going to switch gears ever so slightly and try to start looking at one player each who has far exceeded expectations to see what the future might hold for them. This week I’m going to take a look at one of my all-time favorite players, Larry Fitzgerald.
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Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI
Season stats: 65 receptions on 85 targets for 836 yards and 7 touchdowns.
On pace for: 116 receptions on 151 targets for 1,486 yards and 12 touchdowns.
My fondness for Fitzgerald has a rather long history. It dates back to his high school years and the fact that he grew up in my home state of Minnesota. I was fortunate enough to see him play football in person when he was in high school. My love of Fitz was further cemented when he was my first round selection in my very first startup, and he helped lead my team to the playoff finals. When you mix in his love of the game and him playing it “the right way”, he’s pretty far up my list in terms of favorite players.
For those reasons, it has been especially painful to watch Fitzgerald struggle for the three years prior to this one. There have been a lot of reasons for these struggles. The biggest of which are John Skelton, Kevin Kolb, Ryan Lindley, Brian Hoyer, Drew Stanton and Logan Thomas. They are also known as some of the starters at quarterback for the Cardinals during the 2012-2014 seasons. It isn’t entirely their fault because Fitz did have a healthy Carson Palmer for all of the 2013 season and still fell short of 1,000 yards receiving (he had 954), but they are a big reason for his regression. With Fitz turning 32 just as this season kicked off, most had written him off as a past his prime receiver who is more of a matchup play than the every week stud he was in the late 2000s.
If you are one of the few who stuck by Fitz, possibly out of purely sentimental value like me in a few leagues, you have definitely been rewarded this season. His current pace has him setting career highs in receptions, yards and tying his second best season for touchdowns. That’s even more impressive when you realize we are talking about a guy who had one of the best five year stretches for a wide receiver in the history of the league. From 2007-2011 Fitz racked up 463 receptions for 6,480 yards and 49 touchdowns. That’s a five year average of almost 93 catches for 1,296 yards and just short of 10 touchdowns.
This could be his best season ever, and we aren’t talking about him at all. It is almost like some people don’t realize just how good he has been this season. I realize he is 32 years old, but he’s currently sitting 31 in our receiver rankings, which is much lower than I think he deserves. Sure, this could be one last brilliant flash before he rides off into the sunset on his way to Canton, but it could also be a resurrection. The question is which one is it?
The Good: Before Antonio Brown was Mr. Consistent in the NFL wide receiver ranks it was Larry Fitzgerald. In the late 2000s, he was the receiver you knew was going to get you 5+ receptions for 60+ yards and a solid chance at a touchdown each and every week. This season he has returned to that form with at least five receptions for 58 yards in all but one game this season. He has reestablished himself as the go to guy for the Cardinals and the team is flourishing as a result.
The emergence of other weapons in the passing game has also helped Fitz out. During his prime, Fitz had the athletic ability to beat defenses even if they threw triple coverage at him. At his current age, he isn’t quite as explosive as he used to be. Meaning he can’t beat those triple coverages. The good news is with the other receivers starting to come into their own, he doesn’t need to either. Combine that with an improved offensive line and you have the perfect environment for Fitzgerald to be successful.
The Bad: The argument against Fitzgerald being a valuable asset past the current season is centered largely around his age. He’s currently 32 years old and will be 33 by the time the 2016 season kicks off. We all know the physical prime for athletes is in their middle to late 20s, and Fitz is a ways past that now. Not only is he getting up there in years he started in the NFL at age 20. This is his twelfth year in the league. With the number of catches he’s made and hits he has taken, it is fair to wonder how much longer he can and is willing to go.
Injuries have also been a little bit more common for Fitzgerald over recent years than they used to be. Although he normally plays through almost anything, they are becoming a little bit more frequent which is a bit of a concern. This could be a sign he is starting to break down a little bit, though he has been perfectly healthy this year.
The other major concern is the quarterback situation. I mentioned the list of quarterbacks at the start who Fitz had to deal with during his “dark times.” Carson Palmer isn’t exactly a spring chicken. He’ll turn 36 just prior to the end of the season. Even though he is signed through the 2018 season, the question is how long he can continue to play at his current level. As we’ve seen with Peyton Manning, the end can come very, very quickly for a quarterback. If the same thing happens to Palmer, or he goes down with another major injury, what will that do to an aging Fitzgerald? He was highly productive in 2011 with nothing at the quarterback position, but he isn’t the same receiver now he was back then.
The Ugly Truth: Fitzgerald is definitely aging, and it is showing signs in his game. While he was never the fastest receiver in the league by any stretch of the imagination, he did produce the big play from time to time. His yards per reception and his ability to make those huge plays has diminished over recent years. However, he has redefined himself and his game into being the best possession receiver in the league. He has one of the best pair of hands in the league, is with the best of the best when it comes to route running and has field awareness and body control most receivers can only dream of. His game isn’t currently and never was overly reliant on speed, which means he is going to age better than other elite receivers.
Not only is he going to age better in terms of his skills adapting to his aging body, but Fitzgerald’s work ethic and training regimen is legendary. There is a reason receivers all over the league flock to Minnesota in the offseason to work with Larry. There is also a reason so many of those receivers come back and have great years. He works harder than just about anyone else in the league. This is going to give him a leg up as he continues through his 30s.
In terms of skills and work ethic, one of the best comparisons I can find for Fitz is the great Jerry Rice. Much like Rice, Fitz is a receiver with tremendous work ethic who isn’t overly reliant on speed. Rice had the best season of his career at age 33. After that season, he topped 75 receptions five more times and compiled more than 1,000 receiving yards four more times. In fact, Rice’s age 40 season saw him produce 92 receptions for 1,211 yards and seven scores. While I’m not going to be so bold as to predict another eight years of Fitzgerald, I think he is the perfect mix of talent, skills and work ethic that he could still be a very solid WR2 five years from now.
Final Verdict: He is aging and father time is undefeated. However, I think Fitzgerald has what it takes to be the exception. I think his ceiling is going to be determined by who is throwing him the ball, but there isn’t any reason he can’t be a very good WR2 for your fantasy team for the next 3-5 seasons. I think he is going to age much better than a lot of other receivers.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
