The Dynasty Trading Post: Ghosts of Dynasty Past

Eric Burtzlaff Posted On September 16, 2015

ghostpost
We’ve all seen A Christmas Carol and know the story pretty well. Scrooge isn’t nice to basically everyone in his life and while he sleeps on Christmas Eve, he has to see all the terrible things he’s done (or will do) in the past, present and future. On the NFL’s eve, I found myself pondering a very similar thought. What am I going to do different this season that makes me a better player in Dynasty? Unlike Scrooge, I had a twitter account (not a giant muppet ghost) taking me down memory lane.
I posed the following question:

If you could go back in 2012 and undo one terrible dynasty decision you made, what would it be?

— Eric Burtzlaff (@DynastyTrades) September 10, 2015

I wanted some comfort for some of the terrible moves I’ve made in the past and be reminded of common pitfalls I will be avoiding this year. And boy, Twitter delivered as always. This article is going to be discussing some of the trades and lessons associated with these trades.

@DynastyTrades Not clicking “accept” when I was offered Le’Veon Bell for Montee Ball. </thread> — MGiraldi (@MGiraldi) September 10, 2015

Right off the get-go, I get hit with this gem. I’ve personally seen a similar trade go down in my leagues as this was a 2014 Season pick’em for all intents and purposes. Ball was supposed to be the next amazing back out of Denver after analysts couldn’t correctly predict Willis MacGahee or Knowshon Moreno. We totally had it figured out as a community in 2014. Montee Ball was going to be sweet.
You might think the lesson here directly relates to being cautious of CJ Anderson’s rising dynasty stock. I’m not sure that’s actually a good lesson to pull here. The coaching staff changed in Denver and Kubiak isn’t exactly known for doing a running back by committee thing. Specifically, I feel pretty confident about CJ Anderson being a valuable dynasty asset this time next year. The lesson here is be very wary of trading for the “heir apparent” in the NFL. Fetch isn’t going to happen and neither will Christine Michael. There will be example of this similar this year, mark my words.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

@DynastyTrades David Wilson

— Dan Sainio (@FFDynastyDan) September 10, 2015

Saying David Wilson’s name to someone high on him in 2012 is a verbal kick in the junk. I won’t harp too much on Wilson as I really don’t think there’s a lesson to be learned from his story. It’s more highly unfortunate for a very promising young running back. There is no way to predict injuries in the NFL especially not career ending ones. The lesson is don’t kick yourself and move on.

@DynastyTrades traded Ty Hilton for m leshoure — Bret Cowan (@bmaverick18) September 10, 2015

This is another cringe worthy trade, but one that was totally understandable at the time. I’m not 100% certain of when the trade transpired but the values would be similar at the end of LeShoure’s mediocre 2012 campaign for essentially a mid-3rd round rookie pick (T.Y.). Trading players who you don’t believe are talented (Leshoure) or long-term dynasty assets for a player with upside is typically a smart gamble. Here’s an example, this off-season I traded Charles Sims for a 2nd round pick. Is it possible that second round pick is a complete bust? Of course. Do I think it’s likely that Sims will be irrelevant or out of the league in two years? I do. I think this Hilton trade is very similar to that. He got very lucky that Hilton panned out, but regardless, it would have been pretty tough to really lose that trade.

@DynastyTrades trading Marshawn Lynch for Trent Richardson…

— Chadwiko Menendez (@ChadwikoRCC) September 10, 2015

@DynastyTrades Trading up to 1.01 for TRich — Vault_Hunter.exe (@papalazarou1999) September 10, 2015

I don’t really have a lesson for these trades. Richardson basically tricked the entire fantasy community. Everyone wrote off his terrible yards per carry as a part of him playing on the Browns. Don’t feel bad, even the real life Colts fell for this fool’s gold.

@DynastyTrades taking Justin Blackmon with the 1.4

— Brad Parrish (@BeRad48) September 10, 2015

@DynastyTrades Josh Gordon… — Curtis Carnell (@CBold052) September 10, 2015

Drafting or trading for players with character concerns is one of the quickest ways to find yourself in a deep state of regret. With the way the NFL deals out suspensions, a player who is a knucklehead is going to quickly find their way out of the league no matter how talented they are. I’ve been burned by tons of Josh Gordon shares myself. I have found myself being a bit more risk adverse unless my roster is in need of some high risk upside. The key is really looking into their “knucklehead-ness.” Are they terrible people or just really stupid college kids? Stupid college kids can grow up, terrible people rarely turn into respectable humans.

@DynastyTrades gotta take a deep breath before this one… gave jordy, got chris ivory

— hoss bonaventure (@yawnSwanson) September 10, 2015

Trading your injured stud for a fire-sale price is a classic mistake that happens after every major injury. This trade could end up working out given Ivory’s role this year and Nelson’s injury, but that’s not the point. Avoiding being too reactionary right after a high profile injury is a struggle of every dynasty owner. Your world gets rocked and suddenly a flurry of “sell-low” trade offers that could keep you competitive this year. My advice give yourself some time to get off “tilt”. Take a couple of weeks and you’ll likely realize that holding your damaged asset is going to be the most profitable play. Patience is a massive virtue in dynasty.

This dynasty trading post was written just as much for me as it was for you. It got a little preachy towards the end. Reminding myself of mistakes I’ve made along the way is one of the best ways I get better at this game. I hope you feel the same way. If you need therapy, posting your terrible trade in the comments is a good place to accept your mistake and start learning from it.

Good luck and Merry Christmas (Happy NFL Regular Season), Tiny Tim (Tebow)!

[/am4show]