DLF’s Weekly Impact Events

This time of year is the eye of the offseason hurricane. We were already bombarded by the gusts of free agency (and what a crazy week it was), and now we prepare to be blowin’ in the wind, in the NFL Draft. These few weeks in between are basically the calm in between, the eye of the storm. Not all is silent in the homes of the neighborhood which is the NFL. Some teams are patching windows and doors, preparing for the winds of change, while others are stocking their cabinets with the canned goods of the end of free agency.

This is the perfect time to gauge your opponents’ opinions of their current players’ value. There are plenty of deals to be had if your league mates are overvaluing your assets or undervaluing their own. Be sure to check out our updated rankings for an overview of who gained and lost over the eventful free agency period.

Onto the news!

Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
News: Peterson reportedly has refused to meet with Minnesota Vikings General Manager, Rick Spielman.

[inlinead]Analysis: Since joining the league in 2007, no other running back has scored more fantasy points than Peterson. He has been a fantasy champion on many teams in many leagues, but the times, they are a changing in Minnesota. Peterson and Vikings upper management have been at odds since Peterson’s legal woes began. Vikings brass insists they have no interest in the 30-year old running back, but where smoke blows, there is usually fire. They seem to be set on telling Peterson “You ain’t goin’ nowhere.”

Peterson is currently being drafted as the RB16 (57 overall), and I view that as a reasonable ranking given his situation. Even if he were to be traded or released, what situation would be beneficial to him? The Arizona Cardinals seem to be interested, but without a release they could ship every grain of sand in the state, it may not be enough for the Vikings to part ways. Unless there is a release, and the Dallas Cowboys come calling, I can’t see a way I’d justify paying higher than his current price.

If you’re a Peterson owner and you can get equivilent value to a fourth round startup pick, I’d say “don’t think twice.” It’s alright to be a buyer if an owner wants to sell him on the cheap, though.

Charles Clay, TE BUF
News: The Buffalo Bills sign Clay to a five year $38 million deal with $20 million in guarantees.

Analysis: I’m personally surprised at the contract Clay received. Over the last two years, he has combined to be the TE16. He’ll almost certainly be overdrafted in fantasy now, given his contract. His best season in Miami netted 69 catches for only 759 yards and six touchdowns – those aren’t horrible numbers for a player who was likely second on your fantasy depth chart, but if you can trade him, it will most likely go your way.

He’s no longer catching passes from Ryan Tannehill, and march mocks show Clay being drafted as the TE21 (167 overall). I promise you, though, he’ll be drafted higher in April. Wait for your opportunity to sell, then do so.

Zach Ertz, TE PHI
News: Philadelphia Eagles Head Coach, Chip Kelly, insists Ertz could see more playing time in the absence of Jeremy Maclin.

Analysis: I had to look on my back pages of notes to find this gem. Kelly has a plan for his skill position players, and don’t forget, Ertz was selected just out of the first round in the 2013 NFL Draft (#35 overall). The 2014 season was forgettable for Ertz, sure, but I implore you to remember the week 16 game against the Washington Redskins in which he caught 15 balls for 115 yards. With the type of volume he saw that week, imagine what he could do over a whole season as a primary threat. Things have changed in Philadelphia and Ertz may just be the beneficiary.

LeSean McCoy, RB BUF
News: Buffalo Bills Head Coach, Rex Ryan, says “We’re going to run it 50 times if we can.”

Analysis: Will “we’re going to run it 50 times” become the new “we’re going to run it until [CJ Spiller] pukes” in Buffalo? While coaches are liars, Ryan does love to run the ball. Also, Buffalo just gave McCoy a huge contract, so they do have incentive to give him plenty of looks.

McCoy was drafted as the RB3 in March mocks, never making it to the third round. I see the allure dropping in April as much of the data gathered in March was before his trade. I moved McCoy behind DeMarco Murray and if you can acquire Murray straight up for McCoy, I want you to do so. McCoy is in a far worse offense with arguably less talent. Despite missing time, he has actually outscored McCoy over the last three years in PPR leagues. It would be shame if you let Ryan Mathews get in the way of being a Murray fan, as great running backs only come around once in a blue moon.

Greg Jennings, WR FA
News: The Carolina Panthers have reportedly hosted Jennings in Carolina.

Analysis: Teams aren’t necessarily waiting all along the watchtower in hopes Jennings will save their team, but I can’t help falling in love with Carolina as a potential suitor. There’s plenty of opportunity to be had as I doubt Kelvin Benjamin will ever see 145 targets again if he continues to post a 50.3% catch rate. Outside of Benjamin and Greg Olsen, there’s too much of nothing in the way of receiving talent. There’s plenty of reason to still like Jennings as an end of the roster type player in your fantasy league, and is worth a waiver wire add or a late round selection.

If you’ve been following my work over the last few years, you know I like to hide some “Easter eggs” in my writing. Most of you have probably noticed a few in this article alone, but did you realize how many there were?

The partners at DLF have been kind enough to offer you a three month premium membership if you can be the first to find all thirteen Easter eggs hidden in this piece. It shouldn’t be difficult to figure the theme, but finding each egg may prove to be a daunting task. For this contest I’ve created a separate e-mail address to which you can send your responses. Contact me at [email protected] even if you haven’t discovered all thirteen. If after a week, no one has discovered them all, I will select the person with the most, and they will collect the prize.

Happy hunting!

Follow me on Twitter @KarlSafchick

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