Dynasty League Football

Dynasty

DLF’s Weekly Impact Events: Free Agency Edition

mccoy

Today’s Impact Events will be very different from the way I’ve done the series in the past. Due to the vast amount of information to cover, I will not go as in depth into each singing and trade. I also had to determine which moves were most prevalent to the dynasty community, so I left a few players of lesser consequence like DeAngelo Williams and Darren McFadden out.

It is important to take a glimpse into the dynasty future of these players, but for more thorough investigation into these players’ dynasty value, check out some of the Instant Analysis pieces on the site, or check out the free agent blog.

Julius Thomas, TE JAX

News: The Jacksonville Jaguars inked Thomas to a five-year $46 million contract with $24 million guaranteed.

Analysis: Thomas played with Peyton Manning for his entire career, which is a boost for anyone’s value. A Blake Bortles thrown football is not the same as a Manning thrown ball, but there isn’t reason to panic just yet. In the past two seasons, Thomas has only seen a total of 152 targets. For comparison, the top fantasy tight end each of the last two years has seen 131 and 142 respectively. While he may be less efficient in Jacksonville, Thomas could see more targets than he grew accustomed to seeing in Denver.

Jimmy Graham, TE SEA

News: The Seattle Seahawks traded Max Unger and a 2015 first round pick to the New Orleans Saints for Graham and a 2015 fourth round pick.

[inlinead]Analysis: The unrivaled opinion is Graham’s value takes a huge hit in Seattle. I made an argument earlier in the week in which I explain why his value doesn’t drop as far as many believe. Seattle has been well known for their running game, but when you bring in one of the greatest tight ends of all time, you throw him the ball.

DeMarco Murray, RB PHI

News: The Philadelphia Eagles signed Murray to a five-year $42 million deal with $21 million guaranteed.

Analysis: Murray goes from what was perceived to be the best running back situation in all of football to the unknown of Philadelphia. The Eagles offensive line is among the best in the league, but with so many players rumored to be on the trading block in Philadelphia, who knows which players will still be there? When healthy, though, the Eagles offensive line is superb. In 2013, LeSean McCoy was the ppr RB2 and had the second highest YPC behind only Murray.

LeSean McCoy, RB BUF

News: The Buffalo Bills traded Kiko Alonso to the Philadelphia Eagles for McCoy.

Analysis: This cannot be viewed as an upgrade for McCoy in many ways, but I’m an optimist, so let’s try. The Bills went on to sign McCoy to a five-year, $40 million contract with $26.5 million in guarantees, so he now has more financial security than before. We also know Rex Ryan is committed to running the ball, and when Matt Cassel is your starting QB, you probably want to run the ball as much as possible.

Torrey Smith, WR SF

News: The San Francisco 49ers signed Smith to a five-year, $40 million deal with $22 million guaranteed.

Analysis: Smith is a deep threat and enters into an offense with Colin Kaepernick who, like Joe Flacco, has one of the strongest arms in the league. Smith will fit nicely into the 49ers offense and I don’t see much in the change of his dynasty value one way or the other.

Jeremy Maclin, WR KC

News: The Kansas City Chiefs signed Maclin to a five-year, $55 million contract with $22.5 million guaranteed.

Analysis: There’s really no other way around it – Maclin got overpaid. His dynasty value certainly takes a hit since the Chiefs haven’t thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver since 2013. Most don’t understand how bad the receivers have been in Kansas City, though. Maclin provides a huge upgrade to the group, and will probably outperform his ADP data due to all the people who hate Alex Smith.

Frank Gore, RB IND

News: The Indianapolis Colts signed Gore to a three-year, $12 million contract with $7.5 million guaranteed.

Analysis: There’s probably not too much long-term value for the soon to be 32-year old, but he surely has some value to be had in 2015. The Colts don’t have much in the way of competition for Gore, but you’d think they’ll be candidates for drafting a young running back in the draft. If you’re a rebuilding dynasty team, steer clear of Gore. If you’re a competitor, his March ADP of 198 (RB66) is enticing. Those numbers will surely be on the rise, as they were compiled before the signing.

Andre Johnson, WR IND

News: The Indianapolis Colts and Johnson agreed on a three-year, $21 million contract.

Analysis: Johnson is another player who the Colts probably view as a band aid on their offense rather than a long-term solution. Johnson will turn 34 years old before the 2015 regular season, but does offer value to a dynasty team looking for a championship piece. The Colts plan to throw the ball and Johnson could hold off dynasty favorite Donte Moncrief for one year.

Nick Foles, QB STL

News: The St Louis Rams acquired Foles in a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles in which the Eagles received Sam Bradford.

Analysis: This is actually an upgrade for Foles in my opinion. While the Eagles certainly have a better weapons and protection, St Louis will provide Foles with a clear cut starting job – something he didn’t have in Philadelphia.

Sam Bradford, QB PHI

News: The Philadelphia Eagles traded Foles and a 2015 second round pick for Bradford and a conditional 2016 pick.

Analysis: Bradford’s value was always contingent on health. If he can stay healthy, he could be a real weapon in the Eagles offense. We’ve seen Foles and Mark Sanchez run the Chip Kelly offense. If they can do it, Bradford can.

Ryan Mathews, RB PHI

News: The Philadelphia Eagles signed Mathews to a three-year, $11.5 million contract.

Analysis: This move made little sense given the fact the Eagles had just signed Murray to a large deal. Nonetheless, Mathews is a fine back when healthy and may be a cheap enough handcuff to Murray. Mathews was going off the board as the RB37 in March dynasty mocks and I don’t see him falling or rising. He’s a low cost insurance plan for Murray owners to ensure a piece of the Chip Kelly run game.

Kenny Stills, WR MIA

News: The Miami Dolphins acquired Stills in a trade with the New Orleans Saints in which they sent a 2015 third round pick and linebacker Dannell Elerbe.

Analysis: I view this as a bit of a lateral move with upside. Stills was always going to be in the shadow of Brandin Cooks despite being drafted a year before him. In Miami, Stills will be the man, and has a perfect complement in slot extraordinaire Jarvis Landry. With Landry drawing coverage in the short to intermediate game, Ryan Tannehill will likely find Stills single covered in his deep routes. Tannehill is no Drew Brees, but this is only Tannehill’s fourth season playing the quarterback position and he’s improved each year.

Percy Harvin, WR BUF

News: The Buffalo Bills and Harvin reportedly agreed to a one-year, $6 million contract.

Analysis: Harvin was a dynamic player during his days with the Minnesota Vikings. Recently, though, he’s battled injuries and been less effective. The Bills are far from a good fit for Harvin who has yet to play significant time with a great quarterback since Brett Favre retired. Since I view Harvin and Sammy Watkins as very similar players, I don’t see either benefitting from this move.

CJ Spiller, RB NO

News: The New Orleans Saints inked a four-year, $18 million contract with Spiller. The deal includes $9 million in guaranteed money.

Analysis: Spiller will play the “Darren Sproles” role in New Orleans which is a perfect fit for him. Mark Ingram signed on with the Saints ensuring Spiller will not have workhorse duties, but he was never a twenty plus carry per game running back in the first place. Spiller is currently being drafted as the RB35 which seems far too low for someone with his ability. If you own Bishop Sankey or Christine Michael, you could hypothetically flip them for Spiller, whom I’d prefer in most situations.

Jordan Cameron, TE MIA

News: The Miami Dolphins signed Cameron to a two-year, $15 million deal.

Analysis: Cameron has been a favorite of the dynasty community for years, but has battled injuries and inconsistency at the quarterback position. Miami provides a solution to one of those issues. Cameron will now battle Landry and Stills for targets. His March dynasty ADP of TE10 is a bit too high for my liking.

Mike Wallace, WR MIN

News: The Miami Dolphins traded Wallace and a 2015 seventh round pick to the Minnesota Vikings for a fifth round pick.

Analysis: Wallace’s huge contract was the reason for the small return in value. He looked to be shell of himself in comparison to his years playing for the Pittsburgh Steelers and time is not on his side, either. Wallace will be 29 years old before the start of the regular season and his career arc doesn’t suggest longevity.

Shane Vereen, RB NYG

News: The New York Giants agreed to a three-year, $12 million contract with Vereen.

Analysis: Vereen may be the best route running back in the league. With Rashad Jennings turning 30 years old in a few days and Andre Williams being ineffective in the running game, Vereen could see significant snaps. As the RB36 in March mocks, he could be a real value as a late round pick.

Follow me on Twitter: @KarlSafchick

[ad5]

10 Comments
0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
10 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Slick
6 years ago

Karl,

Thanks for the quick hit FA updates! I particularly appreciate the value assessments.
Following up on a few lesser ones, what is your take on:

Cecil Shorts signing with Hou
Owen Daniels in Den/Virgil Green resigning in Den
STL pass catchers with Foles

Thanks

Karl Safchick
Reply to  Slick
6 years ago

Shorts is the most interesting in my opinion. The Texans have so many needs, it’s not likely they address WR early in the draft. Shorts is almost certainly going to start and be in line for plenty of targets if he stays healthy. No one will argue that he’s going to suddenly become a WR1, but in deeper leagues, he’s could end up being a solid WR4. Expectations are key when taking on a player like Shorts.

I’ve openly been skeptical of Virgil Green, but our Eric Dickens seems to really like him. Again, expectations are key, but there are may reasons to like him. Green was drafted before Julius Thomas in the same draft, and while he’s been asked to take on blocking duties over the years in Denver, he was actually more of a pass catcher than anything before going pro.

Daniels is interesting since he’s reunited with his old ball coach, and Peyton Manning is throwing him the ball. At 32 years old, he obviously doesn’t have much long term value, but will be a cheap option for a contender.

All of the Rams catchers have the ability to outperform their ADP, but there’s no chance they all will. Tavon Austin has a ton of ability, but I like him more in leagues that award points for return yards. I’ll stay away from Kenny Britt for the sake of my own blood pressure. Stedman Bailey is interesting, but I’m not sure he’s special enough to separate himself from the pack. The only one I’d go out of my way to buy is Brian Quick. He really showed well last year, and his ADP isn’t too high.

Thank you for reading!

Slick
Reply to  Karl Safchick
6 years ago

thanks! very helpful!!!!

Larry I
6 years ago

What is your take on Forsett resigning with the Ravens?

Karl Safchick
Reply to  Larry I
6 years ago

Probably the best fit for him. I doubt he’ll be top 5 again, but definitely a great, cheap (RB41) option for a competing dynasty team.

big b
Reply to  Karl Safchick
6 years ago

I tend to disagree Karl. Granted if they add a back in the draft it’ll be moot, however Trestman is just as favorable for a RB as Kubiak, and as an owner I’m not giving him away for anything close to RB41 value. With no WR of note minus an aging Smith, I believe he’ll be asked to do more this year than last, and he just lost even more competition in his backfield. If you can get him at a RB41 price, that is outright stealing.

fffool
6 years ago

Great piece — I LOVE Vereen in NYG! Did you copy my notes on these guys, or what lol?

Admittedly, I haven’t seen Andre Johnson play much recently, but I’m still betting he has at least two very strong ppr wr2 seasons with Luck, & caps Moncrief’s targets at 75 per year. Still trying to figure out a way to trade for Moncrief, though…

For the record, I turned down Beckham for Trent last preseason, lol, but I too don’t agree that Graham takes a HUGE hit; Wilson isn’t Brees yet, but his poise & accuracy are exceptional and his mobility far exceeds Brees’. I don’t think Graham’s targets will suffer too much, and I think Russel’s efficiency will result in a LOT of touchdowns for Jimmy. Maybe I’m giving Wilson too much credit, but I absolutely love the fit.

Karl Safchick
Reply to  fffool
6 years ago

I didn’t copy your notes, but you have beautiful handwriting.

Eric
6 years ago

As a dolphins fan — just a quick comment re:Wallace. I think he is just as talented as he was when in Pittsburgh, however, Tannehill just could not hit him on the deep ball. Tannehill is an adequate QB, but he will never succeed with a WR of Wallace’s caliber. I am fine with MIA trading him – because what is the point of having a Lamborghini when the driver can’t drive a stick shift? Might as well get a sensible Corolla.

I think Wallace will be dangerous in Minnesota and I would definitely invest if anyone is selling at a discount.

Karl Safchick
Reply to  Eric
6 years ago

The only problem being Bridgewater struggled with the deep ball, too. He got much better later in the season, but it will be interesting to follow.

To Top