2013 NFL Draft: Day Two Review

Jeff Haverlack

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After a real snoozer of a first round, day two held much more promise and certainly didn’t disappoint when it comes to surprises, reaches and downright mysterious picks.  Below you’ll find my recap of primarily offensive skill position selections from rounds two and three.

Round Two

34.  Tennessee – Justin Hunter, WR

Round two quickly becomes a surprise as the Titans select Hunter with the second pick.  At least he doesn’t have to leave the state.

The Titans obviously believe a good offense can help a very questionable defense.  With Kenny Britt in a contract year and wholly under-performing his potential, Hunter has a year to get up to speed before much will be expected of him.  If, however, Britt can pull it together, the Titans will have a dynamic young receiving corps consisting of Britt, Kendall Wright and Hunter.  He has field stretching ability, great size and could provide the Titans offense with a dynamic difficult for defenses to deal with.  Much of the pressure will now be on the inaccurate Jake Locker to increase his completion percentage.  Chris Johnson owners can smile just a bit in that he now has an offensive line upgrade in addition to a capable young receiving group to keep secondaries honest.

35.  Philadelphia – Zach Ertz, TE

A good route running tight end to pair with Brent Celek in two tight end sets.  He’s not as athletic as first rounder Tyler Eifert (nor does he have the raw receiving ability), but he was clearly the second best tight end in this draft on my board.  As for Celek, he loses some value but has shown good chemistry with Michael Vick.  Truth be told, I’m not high on either of these tight ends for fantasy production over the long term.  Celek still has ability, but is fading and should eventually give way to Ertz sooner rather than later.  He is likely a late second round fantasy selection.

37.  Cincinnati – Giovani Bernard, RB

The first running back off the board is a surprise selection, but fits what the Bengals need.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a downhill runner and is nearing the end of his career while Bernard is a more dynamic, but tough runner for his size.  Bernard may not be a three down back but he won’t need to be as long as Green-Ellis remains in the backfield.  He may now ascend to the top of the running back chart as he finds himself in a good fantasy situation.  Fellow backs Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin remain on the board and continue to slide.  Ultimate landing spot will determine value at this point and fantasy coaches needing a running back will have a big decision to make with no clear-cut player standing out.

39.  New York Jets – Geno Smith, QB

Kudos to Geno Smith for finding his way back into the draft room to take his position on stage following his selection by the Jets.  He obviously received his first good bit of coaching in this process.  Outside of that, I just can’t think anything other than the Jets are a zoo.  Mark Sanchez may have played his last down as a starter for the Jets and it’s hard for me to forecast anything other than a media circus and negative competition in camp.  Smith is a better prospect in my book than was Sanchez and I’d like to see him start day one.  He’s more accurate than given credit for, but I’m not sure he’s emotionally tough enough for New York.

41.  Buffalo – Robert Woods, WR

I like this pick for the Bills, who continue to add playmakers.  Woods is a great route running receiver that should be the perfect complement to Stevie Johnson.  He’s a crafty and tough receiver who doesn’t have exceptional speed, but knows how to get open downfield.  He’s a high IQ player and a good character individual as well.  It’s not an exciting fantasy situation, but he may be a nice addition for fantasy teams drafting in the back half of the first round.

47.  Dallas – Gavin Escobar, TE

A surprise pick by America’s Team here as Jason Witten still has many years left if desired.  Escobar is a high-ceiling, relatively athletic player with pure receiving talent.  He won’ t add anything in the run game as he’s not an accomplished blocker, but his downfield ability fits the mold of Dallas tight ends.  You’ll need to have patience if you select Escobar as it could be three years until he receives meaningful snaps.

48.  Pittsburgh – Le’Veon Bell, RB

I’m shocked.  100%.  Bell is agile for his size and is somewhat more versatile than expected for his size.  He’s powerful when he gets his shoulders downhill and has just enough wiggle to elude angular defenders, but he won’t produce to a great degree in the passing game in the Steelerss offense (though he does have some talent in that area).  He’s excellent in pass protection given his experience and he has upside as a strong runner, especially in Pittsburgh’s physical scheme.  It’s a bold pick by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers and fantasy coaches in the top five have an ever-increasing set of difficult decisions to face.

55.  San Francisco – Vance McDonald, TE

An interesting selection by the 49ers who fill a depth chart need at the position.  McDonald won’t produce as an inline blocker, but runs like a large receiver.  In fact, he was often used as a slot receiver at Rice.  He won’t attract much fantasy focus come draft day and is likely a fourth rounder at best.

58.  Denver – Montee Ball, RB

Nice pick by Denver as they’re rewarded for their patience.  Ball has speed issues and slid down many boards, but he’s an extremely productive back, has a nose for the end-zone, is a great leader and should be a candidate to start immediately if Willis McGahee is injured or otherwise moved out.  Ball can be productive in the passing game, although he’s not dynamic in that regard.  He’s an extremely intelligent player and displays NFL patience.  He’s likely to be a top five fantasy rookie pick at this juncture.

59.  New England – Aaron Dobson, WR

Dobson has great size, speed and created a stir during his pro day.  He’s extremely raw as a receiver, but has immense upside in the right system.  New England just may be the right system to exploit his abilities.  Beyond his upside, he’s a bit of a single-speed player, which is odd considering his size and timed speed.  He’s a bit of an enigma, but he’ll be a nice second round fantasy selection to a coach with patience.

61.  Green Bay – Eddie Lacy, RB

What a fall for Mr. Lacy.  Word is multiple medical flags exist on his report such that teams weren’t willing to take the risk.  Instead, he falls to the Packers a full round later than expected.  He’s a perfect fit for the Green Bay offense which has been missing physicality.  Although, injury ridden runners in Green Bay have been a bit of a trend of late.  Lacy has great power, just enough agility and is a great value here for the Pack.  That said, the Packers don’t produce highly ranked running backs due to their reliance on the passing game.  Is that because of their recent lack of quality runners or because of system?  Is it worth the risk?  Either way, he’s likely to be overdrafted in my view.

62.  Seattle – Christine Michael, RB

He’s got great downhill ability, is as quick through the line of scrimmage as you’ll see and brings a head of steam that will punish the second level.  His fit with Seattle is curious given a relatively young running back corps consisting of Marshawn Lynch and last year’s rookie Robert Turbin.  Time will tell and he could slide well into the late second round, or even the high third round in rookie drafts.

Round Three

63.  Kansas City – Travis Kelce, TE

At 6’5″ and 255 Lbs., Kelce is a major sleeper at tight end and has a very high ceiling for coaches doing their homework.  He’s a bit raw in his routes and receiving, but he’s a quality receiver as well as a blocker.  He brings character baggage and off the field concerns, but if his head is on straight, he’s a player worth selecting late in your rookie draft.

73.  Tampa Bay – Mike Glennon, QB

So much for Ryan Nassib going as high as pick number eight in the first round.  Tampa Bay puts pressure on Josh Freeman in a contract year as they call the name of the strong armed but raw Glennon.  Well known evaluator Greg Cosell believes Glennon is the strongest quarterback in this class, so the Bucs get a good value here in the third round.  There’s not a lot of sex appeal with Glennon in fantasy, but he bears watching as he develops, or as Freeman’s play erodes.

74.  Dallas – Terrance Williams, WR

Williams is another enigma at receiver but flashes some T.O. ability in some situations.   He’s not a big leaper, has small hands and is somewhat route limited, but the Cowboys obviously love his size and upside.  He’s got some natural ball skills and will likely be a third round rookie selection.

76.  San Diego – Keenan Allen, WR

The Chargers get a heck of a value selection with the 76th pick.  Allen reportedly fell due to injury concerns as his knee isn’t responding as well as hoped.  He’s perhaps the most pro-ready receiver in this year’s draft and if not for his knee injury followed by a 4.70 forty, he’d be a first round selection in both the NFL draft and fantasy drafts.  As it stands, I expect Allen will still be a second round rookie fantasy selection.

78.  Buffalo – Marquise Goodwin, WR

After a strong draft thus far, the Bills laid an egg in my estimation by selecting the extremely raw, but blazing Goodwin.  History hasn’t shown a level of success in converting pure speedsters into NFL players, but I wish them luck.  I don’t see a Goodwin selection before the fourth round of rookie drafts.

79.  Pittsburgh – Markus Wheaton, WR

Great value pick here again by Mike Tomlin and fellow Steelers brass.  Wheaton is a high speed and dynamic receiver with the ability to take the top off of defenses from the slot or on the outside.  His hands can be inconsistent and times, but he’s exceptionally strong for his size.  Wheaton will be a great replacement for the departed Mike Wallace.

85.  Washington – Jordan Reed, TE

Another hybrid tight end which seems to be a Mike Shanahan move of late.  He’s a pure offensive weapon in raw form.  Likely won’t be drafted in fantasy.

92.  St. Louis – Stedman Bailey, WR

Very underrated receiver and highly productive in 2012.  He’ll join teammate Tavon Austin as the Rams continue to reload offensively.  They now have a very nice set of receivers, although questions will remain as to just who will see the lion’s share of targets, receptions and touchdowns.  Sam Bradford will find a way!  Great value pick by the Rams’ front office.

96.  Kansas City – Knile Davis, RB

He can’t stay healthy and when he is, he puts the ball on the ground at an alarming rate.  He’s a workout warrior blowing up the Combine this year, but he’s a huge risk.  He reminds me a lot of Herschel Walker of old without refinement.  He’s got a lot of upside, but mostly because of that huge risk.  In the right system, with the right opportunity and a lot of time, he could be eventually get a shot.  I’m very surprised he went off the board prior to Jonathan Franklin, my third rated back in this class, but so goes this draft.  Davis could be a third round rookie pick to Jamaal Charles owners.

In the last part of our series, we’ll review rounds four through seven.

jeff haverlack