DLF’s Annual Predictions: Volume Two

As we stated yesterday, this is one of our favorite times of the year. After working hard to produce over 600 articles since January, we can finally look forward to the 2013 Fantasy Football season in our beloved dynasty leagues – that means it’s time for our annual fantasy predictions. We gathered some opinions from the DLF Team and compiled this list of predictions for the upcoming fantasy year. The categories were as follows:

Fantasy MVP
Fantasy Rookie of the Year
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player
Fantasy Sleeper
Best Dynasty Buy
Best Dynasty Sell
Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year 

We’ll focus on the last four categories today since we covered the first four yesterday, saving you from reading nearly 10,000 words at once.

Let’s get to it!

Chad Scott

Fantasy Sleeper: Rueben Randle, WR NYG

I don’t trust Hakeem Nicks to stay even relatively healthy and Victor Cruz is dealing with a deep tissue bruise on his foot.  The #3 wide receiver in this offense can be a useable fantasy asset, but if one of the starters go down, Randle has a very good chance of supplying you with WR2 upside.

Best Dynasty Buy: Julius Thomas, TE DEN

Yeah, he probably could have been my sleeper pick, but I love Thomas and his time is now.  Wes Welker is no spring chicken and Eric Decker may be out the door next season.  I don’t expect huge numbers coming from Thomas this season so there will be an opportunity to buy once this initial hype has subsided.  Peyton Manning only has a couple years left in him, but Cecil Lammey believes Brock Osweiler is more than capable of leading the Broncos.  If it’s good enough for him, it’s good enough for me.

Best Dynasty Sell: Daryl Richardson, RB STL

I’ve seen DRich go as high as the early fourth round in recent drafts and I just can’t see it.  His hype is out of control on an offense that will be a RBBC approach.  No only that, but y’all know my love for Isaiah Pead knows no bounds.  I’ve backed off the Pead obsession to just being a normal stalker now.  I think he eventually takes the job this year, but to expect any of these RBs to put up consistent fantasy points in 2013 is a stretch.  No doubt in my mind if I could get a 2014 first rounder for Richardson, I’d pounce.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Ryan Mathews, RB SD

Gross. To his credit, he’s looked like the Ryan Mathews circa 2011 this preseason.  The offense as a whole will be dreadful, but Mathews should carve out some nice RB2 numbers assuming he can stay healthy *crickets* He might not be a bad dynasty buy low either…ducks.

Jarrett Behar

Fantasy Sleeper: Marquess Wilson, WR CHI

With Earl Bennett concussed and possibly cut or traded, he could step into WR3 role in Chicago.  Add in Brandon Marshall’s hip problem and he could contribute his rookie year.

Best Dynasty Buy:  Travis Kelce, TE KC

Quiet preseason makes him a good buy.  Tony Moeaki’s injury could provide an immediate opportunity as well.

Best Dynasty Sell:  David Wilson, RB NYG

I like Wilson a lot, but if you can get first round startup value for him (as I’ve seen this off-season), you should take it.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year:  Maurice Jones-Drew, RB JAX

Healthy by all accounts and the Jaguars will run him into the ground in likely his last year in Jacksonville.

Steve Wyremski

Fantasy Sleeper: Chris Givens, WR STL

He gets no love with the drafting of Austin, but he’s the number one target in St. Louis. With an underrated rookie season and Austin overshadowing him, Givens is positioned nicely for a nice season with WR2 upside given the chemistry exhibited with Sam Bradford already. He’s both a vertical threat and solid underneath target.

Best Dynasty Buy: Fred Davis, TE WAS

He’s back to form, healthy, young and in his contract year. The misconception that he and RG3 don’t have good chemistry is keeping his value down. Given Davis’ production post week two last season, expect him to outperform his current value by a significant margin. A close second is Quinton Patton. He’ll have a prime opportunity in 2013 given Michael Crabtree’s injury and has the college production to support why NFL success is warranted.

Best Dynasty Sell: Brandon Marshall, WR CHI

He’s a ticking time bomb. He’s been on good behavior, so it’s virtually forgotten by many, but don’t expect this to continue. Not only that, but Marshall is hitting the dreaded age of 30 next year. Given those two factors, I’m selling him unless I’m pushing for a title in 2013.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Ryan Mathews, RB SD

See my most recent article, my friend. Great preseason and only one year removed from injury. Many are assuming that Danny Woodhead will receive 100% of the team’s running back receptions, but it’s highly likely that Mathews gets a piece of the action. He’s in better shape this year and running well so far this preseason. He looks to be primed for rebirth.

Derek Willett

Fantasy Sleeper: Geno Smith, QB NYJ

The Jets are the laughing stock on the NFL, and rightfully so.  At the center of much of the negative attention has been the quarterback battle between Smith and Mark Sanchez .  Smith seems to have won the job, and while the receiving options are limited and the team as a whole appears to be destined for failure, his fantasy prospects are better than they appear. Bad teams pass the ball a lot, and Smith has a good arm.  He should put up plenty of garbage time fantasy points through the air, along with a healthy amount of rushing yardage.  The cost is next to nothing, but he should reward fantasy owners with a solid season, even if the team is terrible.  If your league penalizes heavily for interceptions, ignore this prediction.

Best Dynasty Buy: Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR

Put the pitchforks down and hear me out.  With the recent news of Stewart being placed on the PUP list, his value is in the gutter.  Prior to this news, Stewart was already being drafted in the 7th or 8th round in start-ups, and following this, I’d imagine he could be had significantly lower.  Regardless of your opinion of Stewart, his cost is reaching the point where you could likely pick him up for next to nothing, making him a value even if he were to end up missing the entire season.

Best Dynasty Sell: Shane Vereen, RB NE

I’m a big fan of Vereen and like him quite a bit in redraft leagues this year, but his current price in dynasty leagues have gotten a bit out of hand over the past few months.  He’s currently being drafted in the late 3rd/early 4th range, which I think is significantly high for what he’s likely going to be worth a year from now.  With Stevan Ridley getting a bulk of the carries, Vereen has to hope to be used significantly more than Woodhead was in year’s past to reach his current draft spot, which I don’t see happening.  In the event he leaves New England in a year or two, the likelihood of him becoming a top level RB is even less likely.  Sell him now while the offseason hype is still there.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Fred Davis, TE WAS

Davis was a hot commodity at this time last year, but after a slow start and subsequent season ending injury, he has become a forgotten target of fantasy owners.  In terms of pure talent, Davis is one of the more gifted tight ends in the NFL, and I see him taking a huge step forward this season.

Ken Kelly

Fantasy Sleeper: EJ Manuel, QB BUF

He’s going to be thrown into the fire early for the Bills, but he actually looks as prepared as he could be. While it’s going to be ugly at times, the Bills may end up throwing enough to make Manuel a legitimate option in dynasty leagues as early as this season.

Best Dynasty Buy: Alfred Morris, RB WAS

I’ve given up on trying to convince people things are different this time with Mike Shanahan. Maybe I’m right and maybe I’m wrong, but Morris posted an incredible season last year with 1,613 rushing yards. Just look at the history book to put that into perspective. Over the past four years, a grand total of THREE running backs posted more yards than Morris did on the ground last season – that list includes Chris Johnson (2,006 in 2009), Arian Foster (1,616 in 2010) and Adrian Peterson (2,097 in 2012). That’s it.  THREE players in four years. Yes, I see Roy Helu had a great preseason, but RGIII wasn’t the only player resting in our Nation’s capitol this Summer.

Best Dynasty Sell: Terrelle Pryor, QB OAK

Look, all the obvious ones are taken, but in three weeks this will ring true.  On paper (and that’s what fantasy owners care about), he’s going to put up some pretty decent fantasy lines because of his athletic ability. The problem is he’s not very good. Like at all. If he comes out and posts a few good performances, sell him for whatever you can before the Raiders run to the podium to shout “Bridgewater!”

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Carson Palmer, QB ARI

Left for dead in Oakland, Palmer will not only resurrect his own value to that of a decent QB2 (assuming the Cardinals o-line keeps him off a stretcher), but should bring Larry Fitzgerald back on the map at the same time.

Jeff Beran

Fantasy Sleeper: Julius Thomas, TE DEN

The TE1 in Manning’s offenses have historically been extremely productive.  Ergo, Thomas will reap those benefits and greatly exceed his August ADP of TE28.  He’ll join the same lineage of basketball-player-turned-awesome-tight-ends to which players such as Jimmy Graham and Tony Gonzalez belong.

Best Dynasty Buy: Justin Blackmon, WR JAX

An elite NFL talent and future superstar currently available at WR2 or even WR3 prices in some leagues? Yes, please, and thank you.

Best Dynasty Sell: Frank Gore, RB SF

There’s just so much tread on those tires, I think his cliff is steep and quickly approaching.  The time to salvage whatever value he has left was yesterday.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI

The Cardinals still don’t have a great offensive line or a solidified run game.  Palmer is a slinger and was brought in specifically to throw the ball to Fitz as much as possible and I expect that to happen.  He’s a WR2 on most fantasy rosters right now but I think he’ll finish the year as the third highest scoring wide receiver behind Johnson and Dez Bryant, restoring his place amongst the NFL’s elite.

Mark Rockwell

Fantasy Sleeper: Roy Helu, RB WAS

The forgotten man in the Washington backfield has looked solid in preseason play.  I’d argue he’s more explosive than Morris.  Even if he functions only as a third down and change of pace back, he could find flex value.  If anything happens to Morris, he could explode.

Best Dynasty Buy: Aaron Dobson, WR NE

With all the hype surround Thompkins, Dobson’s perceived value has dropped.  Those in the know in New England still view Dobson as having the most upside if he can put it all together.  That and I can’t shake Cosell comparing his ball skills to Fitzgerald’s.

Best Dynasty Sell: Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA

He’s taken a beating thanks to running style and workload.  Now he’s got one of the most exciting rookies in Christine Michael behind him on the depth chart.  This season might be the last chance to get top dollar for him.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Chris Johnson, RB TEN

The Titans’ offensive line looks great.  As @RumfordJohnny put it, “I think a mailbox on roller skates could flourish w/those uglies.”  That wasn’t just one of my favorite tweets of all time, it’s true.  Last year, Johnson was half the problem and the other half has been solved.  Hopefully, he runs hard and decisively.  Also, Jake Locker has quietly improved throughout the preseason, will see if that continues into the regular season, but obviously if that trend continues that only helps him more.

Chris Rohrer

Fantasy Sleeper: Quinton Patton, WR SF

With Crabtree out for at least the majority of the season, a young wide receiver needs to step up.  The A.J. Jenkins experiment failed miserably, and Marlon Moore is currently projected to open up the season across from Anquan Boldin.  Moore is entering his fourth season and has yet to impress while the rookie Patton showed some impressive stuff in his recent preseason performances.  It should only be a matter of time before the rookie overtakes Moore and has a shot to contribute to the offense as a starter.

Best Dynasty Buy: Vincent Brown, WR SD

Following a pre-season injury, Brown lost the entire 2012 season just after he was receiving praise in camp.  Following a full recovery and another good pre-season, he’s in a position to step into the number one receiver position in San Diego and quarterback Philip Rivers thinks the world of him.  People are waiting to see it to believe it, but by then it will be too late.  Jump on it now.

Best Dynasty Sell: Lamar Miller, RB MIA

Entering this season, Miller has been given duties to be the number starting, three-down back in Miami.  Yes, he has shown explosiveness, but his sample size is very small.  Now he’s being treated as a borderline RB1 before proving anything. We’ve seen it before, and now he’s facing an uphill battle just to meet expectations, or otherwise disappoint.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year:  Ryan Mathews, RB SD

I don’t know if he’ll have the best overall season of players emerging from the dead (MJD), but relative to expectations I think he’s the guy.  People are going as far to label him a bust already and I think it’s a big mistake.  He’s still the primary guy and San Diego (despite crazy predictions Woodhead is the new Cat’s Meow) and he’ll have the chance to redeem himself.  Mathews has the talent and looks revitalized following last year’s injury ridden season.

Scott Peak

Fantasy Sleeper: Brandon Weeden, QB CLE

Cleveland has a very good offensive line, and per Pro Football Focus, finished as the third best in pass blocking efficiency in 2012. Norv Turner’s prowess as an offensive coordinator is legendary. Weeden has a solid young core of surrounding talent, and an ADP 216, or the 18th round in a 12 team league. Can’t beat that value.

Best Dynasty Buy: Dwayne Allen, TE IND

In terms of rookie years, Allen’s 2012 production is comparable to Gronkowski, and better than Graham. Allen finished as the second overall TE in cumulative rating per PFF. With Pep Hamilton in tow, the best young QB in the game, a TE-friendly offense and an underachieving Coby Fleener his primary competition, Allen is set up for success. Allen’s ADP is 137 or the 11th round in 12 team leagues.

Best Dynasty Sell: Trent Richardson, RB CLE

Richardson would net a fortune in most leagues. Yet, he was listed on the injury report every game in 2012 while battling knee, chest, ribs, finger and ankle injuries. He even missed OTAs with shin splints. That’s after his rookie year. Plus he averaged 3.6 YPC in 2012. Yet, his ADP is #3, ahead of Calvin Johnson. Sell now and smile later.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB JAX

MJD is a forgotten man. From 2009 to 2011, few RBs were as prolific in fantasy football. MJD has recovered from a Lisfranc injury, has no competition for carries and will be a free agent in 2014. MJD is a warrior, and I expect him to knock that big chip off his shoulder in 2013.

Jeff Haverlack

Fantasy Sleeper: Jarius Wright, WR MIN

Few are talking about him and he’s likely still in your free agent pool.  Percy Harvin is gone, the offense runs through A.P. and the Vikings have acquired Greg Jennings.  There may not be a ton of balls to go around but I believe Wright will find his way onto nearly every deeper dynasty league roster before the end of 2013.  With Ponder’s weaker arm, Wright fits the bill nicely. He reminds me a lot of Harvin.

Best Dynasty Buy: Julius Thomas, TE DEN

I like the kid and think he’s destined for a much bigger role very soon.  I won’t be surprised to see him as a top 15 tight end before the year is out.  May be a tall order, but I believe he’s got the athleticism to be a difference maker.

Best Dynasty Sell: Mike Wallace, WR MIA

I expect the pattern of non-performance to accelerate now that he’s in Miami.  I’ve never been on the Wallace bandwagon and I believe this is the last year for your to capture some level of real value.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: LeSean McCoy, RB PHI

Never really hit his stride in 2012 and his mid-season injury sealed his fate for 2012.  As long as he stays healthy, he should have a monster season.

Eric Olinger

Fantasy Sleeper: Quinton Patton, WR SF

Normally rookie wide receivers should not be counted on in fantasy leagues, but the 49ers arguably have the least talented group of receivers in the league. With Boldin and the newly acquired Jonathan Baldwin leading the way, Patton has the opportunity to carve out a spot in the three wide sets right off the bat. He has developed good chemistry with Kaepernick and we’ve seen if Kaep trusts you, he’s gonna feed you. Patton can be had dirt cheap right now but I think he will approach high end WR4 / low end WR3 numbers this season.

Best Dynasty Buy: Josh Gordon, WR CLE

His two game suspension and $2 brain have his price as low as it is going to be right now. He fits the Norv Turner offense to the letter and has flashed in the preseason. If you can get him for WR3 money right now you need to jump on it. When he returns from suspension his price is going to skyrocket.

Best Dynasty Sell: Vernon Davis, TE SF

All off-season we’ve heard how Davis has been lining up as a wide receiver and he will be the player who fills the shoes of the injured Crabtree but I’m not buying this a bit. Outside of the Kaepernick’s first game against the Bears, he has been borderline invisible. I don’t see how he’s all the sudden going to be an elite TE1 option.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Ryan Mathews, RB SD

I figure most everyone will take MJD here so I’ll go against the grain. I know people hate Mathews after his awful 2012 season but I’ve seen a rejuvenated and focused Mathews in the preseason and I believe he is going to prove the naysayers wrong. People assume Woodhead is going to be a Darren Sproles-like clone in San Diego and turn Mathews into a two down back. I don’t believe this to be the case. I expect Woodhead to be the committee partner to Mathews and spell him from time to time, sometimes even taking an entire series, but in no way am I expecting Mathews to be invisible in the passing game. He has an all-around skill set that can be very advantageous for a team lacking playmakers at the moment.

Brian Bulmer

Fantasy Sleeper: Joique Bell, RB DET

Bush will take the bulk of the snaps at running back. Bell finished in the top 25 in PPR last season with Leshoure. I can see the Lions running sets with both backs on the field. Bell could have a better season than he had last year.

Best Dynasty Buy: Rob Gronkowski, TE NE

I think his value may be the lowest it will ever be. He is 24 years of age and has a lot of football left. He does have some durability concerns, but limited options in New England make him a Dynasty buy. Gronkowski is an elite talent at a position that lost some major talent.

Best Dynasty Sell: Adrian Peterson, RB MIN

I know I mentioned him as the fantasy MVP this season and the guy has shown signs of being super human. Peterson is 28 this season and still appears to have plenty left in the tank. Might be the best time to sell him to get the most you will ever get out of a top talent.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Vincent Brown, WR SD

If Brown can stay healthy I really like him in San Diego. He will finally have an opportunity with Danario Alexander going down with a knee injury and out for the season. Brown could be a great PPR wide receiver to own on a team that lacks a lot of weapons in the passing game.

Eric Hardter

Fantasy Sleeper: Greg Little, WR CLE

Though virtually every other player on the Cleveland offense has been hyped to some extent this off-season, Little might be the best value of them all.  He’s re-dedicated himself to his craft, including putting in extra time with quarterback Brandon Weeden.  Don’t be surprised to see him flirt with 100-110 targets, which might be enough to yield high-end WR3 value.

Best Dynasty Buy: Vance McDonald, TE SF

He’s doubtful to hold much value this year, but I firmly believe McDonald is going to be one of the game’s next great tight ends.  He has the size and speed that offensive coordinators crave, and is playing in one of the best offenses in the NFL.  Mark my words, if you don’t buy him now, he’ll be a lot more expensive at this point next year.

Best Dynasty Sell: Arian Foster, RB HOU

My feelings on Foster are well documented here at DLF.  His statistics have declined each of the past two years, and he’s likely to see a lesser workload this season due to the presence of Ben Tate.  He’s not owed any guaranteed money in 2014, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Texans dump him if Tate plays well.  No, you won’t get top dollar for him if you sell now, but I think his value will only continue to decrease.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Fred Davis, TE WSH

Quick quiz, name the top pass-catching options on the Washington Redskins.  There’s Pierre Garcon, and, well…yeah.  Despite not scoring, Davis was on pace for 743 yards last year in a conservative offense with a rookie signal caller.  He’s seemingly proved his health this preseason, and with a massive talent vacuum in the TE1 tier, Davis could easily finish as one of the best at the position.

Karl Safchick

Fantasy Sleeper: Dwayne Allen, TE IND

The “other” tight end in Indianapolis is being overlooked. Fleener gets much of the attention for being Luck’s go-to guy in college, but Allen is a much better NFL caliber tight end. He can block and catch more consistently than Fleener as well as being more explosive with the ball in his hands. I believe Allen could have a stellar career in this league.

Best Dynasty Buy: Ronnie Hillman, RB DEN

Hillman is currently being drafted as the RB40 at 103 overall. Montee Ball is being selected as the RB25 at 47 overall. I believe that Hillman could end up being the better back in Denver and he comes much cheaper. Hillman is younger and more explosive than Ball. Whoever can pick up their pass protection duties quicker will be the bell-cow in the “Mile High” city.

Best Dynasty Sell: Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA

Lynch will probably be on a team other than the Seattle Seahawks next year. He will more than likely be suspended for the first few games, and will have to fight to get back on the field in another city. You can still get RB1 value for him, and I recommend you do just that.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Hakeem Nicks, WR NYG

Nicks was considered by most to be a solid WR1 before his injury plagued 2012 season. Sometimes I feel that players do themselves more harm than good by playing through injuries. Sure the Giants needed Nicks on the field to roll coverages away from Cruz, but now there is so much game tape that shows Nicks being unproductive. People are still very high on guys like Harvin and Crabtree even though they won’t play much, if any, of the 2013 season. Those guys won’t be providing bad film for coaches or fantasy football owners, though. Just think, if Hakeem Nicks didn’t play at all in 2012, would your opinion of him be higher?

Jacob Feldman

Fantasy Sleeper: Rueben Randle, WR NYG

I’m not sure how many games Nicks and Cruz have both been on the field together start to finish, but it isn’t many. Randle will step in for either of them and produce at a nice level. Nicks will be gone next year and Randle will be valued as a solid WR2 next summer.

Best Dynasty Buy: Isaiah Pead, RB STL

Unless the Rams are going to spend yet another pick on a running back, Pead should still be the guy long term. He’s more durable and more talented than Richardson and should play his way into the lead dog by the end of this season, locking himself in place for a nice 2014 campaign.

Best Dynasty Sell: Darren McFadden, RB OAK

He’s a great talent, but he just can’t stay on the field. He’ll be lucky to find a starting role next season during free agency and could very easily end up in a timeshare as his new team tries to keep him healthy. Sell him for high end RB2 value while you can.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI

This one might not be that bold, but I have to go with him. After an absolutely terrible year last year, Fitz will come out and remind everyone while he is one of the most talented receivers of this generation with a nice fantasy season nearing a 90/1200/8 statline.

FFGhost

Fantasy Sleeper: Jeremey Kerley, WR NYJ

I pushed Amendola here last season and he’s finally seeing some love, this year it is Kerley. The Jets’ roster is so devoid of play makers that I don’t see a situation in which Kerely isn’t startable week in and week out. He is quite literally the only fantasy passing option the Jets have. He’s going to be getting a lot of work and his ADP is so low that it’s tragic.

Best Dynasty Buy: Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI

Jeffery is coming into his own and the results should be fun to watch. We all know about the Jay Cutler to Marshall connection, but exactly because of that Cutler is going to have to spread it around. He’s never really had a solid option to do that with until now.

Best Dynasty Sell: Eric Decker, WR DEN

Welker is going to eat into Decker’s looks and receptions and it isn’t going to be pretty. He may go somewhere else next season but you’re taking a huge gamble on how that turns out, either way.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Vincent Brown, WR SD

The hype on Brown was really high last season and then he got injured. The season that Alexander had in San Diego should have been Brown’s season, now it can be. With no one to really compete in and real sense for Rivers’ targets I think Brown will show us a great comeback.