DLF’s Annual Preseason Predictions: Volume One
This is one of our favorite times of the year. After working hard to produce over 600 articles since January, we can finally look forward to the 2013 Fantasy Football season in our beloved dynasty leagues – that means it’s time for our annual fantasy predictions. We gathered some opinions from the DLF Team and compiled this list of predictions for the upcoming fantasy year. The categories were as follows:
Fantasy MVP
Fantasy Rookie of the Year
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player
Fantasy Sleeper
Best Dynasty Buy
Best Dynasty Sell
Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year
We’ll focus on the first four categories today and the second four tomorrow since we packed it with over 8,00o words.
Let’s get to it!
Chad Scott
Fantasy MVP: Jamaal Charles, RB KC
Charles will be a PPR monster this season under Andy Reid and Alex Smith does just enough to keep defenses honest. He should be more involved in the passing game and included on the goal line touches. He has a monster year in store.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
I love watching this kid in space and the dude can grind in between the tackles (at times). I loved his ability to catch out of the backfield, but what has me all in on gnat Gio is the three touchdowns coming from the one yard line this preseason. Yes, please.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Tavon Austin, WR STL
I just can’t seem to get on board with this guy in dynasty or redraft leagues. His body worries me and I think he gets a rude awakening in the NFC West this season. I don’t see where he can retain any value versus his ADP.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Pierre Garcon, WR WAS
He’s the cheapest top 12 wide receiver your team can draft/acquire. He’s the #1 deep and short options for RGIII and is a threat to take it to the house on every catch. In his healthy games last season, Garcon played as the eighth best fantasy WR, averaging 17.1 PPG. Dude is a beast and I have been trying to get him on all my teams.
Jarrett Behar
Fantasy MVP: Calvin Johnson, WR DET
The People’s WR1. Even with a deep group of WRs, he separates himself. If his TDs normalize this year, he could set a record.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Eddie Lacy, RB GB
By attrition.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Arian Foster, RB HOU
Feel like the cliff is approaching.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Chris Givens, WR STL
All he does is make big plays. Probably only going to be under the radar for a short while longer.
Steve Wyremski
Fantasy MVP: David Wilson, RB NYG
Pass protection is a concern, but as he showed in the preseason game against the Jets, Wilson can break one loose on any play. He’ll rack up a number of receptions and long TDs in 2013 carrying teams to fantasy championships. Andre Brown’s presence was worth noting, but not enough to really impact his value anyway. With Brown’s injury, this is just easier.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kenbrell Thompkins, WR NE
With limited pass catching options in New England, Rob Gronkowski’s injury and the trust Brady has in Thompkins already, this is the favorable choice for me. Eddie Lacy is a much cheaper candidate over Bernard with a prime opportunity at hand in an explosive offense in desperate need of a reliable running back.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Tavon Austin, WR STL
His going rate could be justified if he were in an offense like New Orleans, Green Bay or New England, but many are hoping he’s the second coming of Randall Cobb. He very well could be, but I don’t like his chances given the offense he’s in. I expect him to be a much better football player than fantasy player. I’d take guys like Cecil Shorts, Michael Floyd, DeAndre Hopkins and countless others over him.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI
He’s getting “older,” but this guy is going to be around until his late 30’s and is highly likely to play at a high level given the shape he keeps himself in and his natural ability. His quarterbacks were atrocious last year. Carson Palmer will be like Tom Brady to Fitzgerald compared to what he was working with last year.
Derek Willett
Fantasy MVP: CJ Spiller, RB BUF
The quarterback situation in Buffalo is a mess, with EJ Manuel hurt, Kevin Kolb out for the entire season and some guy I’d never heard of a week ago poised to start week one. Spiller will be the most active player on the team, getting a ton of catches and always being a threat to turn any rush into a touchdown. This will be the year he solidifies himself as the top running back in dynasty.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
In my mind, there are really only two obvious choices, Lacy or Bernard. While there are some intriguing wide receiver options entering the league this year, I expect the running backs to be the ones who make a true impact this year. While Lacy is more likely to be heavily involved, I don’t trust him to stay healthy through a full 16 game regular season. Bernard should be heavily involved in the Cincinnati offense even if he isn’t the official starter and I believe he’s the best player in this year’s draft class.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
Peterson is one of the greatest running backs of all time and I fully expect him to put up another fantastic fantasy performance this season. With that said, his age will catch up to him soon and I can’t imagine spending a first round start-up pick on a player so close to the end of his career.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Chris Givens, WR STL
Looking at August ADP data, Givens is currently going off the board behind at the 118th pick, partly behind fears of Austin, Stedman Bailey, and others stealing his opportunities, which I think is unfounded. I expect Givens to be the top receiving option for years to come in St. Louis, and I think he is being criminally underrated this offseason.
Jeff Beran
Fantasy MVP: Michael Vick, QB PHI
Chip Kelly’s offense fits Vick perfectly and a healthy offensive line will protect him infinitely better than last year. Quick throws will help keep his jersey clean and a volume based offense along with a shoddy defense will keep his stats consistently amongst the top scorers. If he manages to play a full schedule, Vick will end the season as the highest scoring fantasy player.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kenbrell Thompkins, WR NE
The hype train has a full head of steam already so I might as well keep it going. By this time next week, we won’t be calling him “the next Victor Cruz,” we’ll be calling him “the next Jerry Rice!”
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Andrew Luck, QB IND
Don’t get me wrong, Luck is an a great quarterback with a very bright future in the NFL, but I just don’t think he’ll ever be a player who puts up incredible stats in the same vein as Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Brady, or Manning. I’d personally rather own one of the younger quarterbacks who possess a higher ceiling, such as Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin, Colin Kaepernick, or Matthew Stafford, all of whom are being drafted in start-ups after Luck.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Bryce Brown, RB PHI
I don’t think anybody in the fantasy community has yet fully appreciated how productive the Eagles offense is going to be. Remember that Kansas City Chiefs offense from a few years ago that simultaneously featured two Top 20 fantasy running backs in Charles (1,900 total yards, 8 TDs) and Thomas Jones (1,000 total yards, 6 TDs)? Those numbers are easily attainable for LeSean McCoy and Brown in the new Philly offense.
Mark Rockwell
Fantasy MVP: C.J. Spiller, RB BUF
There are very few players as exciting to watch. Every play could be a big play. I predict lots of big plays.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Eddie Lacy, RB GB
Maybe the coaching staff really did plan on DuJuan Harris playing a big role, but that’s irrelevant now. The last time the Packers had a running back this talented they put up big numbers.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Alfred Morris, RB WAS
It’s not that I don’t think he’s a valuable player, but Ryan’s latest ADP has him at 15 overall. I think we’ve seen his ceiling. I wouldn’t count on anything more than a RB2 out of him.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Kendall Hunter, RB SF
He looks 100% healthy to me. He was in line to take over the lead back role in SF. The presence of Marcus Lattimore had everybody dumping him, but I’m not. Lattimore is a 50/50 shot to get back to his old self. If he does I’ll be wrong. If he doesn’t, Kendall Hunter has high end RB2 value as soon as 2013.
Chris Rohrer
Fantasy MVP: Calvin Johnson, WR DET
Not getting fancy with this pick. Top receiver for the last two years and I don’t see any reason for it to change this year. He might not come quite as close to 2,000 yards receiving, but a sure boost in touchdowns will keep him on top.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Eddie Lacy, RB GB
After a great camp, there was little doubt Lacy was the lead back in Green Bay, the season ending injury to Harris just closed the book on it. It won’t be close to a time share with fellow rookie Johnathan Franklin not looking quite ready for a major contribution – the path is paved for Lacy to have high RB2 potential in 2013.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Trent Richardson, RB CLE
I won’t argue he doesn’t have talent, but I just don’t see the overall second pick according to DLF’s August ADP data. With all the hype surrounding him, people seem blinded to the fact he seems to be dealing with so many injuries on a weekly basis. With such a young back this concerns me and people discard the red flags solely because he’s managed to suit up every week. He looked underwhelming to me in his rookie season and I’d rather take a more dynamic runner like Spiller, McCoy or even grab one of the top pass catchers. At his current value, he’s just a player I will never own.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Greg Jennings, WR GB
Two factors have hurt Jennings’s value: last year’s injury and signing with the Minnesota Vikings. He’s still on the right side of 30 and people have forgotten that before the injury he was one of the most consistent receivers in the game. Yes, Vikings’ quarterback Christian Ponder is a downgrade from Rodgers, but he’ll also have less competition for targets. Jennings’s route running ability and great hands will still give him WR2 potential at WR4 value.
Scott Peak
Fantasy MVP: Jimmy Graham, TE NO
Graham is arguably the most important player in dynasty. He is the top tight end this year, given Gronkowski’s injury situation, and represents a sizable positional advantage. The last time Sean Payton wasn’t suspended, Graham finished second only to Gronkowski in PPR, and the next closest to him was 80 points away.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Eddie Lacy, RB GB
I’ve been on board with Lacy while pundits were obsessing over his toe injury, combine performance and unflattering Twitter photos. The toe injury won’t be an issue, and Lacy is good for at least 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Cam Newton, QB CAR
Through the first eight games of 2012, Newton wasn’t even a top ten quarterback – sandwiched between Vick and Andy Dalton. Carolina’s schedule was much easier in the second half last year, the exact time when Superman soared. Defenses don’t have to respect Carolina’s running game, and Newton still doesn’t have the kind of surrounding talent he needs to win. Carolina also has the toughest schedule in the NFL this year.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Joique Bell, RB DET
Bell finished as the RB23 in 2012 PPR leagues. Mikel Leshoure lacks explosiveness coming off an Achilles tear and Reggie Bush is an injury away from Bell putting up big numbers. Bell was a target monster in 2012, and was the fourth most targeted RB (65 targets). Bell’s ADP is 155, behind such luminaries as Jacquizz Rodgers and Latavius Murray.
Jeff Haverlack
Fantasy MVP: Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
I hate to play it safe here, but he’s just too much of their offense. That, in fact, may be his biggest downside as well. Ponder won’t scare defenses and Peterson will be, again, facing a stiff presence of defenders in the box. I say “again” because he did last year as well and he still almost broke the single season rushing record. He’s inhuman.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Tavon Austin, WR STL
I’m not sold on any of the running backs this year given the time share situations. My second choice would be Giovani Bernard, however. Austin should get the touches that will allow him to pile up yards and receptions. Mix in special teams production and he could be a fantasy monster as long as he stays healthy.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Doug Martin, RB TB
Closely behind exists Richardson. For Martin, remove one monster game and his 2012 season is 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns – a good season to be sure, but not something I want to overly invest in. In 11 games in 2012, he failed to eclipse the 100 yard mark. Until I see more consistency, I’ll let someone else take the plunge.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Mike Williams, WR TB
I’ve been on Williams all year and have seen him lasting into the double-digits of new dynasty drafts. He’s got a new contract, is the WR2 to Vincent Jackson and the ground game is carried by Martin. Williams gets lost, but I fully expect over 1,000 yards and double digit scores in 2013.
Eric Olinger
Fantasy MVP: Jimmy Graham, TE NO
With Gronk recovering from injury and Aaron Hernandez trying to Shawshank his way out of the clink, Graham has tier one all to himself. If you have him you have a J.J. Watt-like advantage. If you don’t have him, you wish you did.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
This was a tough choice for me between Bernard and Hopkins. I believe Bernard’s red zone and goal line abilities are going to make BenJarvus Green-Ellis completely obsolete in Cincinnati. He’s an all-around back and the playmaker the Bengals have long been searching for.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Shane Vereen, RB NE
So far I’ve seen people claim Danny Amendola, Zach Sudfeld, Thompkins, Dobson and Vereen will be the main benefactor of Aaron Hernandez’ absence in the Patriots passing game. From a fantasy standpoint, I think people are getting too excited about him. His week to week production is going to be too inconsistent to count on. He’s a far superior talent to the departed Woodhead, but he cannot be counted on as more than a flex play.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Chris Givens, WR STL
Everybody has a hardcore man crush on Austin and Jared Cook in St. Louis this year, but Givens is going to lead this team in fantasy points. He’s the best all-around wide receiver on the team. He can get deep, he can be the possession guy and he has speed to burn. His preseason play has been electric and I expect him to cement his self as the team’s long term WR1.
Brian Bulmer
Fantasy MVP: Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
I really like Peterson. Hard to deny a player who may carry many teams to the playoffs for the second consecutive season. He is a true workhorse back that is the focus of an offense with a quarterback that has a weak arm. Peterson will put the team on his back for the second year in a row.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Eddie Lacy, RB GB
Seems like the obvious choice. The injury to Harris has opened the door for Lacy to see the majority of snaps at running back. Green Bay is a high octane offense and Lacy should benefit with plenty of goal line opportunities
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Alfred Morris, RB WAS
He’s the guy I see as the most overvalued dynasty choice. I know all signs point to him being the primary back in Washington, but I do not trust a running back in the Shanahan system long term. I feel Roy Helu will become part of the game plan at some point and take some of the snaps from Morris.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Kenny Britt, WR TEN
For me it is Kenny Britt. I love his potential and I think he has a breakout year. He may finally reach the status that fantasy owners have been waiting on for a very long time. He has massive upside and needs to stay healthy an entire season so we can see what his real value is.
Eric Hardter
Fantasy MVP: Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
I thought about getting cute with this prediction, but honestly why bother? Even if he doesn’t break 2,000 yards again, he’s a lock for double-digit touchdowns and 20-25 touches a week. In a league that’s slowly moving towards committee attacks, Peterson remains an otherworldly constant.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Eddie Lacy, RB GB
Unlike last year, I don’t expect a lot of the 2013 rookies to have an immediate fantasy impact. The only player I consider to be the exception is the Packers’ Lacy, who’s locked and loaded as the starting running back. With Rodgers’ aerial attack keeping defenses honest, Lacy should flirt with high-end RB2 status.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Mark Ingram, RB NO
To bastardize Mean Girls, “Stop trying to make Mark Ingram happen. It’s not going to happen!” Ingram is a straight line plodder who’s a poor fit for the Saints’ offense, and backfield mates Sproles and Pierre Thomas are better fantasy plays according to virtually every metric. I see him as a low-end RB3, at best.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Tony Romo, QB DAL
Simply put, he’s the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy football. If you throw out his injury-plagued 2010 campaign, Romo has been a top-10 quarterback every year, with an average as the QB6.6. Put your personal feelings aside – unless you play in a league that takes Week 17 into account, Romo is as solid an elite option as they come.
Karl Safchick
Fantasy MVP: Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
I’m not usually the guy that plays it safe in fantasy, but I can’t deny the ability of Peterson. He is considerably better at his position compared to his offensive counterparts. His offensive line is one of the better in the league at reestablishing the line of scrimmage. While I don’t see him surpassing the 2,000 yard milestone again, I can see him building on the mere 12 touchdowns he scored last year.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
Hopkins was the one rookie I targeted in dynasty start-ups this offseason. His ADP got way out of hand, but it shows that informed people are jumping all over this guy. He may not have the prototypical “Calvin Johnson” size or speed, but he can do it all. His impressive games against the SEC in college shows his ability to play against NFL caliber defenses.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
Everyone knows the best strategy when drafting is to wait on a quarterback. In dynasty, I believe that strategy applies tenfold. I’ll let a few quarterbacks get selected in every draft I participate in; not only because I’d rather have the value that the fifth or sixth quarterback brings, but also because I’m not sold that Rodgers will be considered the most valuable this time next year.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Jermaine Gresham, TE CIN
Most people who follow my work know this already, but Gresham is being unjustly underrated. Even many people who I have immense respect for overlook him on a daily basis. This kid is young, big, fast, talented and has way more opportunity that many give him credit for. I am of the belief that he will be re-signed in Cincinnati next offseason. Even if the Bengals choose not to give him a new contract, he could be signed by a team like the Packers or the Lions.
Jacob Feldman
Fantasy MVP: Dez Bryant, WR DAL
I think the light bulb has finally turned on for Dez. He has all the talent in the world and will take over the top wide receiver spot in points scored this year by a slim margin over Megatron thanks to the teams they play on.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN
The kid is electric. What he has done for the Vikings (especially on special teams) got my attention. I don’t expect him to score the most fantasy points (that will be Ball), but I think he’s going to be the most impressive rookie this year.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Doug Martin, RB TB
Don’t get me wrong, I think he is a nice RB1 to own but he is more in the middle of the RB1 pack than most think. Other than his two explosions last year, he was just okay the rest of the year. He can flash greatness, but he isn’t consistent enough to be even be in the discussion of a top 3 player overall.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Chris Givens, WR STL
This shouldn’t surprise anyone who has been following my work. I think Givens has a shot at being a top 25 wide receiver this year, yet he’s being drafted in the 10th round of startups. He’s going to be Bradford’s top target and surprise a lot of people. He has the talent.
The FFGhost
Fantasy MVP: Jimmy Graham, TE NO
This year with Gronk missing time, Hernandez in jail and Dennis Pitta out, if you own Graham, you own the tight end position in your league. The only competition here is Jason Witten and seeing as this is a dynasty based website, Witten is too old to begin acquiring.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kenjon Barner, RB CAR
Yeah, I’m going out on a limb here but I think Barner has a window of opportunity here and if he can capitalize on it he’s going to finally settle, once and for all, the backfield situation in Carolina. JStew is out and DWill just doesn’t have any real upside. If he shows what he can do, this abomination of a backfield will finally be behind us.
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player: Steven Jackson, RB ATL
There is a very particular reason I’m saying this. I think he may be good this year, maybe even next, but I’m seeing him go in the third and fourth round of dynasty leagues. You can’t realistically expect to build your dynasty team around a back who is 30 years old and has 10,000 yards rushing. That’s not taking the long view and is the sole reason I’m pegging Jackson here, not based on his impressive career.
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player: Tony Romo, QB DAL
Everyone loves to give Romo a hard time, it’s almost a national pastime. However, Romo is about as solid of a quarterback as you can get in fantasy football. He was third in passing yards last year, ahead of Brady, Manning and Rodgers, his career QB Rating is 95.6 which is roughly what Manning’s is at 95.7 and better than Brees at 94.3, Ryan at 90.9 or Stafford at 82.8 and he has less interceptions over the past two years at 29 (he was injured three years ago or I would have done a three year comparison) than Brees at 33 or Stafford at 33. He’s not a sexy pick, but he will win you games.
Ken Kelly
Fantasy MVP: Dez Bryant, WR DAL
I figured I was going to be on an island with this one, but I see one of my fellow brethren is thinking of the same here. Bryant is poised for another monster season after finally breaking through last year. If you take his last eight games and extrapolate them over the course of a season (yes, I know that’s dangerous), it equates to a grand total of 1,758 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns. When you consider you can get Bryant for a much lower cost than Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones or AJ Green, that’s definition of an MVP to me.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Kenbrell Thompkins, WR NE
I have to admit I’m a homer for a feel good story and this one has all the makings. A troubled childhood. A second chance. A cousin standing up for family. Battling all the odds to make a team. Seriously, this is like Rudy, only true. I actually think Eddie Lacy and some others could post more valuable seasons, but considering most got Thompkins for free off waivers, this could be Alfred Morris-like value that really infuses some energy behind some dynasty rebuilding efforts.
Most Overvalued: Lamar Miller, RB MIA
Miller and David Wilson are both pretty close to me. I think both can be really good players, but I’m letting someone else take that kind of risk in round two of start-up drafts. To me, people are treating them with perceived value instead of actual value and that’s a dangerous game to play. Chances are it pays off with these two, but that’s a chance I’ll let someone else take. I can also put just about any quarterback in the top ten on this list since the gap is getting so small it’s not worth burning a high pick for any specific one.
Most Undervalued: TY Hilton, WR IND
He may not be a starter on paper yet, but that’s going to change quickly. In short, there’s nobody I’m more aggressively pursuing at their current market value than Hilton.
Feel free to post your own below and make sure you join us tomorrow as we cover sleepers, buys, sells and comeback player of the year predictions.
