Comeback Player of the Year?

Steve Wyremski

mathewsRecency bias is a powerful thing. It’s pushed the fantasy community to stonewall Ryan Mathews since he broke his clavicle twice in 2012 – once prior to the start of the season and again in December ending the year. The bombardment of negative commentary throughout the offseason pushed Mathews’ dynasty ADP from the RB21 in April to the RB28 in August. It’s also impacted his redraft ADP significantly to roughly RB25. The Mathews’ grey cloud has allowed many to snag him in the fifth round in redrafts this offseason.

Still a supporter and a believer that he’s positioned as a bounce-back candidate, I’ve used this ADP, skepticism and deflated value as an opportunity to acquire a back at what I believe is a significant discount. After all, he’s only 25 years old and a year removed from a top ten running back finish.

Originally, this piece was to be positioned as another chapter in the ‘Unjustly Underrated’ series, but after his preseason performance thus far, it’s apparent that his value is on the rise. For the many doubters still out there, my intent is to support why this preseason flash of rebirth is a good bet to carry through the 2012 season. That’s even despite the presence of Danny Woodhead, who’s served the role of Mathews’ perceived production cap.

It was 2011…. it’s only 2013

The taste in your mouth from last year always weighs heavily on current year valuation in the dynasty world – that’s exactly why former or current Mathews’ owners are snake-bitten. After a season when he was a top ten dynasty pick off of a top ten finish where he face-planted due to injuries, you’d think he tore his Achilles. However, he’s only one season removed from a top ten fantasy season. That’s only one season and he’s still only 25 years old to start 2013.

Understanding Mathews’ 2011 Production

One of the biggest knocks against Mathews is the presence of Woodhead. The presumption is Woodhead is going to take third downs limiting Mathews to two downs. Given that, the assumption is that Mathews is a huge fantasy risk. What needs to be incorporated into that discussion is that in 2011 (with a top ten finish), Mathews only played 55% of the team’s snaps and Mike Tolbert played 48% of the team’s snaps. With those snaps, Mathews saw 58 targets, while Tolbert saw 70 targets.

Digging a bit deeper, looking specifically at the split of passing plays during all 14 games that Mathews played, Tolbert and Mathews each played 49% and virtually split targets and receptions. Simply put, Mathews’ snaps were limited due to the presence of Tolbert in 2011, just like his role is expected to be limited in 2013. Despite that, Mathews still finished as a top ten running back. Not to suggest that top ten is a given, but there’s no reason why the presence of Woodhead and his expected role should be a nail in Mathews’ value coffin.

That said, the one thing working against Mathews in the above is the number of pass attempts for the Chargers in 2011. That season, they threw more than any other year in the last five years. Here is how the last five years break down:

2012: 528 attempts

2011: 582 attempts

2010: 544 attempts

2009: 519 attempts

2008: 478 attempts

As a result, the number of pass attempts certainly helped Mathews numbers. However, even if you skim his receptions and receiving yards by the same percentage as the pass attempt drop to 478 attempts (22%), he still would have finished in the top fifteen. That may not directly correlate in reality, but the idea is that this isn’t likely to have a significant impact on his season.

Preseason Glimpses

Through three preseason games, Mathews has 26 carries for 121 yards with a 4.6 yard per carry average. It’s only the preseason, but that’s up nicely from his 3.8 yard per carry average in 2012 and more in line with his 2011 and 2010 averages. While just exhibition, it’s a positive fact. In addition, through those three preseason games, he’s running with a nice combination of power and speed. It appears that dropping ten pounds this off-season has helped. He looks like a player who’s significantly improved his readiness for the season as compared to an injury riddled 2012.

Coaching Staff Support

Early in the off-season, there were hints the Chargers were going to be a full-blown RBBC. Since the start of the preseason games, Coach Mike McCoy seems to have changed his tune. He’s praised Mathews noting the young back is running the way they want their running back to. Other reports have leaked suggesting they want to get Mathews the ball more in the passing game (this hasn’t been seen in action yet).

Woodhead’s Role

It’s unclear what Woodhead’s role will truly be, but it’s been suggested that he’ll see third downs and change of pace duty in relief of Mathews. We discussed that briefly above and the potential impact on Mathews’ 2011 season.

Most recently, reports suggested that Woodhead will play a similar role to what Darren Sproles did with the Chargers through 2010. Most notably, Sproles was involved heavily in the passing game in 2010 and 2009 where he recorded 59 and 45 receptions, respectively. The remaining running backs over those seasons accounted for 69 and 52 receptions. Ballpark, that should leave Mathews with anywhere from 25 to 40 receptions in 2013.

Concerns

There are a few obvious concerns with Mathews:

1-    Injury history

2-    Chargers pass attempts will be lower than 2011

3-    Chargers aren’t expected to be as good as they were over the last five years

The injury history is there with Mathews last season. In 2011, he missed two games and in his rookie season he missed a handful of games with a high ankle sprain. This certainly cannot be ignored. It’s worth considering whether Mathews may be more conditioned and prepared for the NFL season than the past considering he lost the weight and appears to be in excellent shape.

As far as the Chargers passing attempts and potentially not being as competitive as they were previously, these two concerns may cancel each other out. With fewer pass attempts, one may argue Mathews may see the ball more on the ground. On the flipside, if the Chargers are playing from behind, that may mean more pass-catching opportunities for Mathews than originally expected. Net-net, I wouldn’t expect this to have a significant impact.

Overall, while the injury history is certainly a concern, with ten pounds shed and Mathews looking like he’s in great shape, the young back is well situated for a bounce back season in 2013. He’s still a bargain while owners question whether they want to rely on him again in 2013 and is worth the gamble given his going rate.

Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveWyremski