Combine Blog: 2/24 Update (QB/RB/WR)

For many dynasty leaguers, the NFL combine is the official start of the next season.  While some have called it the”underwear olympics” or discounted its usefulness for comparing players, many others still find it to be a viable process.  I strongly believe in the combine process and the information that can be taken from it.  It’s true that agility and speed will be increased due to the lack of pads but it’s still a fair comparison as all players compete on an even footing.  More importantly, especially for the skill position players that fantasy coaches care about, being able to see muscle mass, build, foundation and athleticism can go a long way toward forecasting NFL potential.

Sunday is the big day with the Quarterbacks, Running Backs and Wide Receivers on the field for drills.  Saturday, as I write this, the Tight Ends are working out.  Keep checking back here or follow me on Twitter for up to date analysis and assessments of what I’m seeing from the workouts.

Sunday  

5:00 PM PST

Wide Receivers

On the wide receiver front, it was a decent showing.  Here’s a brief summary of those receivers that I’ve focused on for fantasy:

The light is really on for Tavon Austin.  The more I watch of him on tape, the more I like him.  He has been compared to Percy Harvin, which I agree with (although Mike Mayock does not).  It’s not that they have the same height, but the same build for their height and play-making skill relative to that height.  Looking further into Austin, I like what I’ve seen and heard character-wise as well.  He seems to be soft-spoken and humble, quite content to allow his play-making ability do the talking for him.  In the hands of a team like New England or even St. Louis, he could be a game changer in fantasy.  He’s that electric.

Cordarrelle Patterson is likely in a battle with Austin as the first receiver off the board.  Patterson is the best big receiver in this class pretty clearly, although a couple of other receivers did step up today.

Justin Hunter clocked a great 4.44 forty time and jumped out of the building with a 39.5″ vertical.  I think he’s a high second round pick although he could slip into the bottom of the first with a few receiver needy teams in the market.  He and Markus Wheaton from Oregon State both had a strong showing today.  Wheaton looked very agile and quick.

Quinton Patton helped himself today as well.  He’s likely a late second round selection but he showed nice agility and solid hands.

Stedman Bailey also stood out today.  I didn’t have a high grade on him but I’m going to go back to tape to find out more.  I want to see snaps other than his highlights.

Robert Woods looked a little stiff as the day wore on.  I hoped to see more agility out of him.  His forty time was slower than expected but he may still be hampered by the ankle injury.  In the gauntlet drill, he performed very well and showed that he was one the best pure hand catchers in this draft.  He’s effortless in his use of his hands, switching nicely when needed.  He likely is a second round selection.

I was disappointed in DeAndre Hopkins.  He plays faster than his timed speed and his other measurables were so-so.  I expected more.

The surprise of the day was one Ryan Swope from Texas A&M.  Swope ran as fast as Tavon Austin (4.34) and jumped an impressive 37″ in the vertical.  He followed that up with nice times in the agility drills.  He may be considered a poor man’s Tavon Austin but he’s in the same class regardless.  As a slot receiver in the mold of a Wes Welker, he’s going to be a dangerous weapon in the hands of a capable offensive coordinator.

Runner-up for surprise of the day was Denard Robinson, the converting quarterback out of Michigan.  He had a nice showing across the board as an overall athlete and could be used in a number of roles.  He’s got slot receiver ability.

I’ll be heading back to tape on all the players I’ve highlighted today and will update you further as my rankings begin to shift.

3:30 PM PST

With the skill positions now in the books, let’s do a recap of what we’ve learned and how my rankings may change based on what was seen today.  I’ll follow up with the receivers a bit later.

Quarterbacks

It’s a mysterious bunch and not one that fantasy leaguers will be high on.  With the exception of West Virginia’s Geno Smith, there’s a lot of risk in this group.  I didn’t see enough from any of the quarterbacks to significantly raise or lower them on my ranking list.  Smith will be a top ten pick, I have no doubt about that.  He’s a smart player and fits the mold of someone that could be the face of a franchise.  Outside of Smith, there are seemingly a fair number of second round talents.  I did find myself impressed with both Mike Glennon and Tyler Bray.  Both had a nice release and could spin the ball well, with plenty of arm strength.  Ryan Nassib perhaps had the best arm as you could see ball leap from his delivery and he has a lot of torque.  Accuracy wise, it was hit and miss but that’s to be expected here.

I don’t see any quarterback outside of Smith gracing the top ten rookie selections.  If you’re a fantasy coach in need of a quarterback, he’s a worthy selection in the top five.

Running Backs

A quick breakdown of the backs I’m really tracking this year:

Just as a reminder, Eddie Lacy and Marcus Lattimore did not perform any on-field drills.

Knile Davis threw up the surprise of the day with his official 4.37 40 time, that was completely unexpected from a back of his size.  Unsurprisingly he lagged the field a bit in the 20 yard shuttle and three cone drill.  The knock on Davis is his football instincts and ball security.  He may be a little bit like workout warrior Chris Henry from a few years ago.  Either way, if he lands in a good situation I wouldn’t be surprised to see him chosen in the top five of fantasy rookie drafts.  For myself, he just doesn’t have the overall package that I need to see in a back for me to risk a top five selection on.

Christine Michael had a very nice showing and likely has sent NFL coaches back to the tape room.  I’ve already watched a lot of tape on Michael and came away very impresses.  The knock on Michael is his off the field issues and attitude.  But he certainly helped his draft stock today and his 4.54 forty time is certainly enough to to be intriguing.  He’s got great hips and it’s very evident in his agility.

Giovani Bernard held his ground.  I was disappointed in his 40 time and thought he’d be closer to 4.40. He’s not a burner but displayed good agility and everything that you need to know about Bernard is seen on tape.  He has a great base, good balance and plays faster than his timed speed.

Kenjon Barner turned a few heads today and closely matched Bernard in most every drill.  You can almost make the argument that they are the same type of back.

Le’Veon Bell impressed me with his size-to-agility quotient.  He moves well for a big bodied back and his size is enough to draw interest on day two.  He’s not a burner but his 4.60 forty is enough.  Remember that Alfred Morris ran a 4.67 last year.

Stepfan Taylor did not have a good showing and he’ll want to work out again at his pro day.  Similarly so for Joseph Randle and Andre Ellington, both finished the day early with minor injuries.

My biggest riser overall is Jonathan Franklin.  I’ve watched more tape on him, watched him closely today and came away further impressed.  He reminds me a lot of Donald Brown without the health issues.  Relatively compact, good vision, agility and enough speed that when he finds a crease, he’s through it.  He approaches the line of scrimmage a bit more passively than I like but I attribute that to his patience.  He tends to chop his feet a little like the aforementioned Brown.  Overall, Franklin I think can be a round two back that has a lot of upside.

In summary for the running backs, it’s a mixed bag.  Not being able to see Lacy and Lattimore allowed others to showcase but there relatively tightly grouped and, likely, frought with risk.  You could make a case for any of the backs today finding fantasy relevance over time.  This will likely be one of those drafts where a focus on talent over situation ends up being the smart play.  It’s a good year to hold a late first round selection in fantasy if you’re needing running back help.

11:15 AM PST

Ok, we’re about through with the first runs of the RBs and there haven’t been many surprises.

Montee Ball ran a 4.62, was hoping that he’d be closer to 4.50.

Gio Bernard ran a 4.50, I expected faster.  But he looks like he’s got a great base.  Interested to see his cone drills.

Knile Davis was the big surprise running a stunning 4.30 at 227 lbs.  He’ll be a sleeper late in the first round of fantasy drafts.

Andre Ellington runs a 4.59 which is a bit disappointing.

Johnathan Franklin ran a 4.47 and Mike Gillislee ran a 4.50, about as expected on both.

Christine Michael, one of my real sleepers for talent, ran a very nice 4.41.  He’s got a lot of off the field issues and is a risk.

Joseph Randle ran a 4.63 which will drop him a bit.

And the most disappointing first run was for Stepfan Taylor who churned out a 4.78.

After the first runs, I can see my board changing just a bit.  I focus a lot on body type and need to see the hip-action of each back in the cone drills before making any final determination, but I am finding myself intrigued by a couple of new names and will be returning to tape.

10:25 AM PST

Official times are coming in a fair amount slower.  Tavon Austin’s time was downgraded to a 4.34, nearly a tenth of a second slower than Goodwin’s official 4.27.  Watching it on simulcast, it sure looked much closer.  That said, Marquise Goodwin doesn’t project to the NFL simply because of his speed.  He’s a track guy and isn’t nearly the football player that Austin is.

I came away impressed with Patterson, Wheaton and Robert Woods.  Wheaton and Woods both catch the ball very well.  Wheaton’s 20 reps on the 225 lb. press was impressive given his size.

Tavon Austin seems like a great player, he’s going to be rising on my board following more tape watching, there’s no doubt about that.  I especially like his quiet character.

Quinton Patton did a nice job today, running faster than I expected and he displayed nice hands.

Another player that surprised me was Denard Robinson.  Working out as a receiver, he held his own.  He fought his hands and the complexity of the gauntlet drill, but looked fluid and confident otherwise.

Running backs are on the field ….

9:00 AM PST

Great times being run by the receivers this morning.  And I’m impressed with the size of the class overall.   Just deepens by belief that there are going to be some nice players that come out of the group in the second round of your fantasy draft.

Cordarrelle Patterson just ran his second forty.  His first attempt was a 4.37 followed by 4.40.  His speed is legit and he could be in a race for the first receiver off the board with Tavon Austin.

Quinton Patton ran a 4.46 and a 4.50, raising his stock a bit.

Markus Wheaton will be raising on boards as coaches begin to watch tape and pair that with his 4.34 time.  He’s the all time leader for the Beavers and has the skill set to have an impact in the NFL

Da’Rick Rogers ran a bit slower than I expected with a first forty of 4.56.

Robert Woods ran a respectable 4.44 time although I was hoping to see something just below 4.40.  It’s still a good time and he’s reported to have an ankle injury.

Running backs should be up soon.

6:15 AM PST

The first grouping of QBs have finished running.  Nothing of real note to report.

Tavon Austin just turned in a 4.25 forty.  Ridiculous.  It is unofficial but the run looked every bit of 4.25 to me.  Austin reminds me a lot of Harvin in body type as well, he’s rocked up.  A second forty of 4.31.

Marquise Goodwin matched Austin with a 4.25 of his own.  A second 40 of 4.29.

Above all else, I’m really impressed by the size of this receiver class.  Better yet, the speeds being recorded thus far are quite noteworthy.

Saturday 

12:30 PM PST

What will I be watching tomorrow?

Disappointed that Matt Barkley won’t be throwing but it’s not surprising.  A couple of the NFL scouts have lambasted USC players for bowing out of the drills time and time again.  Kudos to Geno Smith for putting it all on the line as he should.  Barkley’s arm strength has come under fire and he’s been compared to Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton.  I expect that he’ll be falling come draft day.

I’m very interested in seeing the running backs run this year.  Just as important, I’m looking at the build of this year’s backs.  Specifically, I’m looking at Giovani Bernard.  He’s got a great base/foundation and seeing him in this venue is a great place isolate that on camera.  I think he might have a little MJD in him.  Eddie Lacy won’t be running which is disappointing.  He also weighed in 10 lbs. more than I expected.  I don’t think that works in his favor.

If Montee Ball can slip into the high 4.4s for his forty time, he’s going to ruse up boards quickly.  His value is all over the place depending on what you like in your backs.  Ball isn’t stellar in every phase of the game, but he’s got elite vision, gets downhill quickly and has natural feel behind the line of scrimmage.  Best of all, he’s got a nose for the end zone  like no other.  I think too many are going to sleep on him come draft day, both in the NFL and in fantasy.

I’m also looking to get more information on Le’Veon Bell, Joseph Randle and Christine Michael.  Mike Gillislee also has my interest, specifically in the 40.

With this year’s receivers, I’m leaving myself wide open for impression and assessment.  I’m checking my preconceived notions at the door and allowing myself to assess as the players perform.  Cordarrelle Patterson sure looks the part and I expect he’s going to be force to be reckoned with tomorrow.

11:45 AM PST

Tyler Eifert likely secured the top tight end selection with an official 4.68 forty time.  He caught the ball well enough, and looked the part.  I don’t spend a lot of time or effort on the tight end class unless a player leaps off the page, like Vernon Davis did.

Zach Ertz stayed in the race with a 4.76 forty.

Mychal Rivera looks quicker than his 4.81 forty and has displayed good agility and hands thus far.

The biggest item from today’s events thus far was the Manti Te’o press conference.  While he has certainly been coached through this process he still did a very nice job of seeming genuine, embarrassed and humbled by the process.  Certain things can’t be coached and you have to give Te’o credit for his performance on that stage.

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Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

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