2012 Pre-Draft Rookie Tiers

Jeff Haverlack

andrew_luckTiering is an exercise we use in an attempt to gauge the depth of a particular position, group of players or a class of incoming rookies.  Through this effort, we get an idea of the distribution of talent and the attached production expectations that we can then use to derive value, even if somewhat subjective in nature.

With veteran players who have historical production attached to their careers, the exercise is more simple.  With an incoming rookie class who have yet to see a single snap in the NFL, we can only guess as to what degree they will surpass, or fall short of, their collegiate production at the next level.  Despite the best efforts of experts, projecting rookie impact is a guessing game. Through the use of tiers, we can group players in such a way to help reduce the focus on the names and, instead, place it on the talent related to that of others within the group.

Before listing this years top forty rookies, let me mention one more thought about the top tiers.  When I place players in the top tiers, primarily tiers one and two, I do not do so only relative to that year’s group of rookies.  Meaning, the top tiers are reserved for those players who are deserving of a top tier grade based on their talent alone, not simply because they may be the top of the current rookie class.  It is quite possible for a rookie class to have no “Tier One” players.

Lastly, understand that tiering prior to NFL draft is primarily a tool for determining draft talent depth for purposes of pre-draft trading and draft strategy planning.  Much more information and value will be determined following the draft, which will likely affect lower tiers more than the upper ones.

Tier 1

01.  Andrew Luck
02.  Robert Griffin III
03.  Trent Richardson
04.  Justin Blackmon

The first tier of the rookies for 2012 is a good one, especially at the quarterback position.  Andrew Luck and RGIII are as good as they come and Washington has set the price for a prospect of that caliber.  Indianapolis is fortunate to get Luck as Washington had to sell the farm to land the right to select RGIII with the second pick. You can’t ask for much better than Trent Richardson as the first running back off the board, though it would be nice if there was a 1b to Richardson’s 1a status.  Justin Blackmon is a solid prospect as well and is likely to be gone in the first six picks of the draft, but I don’t view him as elite as I did Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald.

Tier 2

05.  Lamar Miller
06.  David Wilson
07.  Michael Floyd
08.  Doug Martin
09.  Chris Polk
10.  Ryan Tannehill

This year yields a deep draft and it’s a good one to have any pick in the first round.  There is a definite talent dropoff after 1.04, but the depth from the Tier 2 rookies provides enough value to be at least somewhat hopeful of the potential fantasy production.  It’s quite possible that the first round of the NFL Draft will only see a single running back off the board.  Given the need of some teams in the bottom third of the NFL draft, I believe at least one additional back will be selected on day one.  Teams like Cincinnati, Green Bay and the New York Giants could all use help at the position late in the first round.  I do prefer Lamar Miller over David Wilson and even Doug Martin is slowly overtaking Wilson on my board.  It’s a three-sided coin flip as to which will have the best fantasy career.  Truth be told, I also believe that any of them could easily have a better fantasy career than Trent Richardson.

Michael Floyd is pushing Justin Blackmon for top receiver honors, but I have Blackmon ranked highly enough such that Floyd won’t be overtaking him on my board.  Floyd is a near-certain lock for second receiver off the board and will present teams in the 1.05 – 1.07 with a nice opportunity. Chris Polk is a niftier back than he’s being given credit for but both Polk and Ryan Tannehill are on the bubble as possible Tier 3 players.  I’m just not that high on Tannehill and expect he’ll be overdrafted in the NFL due to the needs of such teams as Cleveland, Miami and Kansas City.

Tier 3

11.  Stephen Hill
12.  Kendall Wright
13.  Rueben Randle

This tier is the most intriguing and likely represents the top of the second round of fantasy drafts.  This is where the “hope and a prayer” picks start and having three wide receivers in this tier a good way to start it.  All three have value and project relatively well to the NFL, but receivers bust at a very high rate and you must be careful about overdrafting them.  Expect one or two of these players to slip into the bottom of the first round of many fantasy drafts, especially in PPR leagues.

Tier 4

14.  Mohamed Sanu
15.  LaMichael James
16.  Alshon Jeffery

I would like to rank Alshon Jeffery higher, but I can’t.  Watching tape on him, he just doesn’t show the physicality and presence I need to see to climb in my rankings.  For now, he’s a fourth tier rookie in this draft and a middle second round selection in fantasy.  Mohamed Sanu isn’t fast by any stretch, but he plays faster on tape, makes tough receptions and he’s gritty.  LaMichael James is an enigma.  He’ll be overdrafted in fantasy for sure.

Tier 5

17.  Bernard Pierce
18.  Coby Fleener
19.  Brian Quick
20. Isaiah Pead
21.  Robert Turbin
22.  Nick Toon
23.  Jeff Fuller

Coby Fleener is the interesting player in this group and he could rise a tier following the draft – he’s NFL ready. I love his body of work and he’s got the line-of-scrimmage presence and play that separates quality tight ends from those who never see the field.  He fits the mold perfectly of the new-look tight end packages that teams are starting to feature.  Robert Turbin is a riser as well and could climb.  Most are too high on him but, in the right system, he’ll get a chance.  Brian Quick is a very intriguing prospect and I’d love to see him develop – so few do from this level, though.

Tier 6

24.  Cyrus Gray
25.  Tommy Streeter
26.  Marvin Jones
27.  Juron Criner
28.  Ryan Broyles
29.  Devon Wylie
30.  Brandon Weeden

This year’s tier six players are quite talented for the tier they represent.  The reason for this is because this is a pre-draft tiering system.  Expect multiple players from this group to rise a tier or two after we can determine their respective drafted situations.  I particularly like Tommy Streeter, Marvin Jones, Juron Criner and Ryan Broyles from this group.  Brandon Weeden is most certainly better than a Tier Six prospect at quarterback, but his age reduces his fantasy potential rather significantly.  Many will argue this as they did when I said the same of Chris Weinke.  I’d love to see Broyles return from his injury and catch on in the NFL as a very capable slot receiver.

Tier 7

31.  Kirk Cousins
32.  Ronnie Hillman
33.  Dwight Jones
34.  Ryan Lindley
35.  Nick Foles
36.  Tauren Poole
37.  Dwayne Allen
38.  Orson Charles
39.  Case Keenum
40.  Dan Herron

For those of you with twelve teams or more, here are your fourth round selections.  A few intriguing names jump out here, specifically Ronnie Hillman, Dwight Jones and Ryan Lindley.  All three have enough of a skill set to have a chance.

We’ll regroup after the draft!

Make sure to check out all the initial premium content:

Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings with Extended Commentary
Extended interview with Matt Waldman
Free Agency Winners
Free Agency Losers
Third Year Wide Receiver Breakdown


jeff haverlack