IDP Improvements: Moves to Make before Week 17
In last week’s article, we identified young players who were trending in the right direction to become 2025 breakout candidates. This week, in the final article of this series, we have poured through 2024 data to determine the less obvious sell-high candidates who, despite exceeding expectations in 2024, may struggle to maintain their current dynasty value.
Kenneth Murray, LB TEN – Sell
Murray has enjoyed a productive 2024 season. In 14 games, he has compiled 94 tackles, four sacks, one forced fumble, one interception, and one pass breakup.
Tennessee Titans linebackers Jack Gibbens, Luke Gifford, Jerome Baker and Otis Reese are scheduled to become free agents in 2025. On that basis alone, common sense would suggest Kenneth Murray – as one of the very few Titans linebackers under contract through 2025 – is set to reprise his role as an every-down linebacker for the team next season.
However, the underlying metrics demonstrate Murray has been consistently poor in both pass coverage and run defense since he entered the league as a much-hyped first-round selection in the 2020 draft. In 2024, he has the lowest overall PFF run defense grade among all starting NFL linebackers, one of the worst coverage grades, and one of the worst overall grades. Gibbens and Gifford outplayed him at times, and it’s not unreasonable to suggest they may have eaten into Murray’s snap share were they not to suffer untimely injuries.
The Titans will almost certainly address the linebacker unit in free agency or the draft. Cedric Gray, the Titans’ fourth-round pick in 2024, registered only a single defensive snap through the first 15 weeks but, in week 16, led the team in tackles following a wrist injury, which cut short Murray’s day. The jury is still out on Gray’s dynasty value, but he will be more involved next season if he finishes strongly.
Murray’s dynasty value increased earlier this season but then plateaued and has since decreased slightly. Depending on how the Titans address their linebacker room, that trend may continue into 2025.
Andrew Van Ginkel, EDGE MIN – Sell
Van Ginkel has enjoyed a career year. He’s tied for sixth in the league with 11 sacks and has added 56 combined tackles, two interceptions, and a forced fumble. He started the year strongly and never looked back:
VAN GINKEL PICK-6! 🚨
📺: #MINvsNYG on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/dTkLrnbCOh— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
The Minnesota Vikings veteran has more than justified the $12m cap number he is due in 2025 and should be back with the team once again. Still, his dynasty stock could suffer. He turns 30 before the start of next season and will compete for a role with marquee 2024 signing Jonathan Greenard, who is currently third among all edge rushers with 69 pressures and tied with Van Ginkel with 11 sacks. He must also fend off the Viking’s 2024 first-round selection, Dallas Turner, who will almost certainly feature more heavily in his sophomore year.
We know that pressure rate is more indicative of future sack production than finishing rate. Therefore, it is mildly concerning that Van Ginkel ranks 558th among 120 edge rushers with a 12.3% pressure rate but has produced more sacks than expected because his 24.4% pressure-to-sack ratio is well above the league average. It is also a red flag that his 11.9% win rate, or the percentage of the time Van Ginkel beats blockers, ranks 80th among all edge rushers.
In summary, we acknowledge Van Ginkel is an excellent player and fully expect him to be a fantasy-viable IDP asset in 2025. Still, his age, combined with underwhelming underlying metrics and predicted competition for snaps in 2025, suggests it may be challenging for him to sustain the kind of production he has had in 2024.
Xavier McKinney, S GB – Sell
McKinney had an interception in each of the season’s first five games and has added two more since to tie Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph with a league-leading seven. As one of the best safeties in 2024, it was no less than McKinney deserved.
Xavier McKinney: interception machine pic.twitter.com/T853M5kj3B
— Lily Zhao (@LilySZhao) November 24, 2024
Unfortunately, history shows that defensive backs are less likely to repeat as top options in fantasy from one year than other defensive positions. As a player who has not demonstrated a knack for making big plays in coverage during his NFL career, McKinney is arguably at greater risk of failing to meet the high standards he has set in 2024.
Other players you should consider as sell-high candidates are:
Jahlani Tavai, LB NE – Sell
Christian Rozeboom, LB LAR – Sell
Dante Fowler Jr., EDGE WAS – Sell
Pat Jones, EDGE MIN – Sell
Xavier Woods, S CAR – Sell
Conclusion
This is a dynasty-focused article, so some of the recommendations listed here may be inadvisable if you are in the midst of a playoff run and have to drop a more established player who could be more impactful in the fantasy championship game. As always, consider these suggestions in the context of your league’s scoring format, starting requirements, and roster limitations.
- IDP Improvements: Moves to Make before Week 17 - December 25, 2024
- IDP Improvements: Moves to Make before Week 16 - December 18, 2024
- IDP Improvements: Moves to Make before Week 15 - December 11, 2024
