Dynasty Decision: Tua Tagovailoa
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB MIA
Maybe one of the most divisive players in all of fantasy, Tagovailoa is operating one of the highest power offenses in the entire league. Depending on who you ask, he is considered by some to be the reason for that and others as a result of the play calling and skill position players. He is now due an extension this off-season, and it will be fascinating to see how the Dolphins approach it given the mega extensions Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow signed last off-season. If the Dolphins do extend him and it starts to limit the resources available to build around him, could we see a decline in his fantasy production? Should you be looking to move on from him or hold him for now?
Previous Performance
As a rookie, he did not see the field immediately, sitting behind Ryan Fitzpatrick for the first five games before seeing the field in week six. His numbers were okay, with 14 touchdowns and only five interceptions, but he didn’t push the ball downfield with an average depth of target of 6.2. This saw him taken off the field a couple of times during games for the more aggressive Fitzpatrick.
During the 2021 season, he missed four games due to injury but played well in a 9-8 Dolphins team. He finished as the QB24 in points per game, averaging only 14.7. After that season, the Dolphins moved on from Brian Flores as head coach, brought in Mike McDaniel, and traded for Tyreek Hill. This led to an explosion for the entire offense and was something Tagovailoa benefited from hugely. He finished as the QB10 in PPG with an average of 18.4 points per game. The biggest concern was the fact that he suffered three concussions in a short time span, which threatened to potentially end his career.
For the first time in his career, he played a full 17 games during the 2023 season and helped take the offense another step forward. The offense finished third in points per game, and he was the QB9 overall.
Situation and Usage
From a situational standpoint, few quarterbacks have a better situation over the next two seasons. Throwing passes to maybe the best receiver in the league and having a stud as a second receiver in Jaylen Waddle is the envy of almost anyone. Add onto that one of the best play-callers in the league, and it just expresses how good the surrounding situation is.
Tyreek Hill is aging but isn’t showing many signs of slowing down, and he should still be an elite producer for the next two seasons. Waddle will likely be playing until 2025 on his rookie contract (including the 5th year option). So, the situation will unlikely change for the negative over the next two seasons. The hope is that they could find a reliable third receiving option to add to the group, whether that be De’Von Achane stepping up in his second year or bringing in somebody else. If they can find that third option, it could allow Tagovailoa to make the next step into the top-eight quarterbacks for fantasy.
Contract
Contractuality is perhaps the most significant question mark surrounding Tagovailoa. He is scheduled to play the 2024 season on his fifth-year option. It is unlikely the Dolphins are going to want to risk allowing that to play out, so they would likely want to ink him to a long-term extension this off-season. The questions come with what number they can agree to. The Dolphins will likely want any extension to come in a tier below the mega contract of Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, who signed for $52.5m and $55m per year, respectively. Tagovailoa’s camp will likely be pushing to be as close to that number as possible. I would expect any extension to come in north of Daniel Jones‘s $40m per year and likely end up around Kyler Murray‘s $46.1m per year average. It’s a big question, and where that number finally lands will play a big part in how the Dolphins are able to continue to build around their franchise QB moving forward.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the QB13 in January ADP and the 99th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth mid second-round pick in a 1QB league or the 1.02 in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
I think it is tough to find a strict line on where to value Tua Tagovailoa. In a superflex league, he is likely a solid and reliable high-end QB2/low-end QB1 over the next two seasons; at the very least, that has significant value. However, given his lack of rushing production and the quality of the run game in Miami, there will always be a limited ceiling. Unless something drastically changes, it is unlikely that he will produce a top-five fantasy season soon.
While there is a lot of value in the secure production he provides, high-end QB2 production is entirely replaceable at a significantly reduced cost. You could acquire Aaron Rodgers or Kirk Cousins, who will likely have a similar production level but will cost half the amount to acquire. Yes, they are significantly older and will likely have shorter longevity. Still, personally, I would instead use the extra asset to build something longer-term or attack a different position with it. If you’re a contender, I would happily pivot from him to one of those older quarterbacks and pick up a mid-first-round pick. If you’re rebuilding, I would happily take a chance on an undervalued player like Bryce Young, plus another asset.
In a 1QB league, I would avoid him and certainly not actively look to acquire him. At a replaceable position like quarterback, I would take two or three shots at a higher upside option rather than opt for a safe player. If you can sell him for an early second-round pick, I would make that move.
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