Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: How Much for Breece Hall?

Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).

And with that, welcome to the money season! Yes, I’m acutely aware none of us are scoring points and winning matches over the next several months, but this is when we’ll be making the moves that will shape the year to come. So whether it’s DLF’s off-season ADP, rookie rankings and profiles, or other resources, we still need to keep our eyes on the prize. No rest for the weary!

Let’s get to it!

Hall Monitoring

When and what would you offer to get Breece Hall? PPR, have to start 2 RBs.
My team:
QB: Lawrence
RB: Bijan, Etienne, R White, Z White, Spears, Abanikanda
WR: Lamb, D Smith, J Williams, Shakir, Iosivas, Burks
TE: Laporta, Freiermuth
2024 1sts: 1, 2, 4-6, 8, 10. Thank you!

— Eric Reitz (@eric_reitz23) February 9, 2024

Following an ACL tear that unfortunately ended his fantastic rookie campaign, Breece Hall has eclipsed every obstacle in his way. Slow start while he rounded back into form? After the season’s first month, he averaged 21.4 opportunities per game (carries plus targets). Defenses keying on the run game after quarterback Aaron Rodgers was lost for the season? Hall still averaged a robust 4.5 YPC. Supposed competition in the backfield? Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter were both released before the end of the season, and rookie Israel Abanikanda had a whopping 22 carries on the year.

These events effectively coalesced into a finish as the PPR RB2 in 2023, despite the putrid nature of the Jets offense. Unsurprisingly, Hall is back amongst dynasty royalty, as the RB3 and ninth player off the board per the most recent ADP. This is all to say he’s not going to come cheap.

Looking at your team, I’ll remove players like Bijan Robinson, CeeDee Lamb and Sam LaPorta from the equation, as involving them in a potential trade would be equivalent to treading water. My natural assumption is you’re looking to strengthen your starting lineup, not move assets around across positions. So let’s see how you can potentially level up with your current assets?

First and foremost, you have a wealth of picks. I wouldn’t be looking to trade pick 1.01, though Hall would indeed be a worthy prize. But then you’re stuck benching players like Travis Etienne and Rachaad White to make room for your trade acquisition. And while Lamb is great and DeVonta Smith is a fine WR2, you have some holes after that. This is a receiver room that would benefit from the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr.

You could also stand an upgrade under center. Trevor Lawrence is the definition of “fine,” but your starting lineup is leaving points on the field with the Jaguar not having taken the next step in his third year in the league. Adding a piece here should strengthen your lineup further.

To be clear, I’m not a Jacksonville hater by any stretch, but Etienne is the guy I’d be most looking to move. His value is likely at its highest after finishing as the PPR RB3. But while I admit this is the definition of subjectivity, I still have trouble buying in – I don’t view him as a locked and loaded stud moving forward.

Digging deeper, Etienne started the year on fire, finishing as an RB1 in six of his first eight games, including five games of 20+ PPR points. But look at how he concluded the year following a week nine bye. Apart from a great game against the sad sack Carolina Panthers, he was a replacement-level player. To that point, his only RB1 performances were against fellow jungle cat teams, with the outing versus the Panthers his only game over 20 PPR points. Notably, he had four games of fewer than 10 PPR points, and two more under 14 PPR points. His 325 touches on the year were his all-time high across both the NFL and college, and it’s fair to wonder if he simply began to wear down. Rational minds may differ, but we all have our gut feelings – for me, I wouldn’t want to wait around and see if 2023 represents Etienne’s finest fantasy season.

So what would an upgrade look like?

Remember, this is just an exercise in exploring possibilities, but your ability to trade will ultimately come down to your explicit trade partner. But this is a deal I’d likely be okay with. No, you don’t want to get rid of pick 1.02, but you’re already getting Harrison at 1.01 – this doesn’t make Malik Nabers less valuable, but it does lessen the possibility of him having an impact in your lineup. More importantly, you’re improving at two positions and getting the best asset in the deal – when that’s the case, an overpayment is usually required.

Alternatively, you could seek an absolutely stacked team at the expense of your plethora of picks.

Again, this is just a starting point for a nuanced conversation. Given your already strong lineup and incoming small army of rookies, you’re negotiating from a position of strength, so there are a number of possibilities for you. Personally, I’d make either of these trades if they were available to me.

And one more from through the online form – keep sending those questions on Twitter or through the website!

Behold the Powers of Bowers!

I have made monumentally dumb trades offloading two QBs I didn’t believe in recently: CJ Stroud and Brock Purdy. Thankfully, I still have Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, so my team (superflex, tight end premium) is in fine shape, but I certainly have not maximized value. I’d rather not make a similar mistake again. I have the 1.04 and 1.05 in this year’s draft. For sake of discussion, let’s assume Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison, and Jayden Daniels go 1-2-3, and I’m deciding among Drake Maye, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, and Brock Bowers with my two picks. I’m inclined to say that Nabers and Bowers would be a great pair to go try to win another championship this year. But I am wary of passing up on QB value, even if it’s as a third QB (not currently rostering a 3rd). Am I overthinking this and trying to make up for stupid past mistakes?

-Jesse A.

This is a safe space! We’ve all made moves we wish we could have back – my all-timer occurred in the months prior to the 2014 season, when I sent a rookie Odell Beckham and Delanie Walker for Giants receiver Victor Cruz. We all know what happened next – Beckham beasted for several years while Walker became a top-end tight end. Cruz suffered an unfortunate patellar tendon injury and was never the same again. So I hear you!

To quote Ted Lasso, “be a goldfish.” If you’re not suffering a deficit at a position, then don’t worry about not previously maximizing value – you’re simply seeking to add the best players you can regardless of the moves you made before.

Agnostic to that, your situation is a doozie! My recommendation would be for Nabers and Maye were it just a superflex league, but the tight end premium format adds to the conundrum. Let’s use our resources at hand to try and find a way forward.

Shown here are DLF’s current Cornerstone Rankings, which account for the superflex format but not a tight end premium paradigm. As can be seen, before even playing an NFL snap Maye is still viewed as a top-four asset amongst 2023, 2024 and 2025 NFL rookies. Nabers is the ninth player listed overall, followed by Bowers at #18. I know I’ve touched on these types of scenarios the past few weeks, but I’ll reiterate my stance that no matter how good a situation I think I have under center, I’m always looking to add to my quarterback room. We can’t predict the future, but signal callers who put up solid rookie seasons have shown an ability to spike in value and receive value insulation. Especially if Maye is selected in the top three picks in the NFL Draft as anticipated, I’d seek to select him.

So who next? Per these rankings, Nabers seems the likely pick, but a tight end premium format evens the odds. Sam LaPorta is only a few spots behind Nabers and is already popularly viewed as the dynasty TE1, showing what happens when a unicorn is discovered at a largely garbage position. As a LaPorta owner in a tight end premium league I can say confidently I wouldn’t trade him for Nabers – if Bowers receives the expected draft capital and can put up reasonable numbers, I foresee him approaching a similar status.

Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

We mustn’t forget how good Bowers was in college. He broke out immediately and dominated as a freshman with nearly 900 yards and 13 scores. Though his proclivity for finding the end zone diminished as a sophomore, he increased his receptions and yards. This trend continued in his junior year which saw a robust per-game line of 5.6-71.4-0.6 – while Bowers unfortunately missed time due to injury, it seemed likely he would have been a 1,000-yard receiver had he stayed healthy.

Nabers will likely be fantastic, but there is simply more talent at the receiver position, and nowhere is that truer than in this year’s NFL draft. But Bowers has elite potential at a position begging for it, and this is heightened by your league’s format. Though it’s a close call, he’d be my pick at 1.05.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.