Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues
Welcome to the ‘Buy, Sell, or Hold’ series where each week I’ll be focusing on one position to analyze four players and what we should be doing with them. This week I’ll be looking at four running backs of varying value. Let’s dive in.
Kyren Williams, RB LAR – Buy
What a year. Kyren Williams was basically left for dead before the 2023 season. There was a little bit of excitement once the preseason came around as the Rams held him out of the preseason which tipped off he would for sure have a role in the offense but no one expected he’d be the RB2 in points per game at season’s end. Williams may not be the athlete we normally like though he certainly looks to be a player who’s on the field athleticism is better than his testing numbers and he can handle a large workload while being effective in all areas.
The Move – Despite is undesirable draft capital I think Kyren Williams is the Rams bell cow running back and am treating him as such. Williams is easily worth a first-round rookie draft pick plus at this point considering his age, projectable workload, and proven scoring ability with that workload. I want to buy if his current manager doesn’t consider him a top 12 dynasty running back and won’t charge me those prices.
James Conner, RB ARI – Wait (to buy)
James Conner is like a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, never your first choice but always gets the job done. Conner has now had at least 15.4 PPR points per game in each of his three years with the Cardinals but no one seems to want to talk about it. Yes, Conner has missed an average of 3.4 games per season. Running backs miss games, this is a normal thing. Conner may miss more than the average running back but anytime he’s on the field he’s produced. Age is a concern as he will be turning 29 this year but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down.
The Move – Conner is likely to outproduce his dynasty market value yet again in 2024 and competing teams should be looking to acquire him this offseason but now is not the time to buy. Wait until rookie drafts come around when the Conner manager is focused on the new toys and buy him for a couple of third-round rookie picks or tier down from Aaron Jones, Zach Charbonnet, or Joe Mixon for Conner and a sweetener on top.
Chuba Hubbard, RB CAR – Sell
Miles Sanders may have gotten the big contract, but Chuba Hubbard got the last laugh. It started with Hubbard eating into Sanders’ workload before Sanders got hurt and Hubbard never looked back, becoming a workhorse for the Panthers. Over his last 12 games, Hubbard averaged 19.4 opportunities and 12.5 points per game. You’d love to see more production on that many opportunities but it’s hard to envision any running backs having much success in what was a dreadful Panther’s offense.
The Move – Sell sell sell. I thought Hubbard was a good investment heading into the 2023 season because I thought Miles Sanders would struggle to own the backfield and while that panned out, Hubbard is a player I don’t think will hold value for long so it’s best to get a decent return while you can. He’s a fairly average running back and the Panthers could easily replace both him and Sanders as they try to surround Bryce Young with weapons. If you’re able to get a second-round rookie pick for him, do it now.
Brian Robinson, RB WAS – Hold
Brian Robinson certainly shattered some expectations in 2023. As a rookie Robinson was viewed as a two-down grinder and only managed 12 targets in the 12 games he played. In his second year that changed as Robinson earned 43 targets in 15 games played. Antonio Gibson continued to be involved but this was clearly Robinson’s backfield in 2023. With Ron Rivera out as head coach, there could be a lot of changes around Robinson on the horizon.
The Move – Hold and see what happens this offseason. The range of outcomes is probably wider than most realize for Robinson depending on what happens over the next few months. The Commanders are going to have a new head coach, and that head coach could want his own offensive coordinator, and have a high chance of taking a rookie quarterback in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft. I want to ride the wave with Robinson who’s shown the ability to be a three-down workhouse and be fairly effective with that. The Commanders could be planning to lean on him in 2024. But there is a chance Robinson’s outlook is looking worse so I don’t really want to be buying.
With their short shelf life and vulnerability to situational changes, running backs often become damaged goods to dynasty managers in the offseason as almost everyone looks to unload them for more stable assets. Finding the right running backs to buy, sell, or hold during these times is vital to your dynasty rosters.
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