IDP Improvements: Moves to Make Before Week 15
Week 15 is upon us, and most fantasy managers are preparing for the first round of their playoffs. We don’t want to rely on players who will be rested or used sparingly in the coming weeks, so at this point in the season, I consider trading away productive veterans on NFL teams who have already made or are close to clinching a playoff spot. I will identify four overachievers who fit that criterion in this week’s article.
Arik Armstead, DT SF – TRADE AWAY
It pains me to list Armstead in this article. He’s unlikely to surpass his 2019 career high of 13 sacks, but the veteran has been extremely disruptive in 2023. His 11.7% pressure rate and seven sacks rank among his top three most productive seasons, and his 20.2% win rate, ranking 14th among all interior defensive linemen, is the highest of his career. He’s in his prime.
Arik Armstead beats TWO players for a #49ers sack on Baker Mayfield! pic.twitter.com/lQTTm6yIiR
— Alex Tran (@nineralex) November 19, 2023
Unfortunately, Armstead is dealing with foot and knee injuries, which forced him to miss the San Francisco 49ers’ 28-16 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers, who secured a postseason berth with that victory, already have a 74% chance to achieve a bye in the first round of the playoffs. It’s reasonable to expect Armstead to receive limited snaps or be rested in their week 15 contest against the 3-10 Arizona Cardinals.
The 49ers restructured Armstead’s contract in September 2023, reducing his cap hit to $12m. In 2024, that cap hit rises to $28.6m, which may be too much for a team projected to have only $1.4m cap space next season.
Trading Armstead at this point is a risky move considering his current form, but it’s fair to wonder if the 30-year-old could produce at a similar level in a different scheme where he’s not surrounded by elite talent.
Mike Danna, EDGE KC – TRADE AWAY
The Kansas City Chiefs have everything to play for. They trail the Baltimore Ravens in the race to the AFC first-round bye, but only two games separate the two teams. However, concerns they may rest their starters are less of a factor in this case, as Mike Danna is simply an inefficient pass rusher. He has achieved a career-high eight sacks in 2023 but has relied on a heavy volume of pass rush snaps to produce, ranking 92nd out of 115 edge rushers in pressure and win rates.
Danna may continue to see heavy snap volume in week 15, but his 2024 outlook is bleak as he’s set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2024. George Karlaftis has taken strides in his sophomore year, first-round rookie Felix Anudike-Uzomah waits in the wings, and Charles Omenihu is under contract through 2024. Sell Danna while you still can.
Alex Anzalone, LB DET – TRADE AWAY
Alex Anzalone is the perfect example of how linebackers don’t need to perform well to remain fantasy-relevant. The veteran has shown improvement in 2023, but he continues to miss tackles at an alarming rate, and his deficiencies in pass coverage have been evident in recent games.
The Detroit Lions re-signed the veteran to a three-year, $18.75m contract in March, seemingly unaware that Jack Campbell would fall to them in the second round of the 2023 draft. Nevertheless, they have given Anzalone every opportunity to hang onto the sole, full-time linebacker role in Detroit, frustrating fantasy managers who expected a more significant impact from Campbell in year one.
In fantasy terms, Anzalone has been productive:
Fear not, Campbell managers, as Anzalone is replaceable. A changing of the guard may not be imminent, but in 2024, the veteran’s cap hit rises from $2.5m to $7.3m. His release would save only $700k, but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where Campbell doesn’t become the top dog in the heart of the Lions’ defense next season. For that reason, the youngster is ranked third in the DLF IDP Rookie Rankings.
The Lions are almost assured to be playing in the first round of the playoffs, so it may be prudent to hold onto Anzalone throughout the fantasy playoffs if you cannot pivot to another every-down linebacker. Just be mindful that you may miss your window to recoup any value if you wait.
Charvarius Ward, CB SF – TRADE AWAY
Ward is arguably the best cover cornerback on the San Francisco 49ers’ roster. He has been targeted eight times less than Deommodore Lenoir but leads the team with 16 pass breakups, more than triple that of Lenoir’s five. Ward has also allowed the lowest passer rating of any cornerback on the roster.
🔥 🔒 This is why we brought in CB Charvarius Ward. He was really jumping off the tape when 49ers decided to go after him at KC. He’s really been locking it down these last two games. His ball skills (pass breakups and interceptions) were much needed. Instead of height/length pic.twitter.com/qn3aCpVKXh
— 49er_Edits (@49er_edits) December 6, 2023
Ward’s cap number jumps from a modest $6.4m in 2023 to an eye-watering $17.9m in 2024. The 49ers should attempt to restructure his contract, but it’s not a given, and the 27-year-old may choose to test free agency.
I’ve made no secret of my preference for trading in-form cornerbacks in fantasy, but I understand the difficulty in doing so. Temper expectations in trade negotiations, and as always, consider the replacement value of finding a substitute on waivers.
Conclusion
The San Francisco 49ers are the only team to have clinched a playoff spot heading into week 15. In the AFC, the Ravens lead the Chiefs and Dolphins in the race to a first-round bye, and it’s reasonable to expect all three teams to put out their strongest lineups until their fate has been sealed. Evaluate your roster, identify other overachieving veterans who may be rested in the weeks ahead, and consider trading them for picks or younger players at premium positions.
